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[tw]

Originally Posted by fargon

tw bite my ASS.

Sorry. Somebody already beat me to it. Nothing is left.

And I don't eat leftovers anyway.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

That sort of thing is mighty rich coming from you, tw.

You're trying to tell us you're worth something. Well, no. You haven't been worth something since age ten. You want to tell anyone how to be worthy? You can't do that: in TW World, *nothing* and *no one* is good, nothing is worthy. *All* things are spoken of only to bitch about them. You're like an Aspberger's case in a permanent bad mood.

Because of that you don't get interacted with very much on-forum. Reptilian brain? You *have all of the reptilian brain,* and you won't share. You have it; we don't get any. Guess we'll just have to enjoy well adjusted mentalities, which concept seems not merely inconceivable to you, but alien.

[Undertoad]

Today on the $100,000 pyramid

The "squad"... the quality of inner city Baltimore... Al Sharpton...

"Things the majority of Americans do not embrace but the Democrats are now defending because of tweets."

[Undertoad]

Tried to find 'em. According to tw we were already in recession in December 2018:

https://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=...on#post1022054

It looked like downturn at the end of 2018, but we've had two quarters of positive growth since then.

Recession is inevitable and they are saying 2020 now.

[henry quirk]

"Tried to find 'em."

And all you, Master of this Domain, could find was this...

https://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=...on#post1022054

...wherein tw (like the broken extremist record he is) lays blame on Trump without a stitch of that 'evidence' he crows about.

So: when tw sez "Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019.", and that he, in this here forum, posted those numbers "multiple times", he, in fact, was lyin', is a liar, and that facts mean nuthin' to him.

#

"Recession is inevitable."

Probably, but -- seems to me -- recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies. Sure, Trump's tariffs could retard the economy, but more likely Keynesian pessimism (and the unamericanism of folks like tw) will retard the economy.

[tw]

People whose information comes from honest sources know leading indicators say a recession apparently started at the the beginning of 2019 (as predicted at the end of 2018).

For example, the Obama economy results in construction permits of
2014 1.04 million
2015 1.18 m
2016 1.20 m
2017 1.28 m
2018 1.32 m

The current trend for 2019 (per marketwatch.com puts that number at 1.14 m - recessionary. Honest news sources have been reporting this. Friends who process this stuff had noted a maybe as much as a 20% drop at the end of last year - and continuing. All leading indicators.

Anyone not educated by propaganda (masking as news sources) also know the inverted yield curves said a recession started in the first quarter 2019. Another leading indicator.

GDP is a lagging indicator. For example, those leading indicators in early 2000 noted that America was not doing as well (but still growing) between 2002 and 2006. So the resulting recession finally appeared in jobs, corporate profit sheets, trade numbers, and GDP in 2006 through 2009.

Extremists only want to be told what to believe. The definition of wackos. Propaganda (lying) sources forget that this is still the tail end of an Obama economy. Extremist are only told lagging indicators. Some were posted above by forgetting its reports on the strength of that Obama economy.

Even stock markets (mostly Republican biased) are questioning this economy. Including an unprecedented 3% drop in one day. They have good reason to fear due to economic destruction obviously and currently implemented by a scum bag president that only extremists could love. Since extremists love anyone who would wreck shit.

Starting about Jan 2018, the stock market indexes where suddenly quite volatile. And have averaged almost no growth in that 18 months. Even markets have become suspicious of this economy.

This suggests (if things do not change) a recession will appear in job losses in a few more years (another lagging indicator that only reports what was happening in the economy many years previously).

Those who get honest news have been watching an ominous situation (and not only in economics - who still deny warning about the Sprately and Parcel islands). A recession is a certainty in part because it has been intentionally created by an extremist president for self serving and egotistical reasons.

This president loves how Putin, Xi, and Kim appeal to his ego. He has harmed American trade. He even insults American allies. American prestige around the world is at an all time low in all but a few places.

American trade in the Obama years increases on average 6.3% exports and 6.5% imports annually. In the past year, both exports and imports are now down (negative) about 0.7%. A number expected to fall as Trump advances himself at the expense of America. And another indication that growth has already stalled. What happens before lagging indicators report this recession years from now.

American annual GDP numbers from 1960 to 2017 have never seen a dip except during 2007 - the only recession that threatened to become as bad as 1929. Citing GDP numbers is a poor indication of a recession since recessions in 1979-1982, 1990-1991, and 2001-2002 do not appear as notable dips in annual GDP numbers.

Leading indicators report a recession has started in the first quarter this year. Extremists educated by Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingles, et al would never learn reality. And clearly do not know what a leading indicator is. People using honest new sources do. It explains why a wacko extremist will post more disparaging comments rather than honest facts.

Some facts posted previous are posted again. The extremist would not know any of this. Extremist propaganda services don't report honestly - just like they lied about Hurricane Katrina and the dead of 5000 good American servicemen for no purpose in a Mission Accomplished war. More facts that exrtremist will ignore to instead post what they were ordered to believe.

[henry quirk]

Again: you said "Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019.", and that you, in this here forum, posted those numbers "multiple times".

