Bush's Shrinking Safety Zone

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Nah, we're both married, to other people. :p IIRC.

Now Mari, since when do I give you a break? C'mon. Out here where everybody can see, anyway. (PM's are a different story; as soon as I write it, I'm going to shoot you a short essay I've been crystallizing in my fevered RW-Lib brain. )

[wolf]

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

Nah, we're both married, to other people. :p IIRC.

UG is married, I am on the market.

But I do like him, in a way that cannot be used against him in a divorce proceeding, AFAIK.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

As you see. And I never bluster, but pop heads like zits, in those instances where they only contain pus.

Marichiko, whatever her virtues may be, is older than I am, which is old enough to know better -- and she doesn't.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

There are perfectly rational intellectuals who believe that the world is less than 6000 years old.

Perfectly rational? No, sir. "Not clinically insane" is about as far as I can go. "Uninformed" is another adjective that comes to mind.

[tw]

From the Washington Post of 24 July 2006:

'It Looked Weird and Felt Wrong'

From its first days in Iraq in April 2003, the Army's 4th Infantry Division made an impression on soldiers from other units -- the wrong one.

"We slowly drove past 4th Infantry guys looking mean and ugly," recalled Sgt. Kayla Williams, then a military intelligence specialist in the 101st Airborne. "They stood on top of their trucks, their weapons pointed directly at civilians. . . . What could these locals possibly have done? Why was this intimidation necessary? No one explained anything, but it looked weird and felt wrong."

Today, the 4th Infantry and its commander, Maj. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, are best remembered for capturing former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, one of the high points of the U.S. occupation. But in the late summer of 2003, as senior U.S. commanders tried to counter the growing insurgency with indiscriminate cordon-and-sweep operations, the 4th Infantry was known for aggressive tactics that may have appeared to pacify the northern Sunni Triangle in the short term but that, according to numerous Army internal reports and interviews with military commanders, alienated large parts of the population.

Actions by the 4th ID were on paper (the short term perspective) some of the best in Iraq. However the article demonstrates why the 4th ID may have done more than any other unit to create the insurgency. Also called a 'big dic' attitude.

Officially, the insurgency probably started 7 Aug 2003 with a bombing of the Jordanian Embassy. Recently, the civil war may be defined when Sunnis entered a Shi'ite town, lined up all the residents, and massacred them. Currently about 3000 Iraqis are being murdered this way - more the instability directly traceable to an American that even insisted there was no looting.

This was how Lebanon's civil war started. This is but again what America created by violating basic military doctrine from 500 BC. We disbanded the police and army because Bremmer and White House extremists did not even understand basic military science principles. But then where was the president when basic military doctrine was being taugh to his National Guard unit?

This and following Washington Post articles cite confidential military studies that demontrate why we are losing a "Mission Accomplished" war. I will not even attempt to highlight this article because it contains numerous fundamental points that every citizen should understand - some concepts having been posted previously even in The Cellar.

Military experts now say we will probably need at least 100,000 troops in Iraq even 10 to 15 years from now. Deja vue Vietnam.

[tw]

From the Washington Post of 23 July 2006:

In Iraq, Military Forgot Lessons of Vietnam
On May 16, 2003, L. Paul Bremer III, the chief of the Coalition Provisional Authority, the U.S.-run occupation agency, had issued his first order, "De-Baathification of Iraq Society." The CIA station chief in Baghdad had argued vehemently against the radical move, contending: "By nightfall, you'll have driven 30,000 to 50,000 Baathists underground. And in six months, you'll really regret this."

He was proved correct, as Bremer's order, along with a second that dissolved the Iraqi military and national police, created a new class of disenfranchised, threatened leaders.

Exacerbating the effect of this decision were the U.S. Army's interactions with the civilian population.

Some here in the Cellar insisted that Iraqis welcomed Americans. When that Saddam statue was brought down, those in denial refused to acknowledge a damning fact - almost no Iraqis in the street because Americans were not welcome. The fact did not jib with their propaganda. So they falsely insist the majority of Iraqis still feared to be in the streets. Instead they believed the George Jr / Rush Limbaugh lies. Few Iraqis were in that plaza pulling down Saddam's statue because:

Few U.S. soldiers seemed to understand the centrality of Iraqi pride and the humiliation Iraqi men felt in being overseen by this Western army. Foot patrols in Baghdad were greeted during this time with solemn waves from old men and cheers from children, but with baleful stares from many young Iraqi men.

How deep is denial of reality then as it remains today within the mental midget president?

Complicating the U.S. effort was the difficulty top officials had in recognizing what was going on in Iraq. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld at first was dismissive of the looting that followed the U.S. arrival and then for months refused to recognize that an insurgency was breaking out there. A reporter pressed him one day that summer: Aren't you facing a guerrilla war?

