Somebody knows somth'in bout birth'n hurricanes - Page 6

tw · 10-19-2005, 03:14 AM

There is no Betty and there is no Hurricane Barney. Fred is scheduled to arrive in 2009. And Wilma threatens to be a real bitch this weekend.

Kitsune · 10-19-2005, 07:46 AM

She's the most intense hurricane ever, this morning. 881mb. Wilma dropped 85mb in just 12 hours.

wolf · 10-19-2005, 02:27 PM

I'm wondering ... if she heads across Florida from West to East, when she gets out into the Atlantic, will she bounce off the Gulf Stream and hit the Carolinas as a parting gift?

Kitsune · 10-19-2005, 02:50 PM

Expect a significant predicted track change at 5pm, today. The incoming low isn't as low as they thought.

Wilma is gonna be wild.

shoot · 10-19-2005, 03:06 PM

are the evacutating your area Kitsune? My dad has a place in Pt Charlotte and he went down there last weekend but noone has heard from him. Ive called everyday this week and have gotten no response, and now they are projecting this storm to come in right about there. Just curious about the mentality of the area at present.

Kitsune · 10-19-2005, 03:48 PM

A couple people have mentioned something about a hurricane in passing, but otherwise... not much.

Well, kind of.

Its too early to tell where Wilma wants to go and so everything here is currently business as usual. There are no boards up, yet, and I even have work scheduled on Sunday. I'm sure it might be somewhat different to the south of me, but even they have to continue on with their lives. If everything stopped everytime a hurricane set her gaze on the penninsula, we'd have absolutely no progress at all every June through November. I've simply made sure I have enough gasoline to get out of town, but I've not even packed up anything, yet. With a projected landfall not until Sunday and now the change to BAMM and GFDL that projects Wilma might not even hit FL, leaving now is far too early and preparing in any major way is questionable these days, anyways. As my friends in New Orleans said after their experience (they did end up losing their apartment and a lot of their belongings due to a partial roof failure), "Grab cash and get out. Your friends, your family, and your insurance company will take care of much more than water purification tablets and canned food ever would." Riding these things out just isn't as fun as people make it out to be, especially when hurricanes like Charley with a projected landfall of a category one come to shore suddenly with a different path and 145+mph winds.

Come Friday, midday, I'll make my decision if she continues towards the west coast. Friday night or Saturday morning, I'll be out of here if she proves a threat. I-75, SR301, and US441 will be parkinglots. Nothing new, there.

It is important to note that unless she gets much larger, this will be a very small storm. In fact, if Wilma were to hit thirty miles from me and come inland right now, we'd get a slightly breezy day with some normal summer-like rainfall. When Charley hit Punta Gorda, my area of Tampa (the original target and in a total state of panic at the time!) saw a light mist of rain and barely a breeze. Wilma's eye is only 4mi in diameter and the hurricane force winds only extend out ~15mi. This is going to change, of course, but so is the intensity and windspeed as she moves into cooler waters North of the Keys.

...if she does so. This is very much a wait and see game in FL and, as usual, it is a nerve-racking experience. I tend to get sick to my stomach watching the news, checking the tracks, and waiting. In the previous two years, I've tried to learn to not think about it until about 48 hours before landfall. With the way the media is treating these storms, that proves really tough, anymore. But until they get close, there is not much to do and there is absolutely nothing that can be done through worrying. In an odd twist, if I had no outside media notification at all, I would have found the windy storms we got in 2004 to be curious and annoying because of the power outtages, but not much else. Aside from cause me to turn up a bottle of rum and run outside to beg the sky for mercy, the concern shown more than two days out did no good at all.

Kitsune · 10-20-2005, 09:03 AM

A beautiful, yet ominous sight, this morning around 8am: I rushed to the deck on hearing an amazing roar and saw scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. I'm not sure what base they're from, but the military even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.

tw · 10-20-2005, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitsune

A beautiful, yet ominous sight, ... scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. ... even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.

Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?

What we do know - George Jr did not have to read a PDB or make a decision before those planes could be evacuated. But to do same for you requires George Jr to make a decision. Ominous.

Kitsune · 10-20-2005, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw

Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?

Uh... wha? I don't know what you're getting at.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw

What we do know - George Jr did not have to read a PDB or make a decision before those planes could be evacuated. But to do same for you requires George Jr to make a decision. Ominous.

I dunno, I figured the bases probably made the decision to fly those planes out. It really is in their best interest.

