Obama/Palin 2016/2012

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by tw

If true, then how did someone from the Texas backcountry end up a Washington insider? How did a cowboy from Wyoming become so powerful in Washington?

That wasn't my point. I am saying that in the next few decades I will expect to see rural America, which tends to be conservative, have less and less influence in elections and be forced to change their base. Whether a politician comes from New York City or a town of 50 in Wyoming has no effect on the overall views of the country.

That is why I think the new conservative push for small towns is short-sighted. It may be purely reactionary, which I have a feeling it is, but they should begin to change in the next few decades to support the views of the next generation.

[tw]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

That wasn't my point. I am saying that in the next few decades I will expect to see rural America, which tends to be conservative, have less and less influence in elections and be forced to change their base.

You are suggesting that a generation inspired by "Sienfeld" and "Sex in the City" are the future of political power? I am confused why this was not always a political power force or why this 'force' is currently becoming stronger. What changed?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by tw

You are suggesting that a generation inspired by "Sienfeld" and "Sex in the City" are the future of political power? I am confused why this was not always a political power force or why this 'force' is currently becoming stronger. What changed?

My prediction is that middle class individuals will start to move from the suburbs to renewed urban areas and that process will in turn change the political spectrum of the United States.

While I don't believe it will be the driving force behind the switch I do believe that gas prices can have the possibility and influence to greatly change the demographics of the urban/suburban areas. When gas prices reach a certain level, many will not be able to afford to drive twenty minutes one way to work and another the way back.

So in response to this, we either have to find very fuel efficient cars, heavily rely on mass transit, or move back towards the city.

Fuel efficient or alternative fuel cars may provide a solution in terms of price but workers will still have to spend 40 minutes+ driving to and from work. Questioning if that drive is worth it will be another leading factor.

Relying heavily on mass transit would be a good solution but unrealistic in my mind. Even if we could cut the time from getting to a suburban drop off point to an urban drop off point to five minutes, the workers will still have to spread out and go to their different jobs throughout the city, which will take much longer than fifteen minutes. Unless we somehow change city planning so people working in one area of the city lives by a certain drop off point I don't see this being a realistic solution.

Moving back to the city will be the last solution. Price and time spent going to and from work will drop down to nearly zero. If this happened new schools will be built and families will be able to live in nice condos. Not the same as a suburban or rural home but it will be satisfactory to many.


So what I can see happening is that some workers will start moving back towards the city (the rich and lower middle class(??) first) and then when urban renewal goes into full swing, it will become more preferable for many to live in the city than suburbs so more middle class individuals will move as well.

The other force will be a second "white flight" type thing. Right now I see the inner suburbs turning into slums and as more urban communities become "renewed", the current residents will be forced out to live in the now cheaper suburbs. Once the income level drops and the area starts to become slums, the rest of the middle class will be forced out not wanting to deal with the problems that come with living in a slum.



So when the middle class starts to become more urban, the political views of many will start to shift as well. I don't think it will be drastic, but it will be enough to change the base of the Republican Party. People will become more socially acceptable and socially liberal. Economics I cannot predict but I assume the change from large homes to condos will change some views but I'm not positive.