"I guess the reason I don't use the phrase 'guerrilla war' is because there isn't one," Rumsfeld responded.

Senior U.S. intelligence officers in Iraq later estimated that about 85 percent of the tens of thousands rounded up were of no intelligence value. But as they were delivered to the Abu Ghraib prison, they overwhelmed the system and often waited for weeks to be interrogated, during which time they could be recruited by hard-core insurgents, who weren't isolated from the general prison population.

How easy do we recruit for the insurgency? We even tortured and called that good. Some in the Cellar even deny anything wrong with toture. Deja vue. We now see what torture caused - another problem directly traceable to the George Jr administration that openly advocates both torture and extraordinary rendition. These are crimes worthy of impeachment.

That summer, retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson, an expert in small wars, was sent to Baghdad by the Pentagon to advise on how to better put down the emerging insurgency. He met with Bremer in early July. "Mr. Ambassador, here are some programs that worked in Vietnam," Anderson said.

It was the wrong word to put in front of Bremer. "Vietnam?" Bremer exploded, according to Anderson. "Vietnam! I don't want to talk about Vietnam. This is not Vietnam. This is Iraq!"

This was one of the early indications that U.S. officials would obstinately refuse to learn from the past as they sought to run Iraq.

Deja Vue Vietnam. I was posting it how long ago? Long before we 'Pearl Harbored' Iraq. Anyone want to acknowledge how predictable this all was because someone first learned history - ie read the Pentagon Papers?

Is Iraq in civil war? Priniciples from previous civil wars to define when that war started now exist in Iraq. Only time will tell whether Iraq gets worse because we invaded iraq as Israel invaded Lebanon. An invasion justified by lies at the highest level of government, without a strategic objective, and therefore has no exit strategy. Deja vue Vietnam.

[Undertoad]

The insurgency dwindles as it is hit, but it is replaced with sectarian violence which kills many more people. This is the civil war that Michael Yon predicted... not very pretty.

[tw]

Clearly we are winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan - every night. From the Washington Post of 8 Aug 2006:

Kabul Wilts Under Power Cuts
The energy crisis has focused growing anger at the government of President Hamid Karzai, who last year appointed a former militia leader and governor with no technical experience as minister of energy and water. Many Kabul residents say they do not understand why, nearly five years after the overthrow of Taliban rule, and with the influx of millions of dollars in foreign aid, the government cannot even light the capital.

Even in more affluent neighborhoods, city-supplied electricity has been reduced this year from about 23 hours a day to five hours every other night. Families cram all their cooking, washing and studying into short, frustrating stints under a couple of dim bulbs.

Officials here say the cause of the shortage is an antiquated urban infrastructure, damaged by years of war, that has failed to keep up with the power demands of a city population that has swelled from half a million when the Taliban were overthrown to nearly 4 million today ...

"I remember before the civil war, we had power 24 hours a day. Now we can't even make tea or keep the clothes clean, and I have to send my daughter out for gas so we can cook dinner on a burner," said Faiz Murza, 62, a retired importer who lives in Kabul's Old City, a district of once-elegant homes ruined by war.

Saddam could provide electricity 24 hours every day in Iraq with antiquated infrastructure and while under a decade long embargo. Taliban could provide electricity 24 hours in Afghanistan. George Jr administration - after five years of 'reconstructiion' - those hours of electricity have dropped from 24 to only five hours.

Just another way to recruit centrists into the ranks of extremists - also called nationalists. No wonder so many American troops must stay another four months in Baghdad - where we are winning the war - just like in Vietnam.

Not only did we not bring in enough troops and do virtually no reconstruction. We cannot even provide enough kilowatts. But kilowatts are so easily produced even with antiquated equipment. Saddam could do it. Taliban could do it. God's chosen president could not?

[tw]

From EE Times of 31 July 2006

Quashed report tracks design exodus
A controversial report suppressed for two years by the Bush administration provides what critics claim is the most exhaustive look yet at the outsourcing of U.S. high-tech jobs. The congressionally mandated report, compiled by the Commerce Department's Technology Administration, also contains stark predictions about the future of U.S. chip design as many more U.S. engineering jobs emigrate to low-cost locations like India.

The 356-page report--details of which were first reported last week by the newsletter Manufacturing & Technology News--was written in July 2004. But it was withheld during a presidential election year, after political wrangling between the White House and Democrats on the House Science Committee failed to reach a compromise on terms of its release. A 12-page summary published at the time omitted many of the final report's controversial findings. This spring, Science Committee members finally reached a deal to pressure the Bush administration to release the full report.