I've always felt that I could evacuate whenever I wanted to -- I sure as hell aren't waiting for the pres to give the word since it isn't even his responsibility. If you're talking about the issued voluntary and mandatory evac orders by the gov, I'd like to remind everyone that the evac zones and evac statements that are based on storm category have nothing to do with survival. All of them are based on tidal flooding and the ability of emergency services to access the area. The evac orders have nothing to do with your roof coming off, your home collapsing, etc. If a category five comes inland, I will not be told to leave...but I'm not sticking around for the storm!

I've never quite felt left behind during any of the hurricanes, in fact. Actually, much to the contrary -- the Florida Shrub at least fakes that he knows what he's doing in these situations. Maybe because we've had a lot more hurricanes in recent years, but Jeb gives a reasonable presentation on television and actually plays it fairly professional. "Emergency Services will not come for you during or for sometime after the hurricane. Prepare now, not moments before." The tax holiday issued at the beginning of this year for hurricane supplies, while not the best of ideas, at least got a lot of us thinking about our plans and got some of us to head to the store early for plywood, generators, etc.

Florida isn't New Orleans, but Andrew/Homestead years ago did prove it has the potential to be. I just don't allow myself to be placed in the position that would cause me to have to endure it.

tw · 10-20-2005, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitsune

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw

Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?

I dunno, I figured the bases probably made the decision to fly those planes out. It really is in their best interest.

Exactly. Those squadrons did not need 'glorious leader' to make a decision. Apparently, you too need not feel like 100,000 in New Orleans - dependent on a president and his personal respresentative making a decision. So the answer is simply, "No".

No, you don't feel like 100,000 residents in New Orleans who could not get out - as a president, so in denial, did a San Diego fund raiser while a killer hurricane beat down on those 100,000. Same man who said, "No body expected the levees to be breached." No, you are not at the mercy of George Jr.

Actually you have little to worry about. Cheney is now back from vacation. The real president is now making decisions. But just imagine how ominious it would be if you had to depend on George Jr to make a decision - as even the military was bugging out. Ominous.

BTW, no hurricane has balls enough to go after the Cellar. God saves the Cellar. Ominous.

Kitsune · 10-19-2005, 03:51 PM

The magic number, by the way, is sixty miles. All predicted tracks twenty-four hours out in the past ten years have never been off by more than sixty miles. If anything appears to get close to that threshold, its time to get out.

xoxoxoBruce · 10-20-2005, 03:05 AM

Looks like naples.

tw · 10-20-2005, 10:32 PM

Wilma will proabably past west of this data buoy. However on Thursday night, data buoy 42056 may measure some of the largest waves. Currently they are at 33 feet. 40 feet would be very unusual. And then, will this buoy survive:
Yucatan Basin Data Buoy

Elspode · 10-21-2005, 01:34 PM

Looks like it not only survived, but the worst has passed?

richlevy · 10-22-2005, 01:14 PM

This just in.

Quote:

System Failures Seen in Levees
The massive failures of levees in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, which flooded the city and caused hundreds of deaths, resulted from flaws at almost every level in the conception, design, construction and maintenance of the region's flood-control system, according to the preliminary findings of investigators.

The Army Corps of Engineers, local levee boards in Louisiana and other agencies failed to grasp warning signs over the last decade that the levees were not as strong as expected, reflecting a cultural mind-set that did not pay enough attention to public safety, according to Robert Bea, an engineering professor at UC Berkeley who is part of a National Science Foundation investigating team.

Now I know that I am in for another TW lecture here, but it doesn't seem too improbable that a system built in the 1900's and updated as late as the 1980's might be obsolete by todays standards. The question becomes "why wasn't this addressed"?

Quote:

Construction defects also may have played a role. Analysis of concrete samples from the 17th Street Canal shows that the levee fractured in ways that suggest the material was substandard.

Let me see, substandard materials in a public construction contract. Who would have guessed?

