Middle East erupts

[Undertoad]

However, they did not 'feel the wind'.

Michael Totten, April 28, 2006:

"Everything Could Explode at Any Moment"

Lisa and I met Israeli Defense Forces Spokesman Zvika Golan at a base in the north near the border. He told us to follow him in his jeep as he drove to a lookout point next to an IDF watch tower that opened up over Lebanon.

“You aren’t safe here right now,” he said.

“I know,” I said. “The Lebanese army wouldn’t let me anywhere near the border two weeks ago. What’s going on?”

“Hezbollah is planning an operation,” he said.

“How do you know?” I said.

“We know,” he said and nodded.

I knew he was right. The Lebanese intelligence officer more or less told me the same thing. He didn’t say the threat was from Hezbollah, but he didn’t have to.

...

The lieutenant was easily ten years younger than me. But he was so ground down from world-weariness he sounded like a man 30 years older who hadn't slept for three days.

“Any minute now something huge could break out," he said. "I am afraid to go home and leave my soldiers. When Hezbollah decides to do something, they do it. And they’re pretty good at it.”

"What do you think they'll do next?" I said.

“I have no idea," he said. "They could do anything. Kidnapping. Sniper.”

[wolf]

I was flipping around and watched a couple of reports on Fox, CNN, and MSNBC.

An idea started in my head, and I feel a need to express it, because, well, it's not a very nice idea, but I think it could use some kicking around.

Given the general instability in the Middle East ... Do you think that the Israelis would sacrifice themselves (and their country) if by doing so they could bring about the ultimate fall of Islam and the Arabic Countries? They know that Judaism would survive, as there are more Jews (by culture and by religion) in the rest of the world than there are in Israel.

[tw]

Originally Posted by wolf

Given the general instability in the Middle East ... Do you think that the Israelis would sacrifice themselves (and their country) if by doing so they could bring about the ultimate fall of Islam and the Arabic Countries?

Deja vue Vietnam. We only needed kill enough 'enemies' to win the war. Such tactics never work. They even violate fundamental military science. As a result, we killed every person in N Vietnam three times over, as Gen Westmoreland's own numbers proved. Meanwhile, he says we lost because we did not kill enough. Because he did not have enough troops. Because we were not willing to stick it out.

Only solution to such violence is actions that drive centrists out of extremist ranks. One method is to impose 10% casualties on all sides. Sell weapons freely so that all are suffering massacres. Only when centrists are driven back to a centrist political mindset, then a solution occurs - also called negotiation.

The entire purpose of war is only to get a conflict back to a negotiation table. If not obvious, then a proposal is nothing more than fiction. What is the largest number of books in the library? Fiction. Too many have ideas without first learning reality. Only solution is found in the purpose of war. The George Jr administration is chock full of fiction writers. Even worse, many Americans so hate this country as to believe their fiction.

One solution to Lebanon is to arm or to restrict arms to all sides so that 10% of each population is killed. Then centrists will obviously be regarded as the only solution.

Problem is not arabs or jews. Problem are the extremists in ranks of those populations. If you still belive myths about 'good and evil' then appreicate where the problem lies - in maybe 10% of the population. Therefore all jews and all arabs involved have become evil. They did not turn about and shoot the only evil ones among them. You tell me how that solution will be implemented. It will not. An only solution is found in this defintion - 'the purpose of war'.

[dar512]

Originally Posted by tw

Only solution to such violence is actions that drive centrists out of extremist ranks. One method is to impose 10% casualties on all sides. Sell weapons freely so that all are suffering massacres. Only when centrists are driven back to a centrist political mindset, then a solution occurs - also called negotiation.

tw, can you give an example where this scenario was attempted and succeeded?

[tw]

Originally Posted by dar512

tw, can you give an example where this scenario was attempted and succeeded?

Serbia. No their casulties did not get to 10%. A rapid rise in casulties on the Serbian side (to approach what others were suffering) resulted in Milosevik even negotiating himself out of leadership. Raising casulties that much and that fast empowered centrists to demand better government; to separate themselves from the ranks of extremists.

[tw]

Israel as a proxy for US policy is hoping for a multinational force in that 20 miles inside Lebanon. Condi Rice is running interference for Israel to attack not just those 20 miles inland, but also any other innocents that might help Hezbollah anytime in the future. There is no other reason for 1 in 5 Lebanonese to now be homeless. It is now US policy to fix things with military pre-emption because the US has declared containment as a failed policy. Somehow we will fix things by killing off 'evil' people.

Condi Rice will go to Rome to recruit nations for that multinational force. Any nation that 'signs on' would be a fool. Interesting will be how much US strongarms some nations. Which leaders have the balls to stand up for their own nations and to oppose the 800 pound guerilla?