[Hippikos]

Ending the Neocon Nightmare

Witnessing the near-perfect symmetry of Israeli and American policy has been one of the more noteworthy aspects of the latest Lebanon war. A true friend in the White House. No deescalate and stabilize, honest-broker, diplomatic jaw-jaw from this president. Great. Except that Israel was actually in need of an early exit strategy, had its diplomatic options narrowed by American weakness and marginalization in the region, and found itself ratcheting up aerial and ground operations in ways that largely worked to Hezbollah's advantage, the Qana tragedy included. The American ladder had gone AWOL.

More worrying, while everyone here can identify an Israeli interest in securing the northern border and the justification in responding to Hezbollah, the goal of saving Lebanon's fragile Cedar Revolution sounds less distinctly Israeli. Perhaps an agenda invented elsewhere. As hostilities intensified, the phrase "proxy war" gained resonance.

Israelis have grown used to a different kind of American embrace - less instrumental, more emotional, but also responsible. A dependable friend, ready to lend a guiding hand back to the path of stabilization when necessary.

Beyond that, Israel and its friends in the United States should seriously reconsider their alliances not only with the neocons, but also with the Christian Right. The largest "pro-Israel" lobby day during this crisis was mobilized by Pastor John Hagee and his Christians United For Israel, a believer in Armageddon with all its implications for a rather particular end to the Jewish story. This is just asking to become the mother of all dumb, self-defeating and morally abhorrent alliances.

Internationalist Republicans, Democrats and mainstream Israelis must construct an alternative narrative to the neocon nightmare, identifying shared interests in a policy that reestablishes American leadership, respect and credibility in the region by facilitating security and stability, pursuing conflict resolution and promoting the conditions for more open societies (as opposed to narrow election-worship). The last two years of the Bush presidency can be an opportunity for progress or an exercise in desperate damage limitation. It sounds counter-intuitive, but Israel should reflect on and even help reorient American expectations.

[9th Engineer]

Israel does have enemies, interests and security imperatives, but there is no logic in the country volunteering itself for the frontline of an ideologically misguided and avoidable war of civilizations.

Ideologically misguided?? You won't find the ideology coming from Israel, they just finally hit their braking point. Would you really prefer to see Israel forced to retreat and the whole process to begin all over? If they did that all that would happen would be that Hezbollah would be screaming about how powerful and great they are to have defeated the Israeli infidels. That entire 20 mile region should be turned into an uninhabitable wasteland, a proper retribution for all these years of bombings. Next time a group of terrorists starts getting any ideas about strapping on the explosives again all Israel needs to do is run some photos of the devastation on the news with the caption "think hard first".

[Undertoad]

A vast majority of Israelis are in favor of the current action, which has little to do with Palestinians except when Hez missiles land in the West Bank. I've read that the Israeli peace movement that favors that approach to the Pals, is in favor of the current approach to Hezbollah.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

A vast majority of Israelis are in favor of the current action,

Depends on which action. Also the vast majority of Israelis don't want another invasion of Lebanon. Viewing from an informed Israeli perspective, that war without invasion is stupid. Either invade with troops on the ground OR do the only thing that was ever going to create peace. Hippikos has repeatedly made the important points. For example, too many in The Cellar want to view everything in terms of them and us. But as Hippikos demonstrates, it is mostly the fringe groups - the minority - that destroy peace often due to total ignorance and 'big dic' mentalities. So many of 'they' have different perspectives.

Currently we have Israel with a right to defend itself. Having a right means it should be exercised? Exercising that right means it is a solution. Yes according to extremists who always want war (despite what they claim). Extremist 'need for revenge' is accurate as long as the viewpoint is 'them and us' / 'black and white'. Today Israeli warplanes attacked the city of Tripoli. Do you know where Tripoli is? It is in the most northern part of Lebanon. Like Tyre in the south, these cities have nothing to do with Hezbollah. Attacking innocents makes no sense if peace is the objective. Why are innocents (not Hezbollah) being attacked? Just another example of 'Them verses us' / 'good verses evil' / 'black and white' thinking that only pushes everyone into the ranks of extremists. The 'big dic' mentality is alive and well.

Attack on Tripoli only makes more people want war. Attack on Tripoli only justifies more attacks on Israel. Israel attacked Tripoli. That alone justified 1000 more missiles against Israel. And yet Israelis are not so deceived by the 'fog of war' as to not even understand that they are only making more future wars necessary. The 'fog of war' or people too caught up in their rights to seek intelligent thought means more war and peace never possible. This is the situation that extremists love because it empowers extremists and recruits for extremists.