I want links to those posts.

Provide them or admit you are a lyin' liar.

[henry quirk]

Recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies having far more to do with Keynesian pessimism than actual down-turns or slowdowns.

'Experts" report a recession is imminent (based solely on their gut, what they believe should happen).

Folks, who see no evidence of a recession now or tomorrow, began actin' as though they were in the midst of one, or that one is around the corner, cuz the 'experts' say it's so.

The 'experts' (and the extremists like you) create the recession by influencing the behaviors of sellers, buyers, and manufacturers with Chicken Little predictions.

[tw]

Originally Posted by henry quirk

Recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies having far more to do with Keynesian pessimism than actual down-turns or slowdowns.

So the Central Committee of the Communist Party has again trained you in what to know.

Funny how concepts such as mathematics, economics, and history say otherwise. Your political handlers will not discuss these things. But they will recommend you get a bigger gun. Always a good solution for an extremist who wants to wreck shit.

[tw]

Originally Posted by tw

People whose information comes from honest sources know leading indicators say a recession apparently started at the the beginning of 2019 (as predicted at the end of 2018).

Economists note that employment has stayed artificially higher since so many companies were trying to import and stock up on supplies from China before the "we want to create recession" tariffs. Masking the fact that previous tariffs had already done economic harm.

From the Economist of 24 Aug 2019:

In recent weeks the humans and silicon brains at Google have registered an alarming rise in searches related to "recession". It is easily explained. As markets gyrate, talk in the press turns to the risk of a slump. Even so, the stories must leave some Googlers baffled. In July, after all, the American economy added some 164,000 jobs and retail sales kept climbing. ...

Today's confusion owes something to the world's odd recent economic history. The last global slump occurred amid an epic financial crisis. The one before that began nearly two decades ago accompanied, again, by the stockmarket crash. Between August 2000 and September 2001 [George Jrs tenure] the S&P 500 index fell by more than 30% and the NASDAQ by more than 60%. Now, by contrast, those indices are pretty much where they were a year ago. Most people cannot remember a recession not linked to financial chaos. But downturns can occur without market meltdowns.

Stock market feel. When did the resulting economic calamity occur? Five years later it appeared in lagging indicators such as jobs.

Apparent are factors that says a downturn has started. While The Don is openly encouraging it to preach to his base - at the expense of this American economy. Lagging indicators (employment, retail sales) will not report this downturn for years. But leading indicator (ie gyrations in the stock market, inverted yield curves, and a new indicator - Google searches) demonstrate The Don has successfully started the downturn.

He raised tariffs on imported steel to protect American steel making jobs. And so US Steel shutdown blast furnaces in its Great Lakes and Gary IN plant in June. Then in Aug announced 200 layoffs for what may be up to six months. Yea, those tariffs really helped. As tariffs always do. They destroy jobs. But it sure makes wacko extremists so love Trump.

[tw]

Meanwhile, an egotist who loves Putin, Xi, and Kim while demonstrating repeated contempt for our closest allies, again, did harm only to make himself look good. Trump released secret satellite photographs of an Iranian rocket pad taken from a satellite that America's enemies are not even suppose to know exists.

Trump's reply. I am the president and can do what I want. People who want to wreck shit love that attitude.

[sexobon]

From what I've read, America's enemies already knew the satellite exists. Even amateur satellite trackers knew about it, had been tracking it, and had projected its capabilities. They just hadn't actually seen the results before; because, the results hadn't previously been in an open source. Any strategic loss due to dissemination would seem to be slight.

Keep in mind; also, that enemies are not the only reason for classifying information. Some things are classified because they're deemed unsuitable for American public consumption (e.g. One can imagine how this information could play into conspiracy theories about the US government spying on American citizens; or, tracking illegal aliens.)

Sometimes it's just a political call that depends on the political climate at the time of classification and again at declassification.

A little about what others already knew, here.

[xoxoxoBruce]

How do we know that's not a CGI image?

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

How do we know that's not a CGI image?

If responsible, then he could have posted pictures from the so many public reconnaissance satellites. But he is egotistical. He wants to show off how much better those secret pictures are.

Everyone knows where satellites are. That was never secret. Unknown is what the many secret ones are and what they do. For example what is the X-37 doing; a spaceshuttle that works better because it has no humans.

Trump simply gave away secret information such as resolution and abilities of KH-11 satellites. Now the 'enemies' have a good idea what they must do to remain hidden. And what they need not do.

Does that satellite have other advanced features such as movable lens (an expression intentionally vague so that another secret function need not be understood). Not known if his pictures also gave away that function.

If responsible, he could have used pictures from publicly available satellites from DigitalGlobe or Geo-Airbus. No. He needed to brag how much better 'his' satellites are.

Which again raises a serious 'off the record' question among psychiatrists. Is he really same? He is clearly not responsible.

BTW, we know how Xi, Kim, and Putin play successfully on his ego. No secret there. And not something that Trump will brag about. Honesty is not one of his features.

[sexobon]

How do we know they didn't lower astronauts down on a cable from the International Space Station to take closeups with their HD cameras.