Why would anyone want to stop a war between the Hatfields and McCoys. Even worse, this Middle East war is also about religion - a worst type of war. Any nation entering as a peacekeeper will be attacked (even accidently) by both sides and maybe by so many innocent Lebanonese who also become embittered. There is no 'mind set' among any parties for peace. None.

Obviously, a peace keeping force can only work when all sides (there are far more than 2) want peace. That is not and will not be the condition between Hezbollah and Israel. Israel only wants to kill off Hezbollah - a creation of Israeli's most extremist zionists. Hezbollah is basically the only force in Lebanon defending Lebanon from Israeli attacks. You may not believe it. But your isolated perspective does not matter. Only matters is what those locals believe.

And so again, what nation would be so foolish as to enter as an international peacekeeper when both side are so wrong, so violent, and don't really want peace? Both sides want more of what they already have or cannot have.

Israel as a proxy for US politics says Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. Literally everywhere in the Middle East - even in a US puppet government in Iraq - all others say otherwise. All others says this administration is wrong. And all others are telling this to US diplomats 'face to face' - because US bias of Hezbollah is considered so wrong in the Middle East - even in Saudi Arabia.

So what will happen in Rome? Will those potential peacekeepers understand the futility of peacekeeping? Most interesting will be which world leaders can stand up to an 800 pound guerilla that has a personal agenda. At this point, peacekeeping is asking for dead soldiers. Total foolishness would also be a peacekeeping force that is not at least 400,000 or 700,000 men. How stupid would a peacekeeping force be? No peacekeeping force of sufficient size will be deployed. Even the US refuses to participate. We will learn which world leaders don't represent the interests of their own countries; will 'sign on' to a fool's errand; can be manipulated to what only America wants.

[Ibby]

Hmmm... that's a really interesting idea... I personally don't think they would do it, but I'm not exactly an expert on Israeli culture and such.

[Aliantha]

Hmmmm...Jewish people aren't martyrs are they?

[bluecuracao]

Hey, Jesus was a Jew!

Ooh boy.

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by bluecuracao

Hey, Jesus was a Jew!

Just saw Clerks 2, didja? :-)

[wolf]

Originally Posted by Aliantha

Hmmmm...Jewish people aren't martyrs are they?

You clearly never met my friend's grandmother ... she was one of the old fashioned, "I'll just sit here alone in the dark" type ...

I'm not saying that they want to die, or have the country turned into glass ... but if every last man, woman, and child is wiped off the map, they'll be 6 million more Jews from around the world ready to move in and start over.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by wolf

You clearly never met my friend's grandmother ... she was one of the old fashioned, "I'll just sit here alone in the dark" type ...

I'm not saying that they want to die, or have the country turned into glass ... but if every last man, woman, and child is wiped off the map, they'll be 6 million more Jews from around the world ready to move in and start over.

Interesting thought, but it's hard to repopulate a radioactive wasteland.

If you're in an apocalyptic state of mind, here's something to think over, a list of Israeli airbases.

Meggido
Designated Shachar 7 by the IDF/AF. ICAO code: LLMG. Location coordinates: N32 35.0 E035 14.0, elevation 200 ft (61 m). One runway 09/27 degrees of 7710 ft (2350 m) length. Opened in 1942. Served as an auxiliary field to Ramat David. Currently home to a gliding club, a detachment from Unit 505 and some agricultural aircraft used in the Izre-el valley. Light aircraft/helicopter wartime foward operating base. During the Six Day War, a Tu-16 was shot down by a local AA battery and crashed directly on the field. The defecting Syrian MiG-23 landed here.

For anyone who knows their bible, Armageddon is derived from Meggido.

The word Armageddon is thought to be derived from the Hebrew words Har Megido (הר מגידו), meaning "Mountain of Megiddo". The site referred to is a valley plain called Megiddo, the location of many decisive battles in ancient times, including the Battle of Megiddo. There is no literal "mountain of Megiddo" anywhere in the Promised Land, although there is an archaeological mound nearby, representing the ruins of at least 20 cities that flourished between 5,000 years ago and 650 BC. Some would argue that the word Armageddon is an early example of a mondegreen.
The only mention of the word Armageddon in the Bible appears in Revelation 16:16: "And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon" (KJV).[1]

If it had more than one runway, I'd say that's a great place to store nuclear weapons.

[wolf]

Originally Posted by richlevy

Interesting thought, but it's hard to repopulate a radioactive wasteland.

People seem to be living and thriving in Hiroshima and Nagasaki ...

IIRC, the residual radiation from a nuclear bombing is not the same sort of stuff that contaminated Chernobyl. Different half-lives.

Do you think there is truth to the stories about the "Sampson Option?"

[Trilby]

I read in the paper today that the bunkers Hezbollah are hiding in must have taken YEARS to build. That's an interesting bit of information. This doesn't bode well at all.

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Brianna

I read in the paper today that the bunkers Hezbollah are hiding in must have taken YEARS to build.

Well, they've been occupying the area for decades. They didn't spend the time playing volleyball.