Iraqis welcome coalition forces

[wolf]

I think that folks in the Iraqi govt. are WISHING that the surrenders were staged ... but wishing does not make it so ...

[wolf]

Originally posted by sycamore
Watch what you say Wolf...next thing you know, there will be immersion classes in Arabic.

Well, I have been wanting to read the Qu'ran, and I've heard that it's meaning and poetry are really better expressed in the original language.

[Undertoad]

A remarkable thing about the video we have seen so far: they left Baghdad's electricity on! Every video I've seen so far as had city lights still on. Right now they are running the video of the destruction of the main presidential palace in Baghdad, and houses in the forefront are lit just fine.

[tw]

South Iraq is Shiite territory - enemy of Saddam. We don't get to see public opinion until forces arrive in Sunni areas - An Najaf, Al-Hillah, Ad-Diwaniyah, and As-Samawah.

But already resistance is found in An Nasiriyah. Only military? We don't know that yet. In the meantime, don't become myopic. There is a whole world out there that will be affected by todays events. Other events that are not being reported domestically.

[russotto]

And why is Shi'ite public opinion less important than Sunni public opinion?

[Undertoad]

On the topic of leaving the electricity on: that was calculated. They have avoided hitting power plants. They're showing the Iraqis that this war is not about them.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2003Mar21.html

In the run-up to the war, defense officials had suggested that the air campaign would showcase what in military jargon is being called "effects-based operations." Essentially, this involves trying to limit the number of munitions that are fired by focusing on the overall effect desired, rather than the extent of destruction.

Under the traditional targeting approach, for instance, if the idea was to shut off the electrical power of an enemy, every power station might be bombed. With the "effects-based" approach, only a few nodes might be hit to produce the same result.

"You do not have to attack each element of that system to make the system not work," Air Force Col. Gary Crowder, chief of strategy, concepts and doctrine at Air Combat Command, which supervises combat aircraft, said at a Pentagon briefing this week.

[tw]

Originally posted by russotto
And why is Shi'ite public opinion less important than Sunni public opinion?

I assume this question is why would Shi'ites not support Saddam whereas Sunnis would? Saddam terrorizes and bastardizes Shi'ites and Kurds. Saddam's support comes from Sunnis. One would only expect Sunni's to fight for Saddam.

However even conscript units that were ordered to surrender have instead ignored their orders and continued to fight Americans and Brits. They may not like Saddam. But many hate the invading Christian Crusader armies even more.

[Undertoad]

The greatest difficulty any ragtag uncommanded conscripts will pose to the US military will be the force of water pressure needed to clean the goo off of our soldiers' boots which used to be their bodies.

[elSicomoro]

Never underestimate the enemy.

[tw]

Tonight's ABC News report is, I believe, a town about 60 miles north of Nasiriyah. The more this news reporter talked to local residents, the more resentful they became. He found no friendly welcome among those residents in direct contrast to images being promoted by our domestic leaders.

That would be an unstable situation. Careful and immediate response by civilian affairs officers can make a significant difference - the all so critical first impression. But the people are not welcoming invading armies with open arms. And those invading armies have yet to confront a real army.

We are not the good guys. We are only the new player. And we know we cannot count on our government to report who is and is not opposed to us. Listen carefully to the reporters. Those little details can be telling.

[Undertoad]

tw & s were absolutely correct - turns out that the folks who were taken POW (and some killed) were part of a supply caravan that was attacked by irregulars.

Still, so far allied forces have been killed/hurt more by themselves than by Iraqis.

[tw]

In the Gulf war, half of coalition casulties were in the transport and support troops. This in a supply line that was relatively safe and short. Here lies a big difference. Even the first major city to be attacked, Umm Qasr, still is not captured. At least combat is still ongoing. 1st Marines apparently gave up trying to take Basara and moved on quickly to catch up with Third Army.

Third Army took one (of three) major bridges in Nasiriyah, then moved on north. One bridge was important for Marines who would cross the Euphrates River and follow 3rd Army northward.

But Iraqi strategy is starting to unfold. Hide out in towns where air power and ground troops don't find them. After major combat forces pass by, then move out to attack supply units. No major cities up the trail have been secured as 1000 Marines discovered when they tried to move in and through those bridges at Nasiriyah in what was to be an undefended town.

Third Army, in the meantime, is spread out from As-Samawah to An-Najaf and probably has armored scouts or special forces in Al-Kufah, north of Najaf (where a camoflagued chemical weapon plant may have been discovered). Next major town will be Karbala which is also downstream of a major lake. This lake may be significant if created by a dam that could be blown to massively flood the Euphrates River Valley - the supply line.

Based upon highways, Third Army will cross east of the Euphrates after Karbala and move into south Baghdad. Marines will cross east of Euphrates at Samawah and head for Baghdad via Ad Diwanyah and Al-Hillah (formally known as Babylon).

But this is not open desert. Futile land with many geological features making armor tank battles more a surprise advantage for defenders. A smart Saddam would have left problems hidden in every town in lower Iraq and prepared his best divisions for combat south of Baghdad.

