Vaccination & epidemic

[classicman]

Originally Posted by Perry Winkle

"There are no fundamental philosophical differences; there is bad grammar."

...which is apparently "ruining the English language."

[DanaC]

Not half so much as the bloody spelling. I don't know why we put up with, I really don't.

What we need is a visionary leader.

[Shawnee123]

We need tough legislation. And a mascot. How about the Langwage Bare...he goes from school to school teaching the children to not learn spelling.

[DanaC]

Wouldn't that be the langwij ber?

[Shawnee123]

Yabbut, that looks too much like Lager Beer...and you know how those kids are.

[Undertoad]

I have the book and am now digesting it. er so to speak.

[Clodfobble]

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

this book systematically debunks the methodologies used in each of the studies you are referencing.

I have now reached the point in the book where this is done for the MMR studies. It gives valid reasons why Taylor 1999 is flawed, and Madsen 2002. Then it goes (footnotes are in parens):

Originally Posted by the-book

Other investigators have examined the MMR-autism debate.(11) Several studies compared rising prevalence of reported autism and coverage rates of MMR and found no correlation. (12)(13)(14)(15)(16) Others have failed to find a temporal association of the timing of administration of the MMR vaccination and a clustering of autism diagnoses.(17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22) Several studes looked for a relationship between developmental regression, GI symptoms, and MMR vaccine, and were unable to detect an association.(23)(24)(25)(26) But each of these studies has been widely criticized in the literature for incomplete case ascertainment, methodological flaws, and inherent biases.(27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)

I like the book because it is footnoted beautifully. So far it makes a persuasive case on many things. I am particularly convinced of Clod's earlier point that there is a genetic basis that is aggravated by some other condition. "Oh yeah now I get it"

I was originally skeptical that the book addressed the majority of the studies, but in fact all but one of the MMR studies I mentioned are footnotes 12-26.

However, this is far from a "systematic debunking". And (35) is not a peer-reviewed article, and references PDD, not autism. And two of the footnotes (31 and 32) are actually the same reference. So, we have 15 footnotes referencing studies which find no MMR-autism link, and 7 footnotes that criticize the studies. So I would say he has listed strong criticisms of 2 studies, and given one unpersuasive sentence vaguely dismissing the other 15.

(I would not use the term "debunking" at all in the context of scientific investigation. It's a highly biased and imprecise word.)

So we don't know yet - to really know, what I'd need is the text of the cites. Was there someone willing to retrieve studies for us?

[Flint]

I believe that was Mercenary.

[Undertoad]

How many could you do Merc? We have here roughly 15-20 cites... I'm particularly interested in BMJ 2001 Jul;323(7305):163-4 and N Engl J Med. 2003 Mar 6;348(10):951-4

[Aliantha]

Isn't Merc on vacation at the moment?

[Clodfobble]

I think Pie has access to some medical studies, but I don't know if it's all of them.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

I am particularly convinced of Clod's earlier point that there is a genetic basis that is aggravated by some other condition.

This is really the crux of everything. If it has a cause--and it obviously does--the CDC has an obligation to be looking for it. They are steadfastly not looking for it, at the moment. Some might surmise this is because they know what they will find.

I was discussing this with my mom the other day, and her take on it was, "Why won't they just admit there were mistakes made and move on? Hiding something only makes it worse in the long run." What I had to explain to her is the very real financial side of it--not from the pharmaceutical companies' perspective, from the government's. Current law says that anyone damaged by a vaccine is entitled to compensation. This fund was set up from the very beginning, because they always knew there would be a very small number of people who would have complications from these shots they were mandating--anything from triggering recognized genetic conditions (as opposed to triggering autism, which is not recognized in this fashion yet) to a staph infection at the injection site spreading and causing significant damage.

The minute they acknowledge that vaccines can exacerbate autism, nevermind trigger it, they are opening themselves to quite literally billions of dollars in litigation.

Here is what is going to happen: the outcry will slowly but surely grow until, just like with thimerosal, another few Congressmen have themselves autistic grandchildren. And then Congress will pass a law requiring the CDC to moderate the vaccination schedule, regardless of what the CDC says its studies have found. The CDC will shrug and comply, insisting all the way that there is no link. Autism rates will go down, research will be able to grow without the political baggage because the decision's already been made, and in another 30 years they will be comfortable saying perhaps there was a link after all. By that point we will know so much more about treatment and recovery, and the current autistic population will have aged so much that they will not be on the hook for nearly as much money anymore.

[DanaC]

Meanwhile the news over here is that they are considering making MMR vaccine a requirement for registering with a school.

[Clodfobble]

Really really a requirement, or just a "requirement" like it is over here, where every school official will tell you it is definitely a legal requirement, except that's a total lie and you can file an exemption form and no one can do anything about it?

[DanaC]

Still at the discussion stage, but they're looking at making it a legal requirement for kids to be vaccinated before starting school, and for schools to have to check before admitting a child.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8080681.stm