Beijing--rainstorm

[jaguar]

The naval exercises in the area last week by the US were an interesting move, there is no way I can see either side letting it get to war, the stakes are too high.

Economically the war would be a disaster for everyone, Taiwan is a major manufacturing base for a sweet fuckload of electronics, those facilities being destroyed or taken offline for weeks or months would play havoc, not to mention the cost of a US/China war and what that could bring about.

The other factor is that China really only has a very limited 'blue water' naval capacity, this is changing but it's nowhere near a scale where it could match the US in a sea war, it's airforce is not there either.

In short, I don't doubt China's ability to turn Taiwan into dust I doubt it's ability to launch a full scale invasion and hold it against US forces, possibly including a US blockade after such an invasion. Taiwan itself also has a very and growing capable navy that could play havoc with the kind of merchant naval capability China would use in such an event, I know that China could afford to lose 20-30k troops at sea without real worry but their amphibious capability is not amazing and a lot dates back to the 60/70s. The requirement to use a merchant naval element to land enough troops would give at least 24hour notice to hostile intel services, long enough to bolster defenses, start moving in US forces, landing bombers and preparing anti-landing defenses.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Kerry won't do that, though.

......

[Billy]

Many TW electronics remove their factories such as BenQ, Acer, VIA, into China mainland. So they don't hope war. No one like war, but we cannot let our land depart. We must try out best to protect our mother land.

Now the two sides all don't hope the war, but the war risk is on rocket. Hope we find other peaceful way to resolve it.

Originally Posted by Billy

Many TW electronics remove their factories such as BenQ, Acer, VIA, into China mainland. So they don't hope war. No one like war, but we cannot let our land depart. We must try out best to protect our mother land.

Now the two sides all don't hope the war, but the war risk is on rocket. Hope we find other peaceful way to resolve it.

严重支持!!!!!!!!! :thumpsup: :thumpsup:

[alamuhan]

ok, let's go on

hi Burce

Hope peace...

[jaguar]

bluesdave, a case of grumbling and echos, from what I can get my grubby paws on it seems someone tipped off a hostile intel service about something funny going on which bounced up the line resulting in the recent exercises in the region which didn't amuse china...There is a serious internal battle going on inside the chinese government at the moment.

The biggest danger is if war results due to internal.....unfriendlyness inside the chinese government at the moment, this is a real possibility. Both sides are rational and the ramifications from China would be both large and highly detrimental, I have interests in 2 facilities in China and I know if such an event occurred I'd be pulling escape clauses and getting the hell out.

[bluesdave]

Thanks Jag.

[Billy]

I don't think China navy is strong enough. We still afraid that the USA and other western countries, especially Enlglish, will block China.

I hate any war. I don't like watch the USA and other countries's people beheaded in Iraq.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by Billy

I don't think China navy is strong enough. We still afraid that the USA and other western countries, especially Enlglish, will block China.

I hate any war. I don't like watch the USA and other countries's people beheaded in Iraq.

That wouldn't make sense, Billy. With all the money invested in Chinese production and being dependant on the Chinese goods, by all the western countries. Walmart wouldn't allow it.

[Billy]

I posted good Kuangfu movie pix in Entertainment. Hope you go to see and like.

[jaguar]

breakingnews, you might want to read some Chinese history to understand how and why.

[breakingnews]

Originally Posted by jaguar

breakingnews, you might want to read some Chinese history to understand how and why.

How and why what?

I won't say I'm an expert on Chinese history (not modern chinese history at least - I've studied ancient history through a few centuries ago).

[Billy]

Originally Posted by jaguar

breakingnews, you might want to read some Chinese history to understand how and why.

Agree your points on BN

My home town has the flood in Henan provience, China now. I will go home to see my famlies on 25, July.

As you saw on the pic, the girl's shirt is that I AM YOURS FOREVER. She presents Taiwan and the boy is whole China.