Army and Marines have serous problems fighting up here. Too far from secure airbases and from supplies in Kuwait and from air support on carriers. Much air support would need to airborne refuel just to get into battle. Already planes in close ground attack are coming back with battle damage - and this has only been skirmishes.

The most critical problem is fuel and delivery of airborne weapons. Unlike the Gulf war where the Saudis provided all fuel for free and quickly, instead this army will have serious fuel problems. Kuwait is supplying some fuel that must be converted - not compatible with military vehicles. Having not secured major cities on rivers, fuel supply could be an even greater problem.

During the Gulf War, the armored flanking attack - the left hook - was stopped time and time again because they did not have fuel. In fact the general in charge of III(?) Corp in that war complained that fuel supply line was 'broken'. This supply line to forces attacking Baghdad is about 4 or five times longer - and not secure. In addition, the civilians and military units are not surrendering as the George Jr administration (apparently) expected in their plans.

I expect severe warfare in the regions south of Baghdad as the Tigris and Euphrates merge onto Baghdad around Karbala, Al-Hindiyah, and Al Musayyib. Saddam's armies first want their attackers on long, expose supply lines, subject to repeated guerilla (irregulars) attack, while attacking in land where air power and long range armor is less effective.

Reporters in Kuwait are saying the population is getting nervous. They were told this Iraq invasion would be a cake walk. They were told Iraqis would surrender in mass numbers. Its not happening.

US Army top generals are finally coming to appreciate special forces. As a result, two major airfields in Western Iraq called H2 and H3 were taken. This may become important. Supply will become a serious problem which is why air access through Israel and Jordan to these airfields may be so essential.

Why are all these important? Attacking armies are suppose to outnumber their opposition three to one. This Anglo/American army has no such advantage. If the battle in S Baghdad bogs down, more combat units will need be rushed in without time to be delivered via Suez Canal, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Persian Gulf. If it gets bad, the Fourth Infantry may even need be rushed from the shores of Turkey through Israel and Jordan. Not that I expect it to get this bad. But with supply lines now so exposed, and with too many Republican Guard in terrain more suited to their equipment, then this worst case scenario cannot be discounted.

[elSicomoro]

MSNBC was just mentioning how troops were moving so fast into Iraq, that they have to let their fuel supply catch up. Also, they're using more fuel than they originally anticipated.

[MaggieL]

Originally posted by wolf

...I've heard that it's meaning and poetry are really better expressed in the original language.

Jubal Harshaw in "Stranger in a Strange Land" :-)

[tw]

Just cannot get enough news. Too much happening. Too little hard news. Since that last post, the sand storm created a third battlefield enemy meaning that the so necessary blunt and fast attack on Iraqi Medina division did not happen. Momentum that is so necessary to the US strategy was lost.

Storm did not stop some critical operations. Somewhere in the Karabala region, a bridge over the Euphrates was taken. The bridge in Al Musayyib is essential for a move onto Baghdad. But that would be deep into enemy territory. Maybe a bridge in Al-Hindiyah which would be east of the 3rd Infantry? Its not on a major highway. Anything in a storm.

In the meantime, a third Marine expeditionary force is said to be traveling up the Trigris River. Major cities would be Al Amarah, then Al Kut - both towns about equal in size to An Nasiriyah. Then the highway leaves swampy land in a direct run to Baghdad, also closing in on 3rd Army's right flank.

Marines that would be moving up between the Tigris and Euphrates are still bottled up with problems in An Nasiriyah.

Meantime in the sand around 3rd Army, a major conflict erupted between 7th Calvary and an unknown Iraqi force. Conflict so violent that 7th Calvary lost armored vehicles including tanks.

Planning for this war was constantly rejected by the political leaders in George Jr's administration who complained the army wanted too much for the job. Generals never dispute their political bosses. But active generals let their opinions be known via retired generals. Widespread quotes from Generals of the 1991 Gulf War. This force does not have sufficient assets to complete the task.

Had the Iraqis been surrendering in mass numbers and had the civilians been welcoming the invaders, then the Baghdad attack may have sufficient forces. Generals say at least two heavy armor units and one armored Calvary to protect supply lines would have been minimally acceptable - but not acceptable to George Jr's administration. Slowly leaking comments from the White House now say this war will take at least two months - so that you will forget how they said how easy this war would be. Expect the war to be longer. Some are putting worst case numbers at 6 months - September. Depends on what happens in the next two weeks.

4th Army has now left and is still leaving Turkey to get to Kuwait. They will not be arriving until 1st week April and probably will not be operational until mid April. Unless there is a sudden, mass defection from Saddam, this war will be much more expensive than the George Jr administration would have us believe. But then many forget why the Gulf War was so easy and cost almost nothing. We had full and very enthusiastic support and cooperation from virtually every nation in the world. This will be an expensive war easily larger than 1/4 of the entire defense department budget.

In the meantime, will sufficient forces arrive just to support a 3rd Army attack on at least 3 divisions of Republican Guards? That just to get to city limits of Baghdad. A block by block fight would be ... well notice the situation in a much smaller city called Nasiriyah - that was suppose to be occupied by enemies of Saddam - Shia.