The problem: Israel responded to a kidnapping by attacking innocent Lebanese. Hezbollah, whose mission was defined by the defense of Lebanon, then did what they must do - as defined by their reason to exist. Hezbollah fired unguided missiles into Israel doing almost no damage. This leads to more innocent Lebanese murdered by the hundreds and a few Israelis killed by unguided missiles. Nothing useful accomplished if peace is the objective. More hate created - more extremists recruited - and all is fully justified in rights and the 'big dic' mentality of revenge. Israeli attacks on the innocent are exactly what extremists want.

Who are these extremists? Anti-humanity Israelis and Christian Zionists (also called American evangelicals) are some of those who want to destroy the world, if for no other reason, because they are dumbed down by a 'big dic' mentality - the fog of war. Yes, what Israel is doing is even what Osama bin Laden wants.

How does the informed Israeli instead react? First, the problem is not the 90% of Lebanon who are being attacked, made homeless, and are attacked only because they are all dirty Arabs. The tactical objective is only those Hezbollah missile. Therefore the Israeli army should move in up to the Letani River and expect Israeli casualties in the thousands. IOW either you confront the problem now - or live with it. Second, number of dead Israeli army troops becomes irrelevant once that tactical objective is necessary. An informed Israeli that wants to end this missile problem orders cannon fodder forward to take out those missiles with the only weapon that can do it - ground troops. Massive Israeli deaths in are totally acceptable because the objective is that important.

Don't like the thinking? Sorry. But if the objective is important, then a few thousand Israel dead is justified. Welcome to what extremists would create. Instead attack other innocents with airplanes. It will not solve anything but recruits and empowers the extremists.

Even Likud types fear that invasion because it will then drive centrists back to centrist positions - intelligent thought. Intelligent Israelis would then wake up and appreciate why the 'big dic' mentality only means more war - will never create peace and will always keep extremists in power.

Which brings us to the other solution. Negotiation. Only way to reduce violence - to stop recruiting for the enemy - is to negotiate. Arab league has the only viable offer to settle this - Seven points. And then 20 years of Hezbollah missiles in diminished numbers eventually means peace. Yes, 20 years of extremists trying to create more war - and war not created because no smoking gun exists. Notice that is completely contrary to the 'big dic' mentality. They are only trivial unguided missiles. Ignore them. Only then can peace be at hand. 20 years of minor violence necessary to undo what the 'big dic' mentality - attacking innocent Lebanese - has created.

But again, the 'big dic' mentality of "they killed one of us" will not let this happen. You want to live in Northern Israel? Fine. Expect some to be killed by trivial Hezbollah missiles and eventually Hezbollah has no more purpose because Israel still does not invade. Those unguided missiles are a threat like traffic accidents. Don't respond with a 'big dic' and the problem goes away. Negotiate and eventually the region becomes safe even for an international peace force and for people who would then remove Hezbollah.

That is the informed Israeli position. It will not happen. Too many just don't understand that a few dead neighbors is 'life normal' and is not a 'smoking gun' to justify war. Eventually, peace can happen as the ranks of centrists grow and the ranks of extremists diminish. This begins the only way to create peace. Negotiation complete with periodic and acceptable extremist violence is the only way peace is going to happen. Too many - and that especially includes American Christian Zionists - instead are enthralled by a 'big dic' mentality. To them, the right of revenge means revenge must alway be taken. That extremist 'big dic' agenda means more extremistis in power and more recruits to extremist ranks - and constant war.

Why was Tipoli attacked? Clearly not to stop Hezbollah. And if you don't know where Tripoli is, then that attack was acceptable. Extremism is alive and well - and murdering the other 90% of innocent Lebanese.

[Hippikos]

Yes, in the current fog of war, all reason is lost. Hezbollah is getting more and more support for being the icon in the war against Israel just by not losing and Nasrallah being the new created Muslim hero.

There had been a chance of peace in the 90's but unfortunately got blown away by religious fanatics.

“Naturally the common people don't want war; neither in Russia, nor in England, nor in America, nor in Germany. That is understood. But after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.” (Hermann Goering)

[Undertoad]

Well they're ready to go, so start counting.

But again, the 'big dic' mentality of "they killed one of us" will not let this happen. You want to live in Northern Israel? Fine. Expect some to be killed by trivial Hezbollah missiles and eventually Hezbollah has no more purpose because Israel still does not invade.

Yeah, that's what they've been doing and that's why over 90% of Israel is fed up and in favor of the current operation and the next one too.

Hizbollah attacks along Israel's northern border May 2000 - June 2006

You keep not mentioning these attacks. It's like you don't know about them, or they don't count, or something. Maybe it's a filtering problem on your part, or maybe it's your lousy biased sources.

Other words not appearing in any tw posts: 1559, Syria, assassination, Lebanese Christians.