10-19-2005, 02:27 PM	#3
wolf lobber of scimitars Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Phila Burbs Posts: 20,774	I'm wondering ... if she heads across Florida from West to East, when she gets out into the Atlantic, will she bounce off the Gulf Stream and hit the Carolinas as a parting gift? __________________ wolf eht htiw og "Conspiracies are the norm, not the exception." --G. Edward Griffin The Creature from Jekyll Island High Priestess of the Church of the Whale Penis

10-20-2005, 03:05 AM	#12
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	Looks like naples. __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

10-21-2005, 01:34 PM	#14
Elspode When Do I Get Virtual Unreality? Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Raytown, Missouri Posts: 12,719	Looks like it not only survived, but the worst has passed? __________________ "To those of you who are wearing ties, I think my dad would appreciate it if you took them off." - Robert Moog

10-19-2005, 03:14 AM	#1
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	There is no Betty and there is no Hurricane Barney. Fred is scheduled to arrive in 2009. And Wilma threatens to be a real bitch this weekend.

10-19-2005, 07:46 AM	#2
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	She's the most intense hurricane ever, this morning. 881mb. Wilma dropped 85mb in just 12 hours.

10-19-2005, 02:50 PM	#4
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	Expect a significant predicted track change at 5pm, today. The incoming low isn't as low as they thought. Wilma is gonna be wild.

10-19-2005, 03:06 PM	#5
shoot Smooth Ruffian Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: central KY Posts: 47	are the evacutating your area Kitsune? My dad has a place in Pt Charlotte and he went down there last weekend but noone has heard from him. Ive called everyday this week and have gotten no response, and now they are projecting this storm to come in right about there. Just curious about the mentality of the area at present.

10-19-2005, 03:48 PM	#6
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	A couple people have mentioned something about a hurricane in passing, but otherwise... not much. Well, kind of. Its too early to tell where Wilma wants to go and so everything here is currently business as usual. There are no boards up, yet, and I even have work scheduled on Sunday. I'm sure it might be somewhat different to the south of me, but even they have to continue on with their lives. If everything stopped everytime a hurricane set her gaze on the penninsula, we'd have absolutely no progress at all every June through November. I've simply made sure I have enough gasoline to get out of town, but I've not even packed up anything, yet. With a projected landfall not until Sunday and now the change to BAMM and GFDL that projects Wilma might not even hit FL, leaving now is far too early and preparing in any major way is questionable these days, anyways. As my friends in New Orleans said after their experience (they did end up losing their apartment and a lot of their belongings due to a partial roof failure), "Grab cash and get out. Your friends, your family, and your insurance company will take care of much more than water purification tablets and canned food ever would." Riding these things out just isn't as fun as people make it out to be, especially when hurricanes like Charley with a projected landfall of a category one come to shore suddenly with a different path and 145+mph winds. Come Friday, midday, I'll make my decision if she continues towards the west coast. Friday night or Saturday morning, I'll be out of here if she proves a threat. I-75, SR301, and US441 will be parkinglots. Nothing new, there. It is important to note that unless she gets much larger, this will be a very small storm. In fact, if Wilma were to hit thirty miles from me and come inland right now, we'd get a slightly breezy day with some normal summer-like rainfall. When Charley hit Punta Gorda, my area of Tampa (the original target and in a total state of panic at the time!) saw a light mist of rain and barely a breeze. Wilma's eye is only 4mi in diameter and the hurricane force winds only extend out ~15mi. This is going to change, of course, but so is the intensity and windspeed as she moves into cooler waters North of the Keys. ...if she does so. This is very much a wait and see game in FL and, as usual, it is a nerve-racking experience. I tend to get sick to my stomach watching the news, checking the tracks, and waiting. In the previous two years, I've tried to learn to not think about it until about 48 hours before landfall. With the way the media is treating these storms, that proves really tough, anymore. But until they get close, there is not much to do and there is absolutely nothing that can be done through worrying. In an odd twist, if I had no outside media notification at all, I would have found the windy storms we got in 2004 to be curious and annoying because of the power outtages, but not much else. Aside from cause me to turn up a bottle of rum and run outside to beg the sky for mercy, the concern shown more than two days out did no good at all.

10-20-2005, 09:03 AM	#7
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	A beautiful, yet ominous sight, this morning around 8am: I rushed to the deck on hearing an amazing roar and saw scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. I'm not sure what base they're from, but the military even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.

10-19-2005, 03:51 PM	#11
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	The magic number, by the way, is sixty miles. All predicted tracks twenty-four hours out in the past ten years have never been off by more than sixty miles. If anything appears to get close to that threshold, its time to get out.

10-20-2005, 10:32 PM	#13
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	Wilma will proabably past west of this data buoy. However on Thursday night, data buoy 42056 may measure some of the largest waves. Currently they are at 33 feet. 40 feet would be very unusual. And then, will this buoy survive: Yucatan Basin Data Buoy

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