Does Anyone feel like Bailing

[classicman]

Then post the numbers for that time frame tw - otherwise we can extrapolate that the same ratio's prevailed then as they did in my example.

[classicman]

Moving along...
Obama, Geithner get low grades from economists

U.S. President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner received failing grades for their efforts to revive the economy from participants in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
The economists' assessment stands in stark contrast with Mr. Obama's popularity with the public, with a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll giving him a 60% approval rating. A majority of the 49 economists polled said they were dissatisfied with the administration's economic policies.

On average, they gave the president a grade of 59 out of 100, and although there was a broad range of marks, 42% of respondents rated Mr. Obama below 60. Mr. Geithner received an average grade of 51. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scored better, with an average 71.
Economists were divided over whether the $787 billion economic-stimulus package passed last month is enough. Some 43% said the U.S. will need another stimulus package on the order of nearly $500 billion. Others were skeptical of the need for stimulus at all.

However, economists' main criticism of the Obama team centered on delays in enacting key parts of plans to rescue banks. "They overpromised and underdelivered," said Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital. "Secretary Geithner scheduled a big speech and came out with just a vague blueprint. The uncertainty is hanging over everyone's head."

Mr. Geithner unveiled the Obama administration's plans Feb. 10, but he offered few details, and stocks sank on the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down almost 20% since the announcement, as multiple issues have weighed on investors' confidence. The Treasury secretary has since appeared before Congress and offered more specifics but has said action on key parts of the plan still is weeks away.

Amid all the gloom, there is a bright spot: Four-fifths of the economists said now is a good time to buy equities, especially if the investor has a long-term view.

Yeh bet they'd love to sell you theirs.

[lookout123]

er... probably not classic. if they don't have to sell their holding to raise capital the prices now are fantastic for a long term investor. wish i has more money right now, I'd definitely be buying. (well I might wait for a little pullback after the last two days but you know what I mean.)

[ZenGum]

Lookout, I have a little money now (15 to 20 thou, Australian) which is presently earning 3.75% in a government-guaranteed AA-rated capital secure bank account (me, paranoid? sometimes!). I plan to invest in something a bit more risky with the hope of riding the general economic recovery to a nice capital gain.
I am looking for some solid types of investment that (a) aren't going to up and die (b) whose buy in price has fallen a lot in the last 6 months (thus has a lot of potential to increase) and (c) should lead the way out of a recession, i.e. will be amongst the first to recover.

I am presently thinking of shares in oil producing companies, or the Big Four Australian banks, or wide base retailer (woolworths eg).

What exactly is it you are thinking of buying? Any suggestions?

[sugarpop]

If I had money to invest, I would invest in the green technologies of the future.

[lookout123]

I can't name anything specific because I am legally liable in case any dumbass loses money and decides to sue me based on something they saw on the interwebz.

Questions you need to ask yourself:

How long before I plan on needing the money out of this investment?
Do I have the cajones to ride out any volatility that comes my way?
What percentage of my total assets should I put in any one asset class?
What asset classes tend to do well through multiple market cycles and currently are near their historic low P/E?


Answer those questions and you will find yourself most of the way to an appropriate answer for you.

[lookout123]

Originally Posted by sugarpop

If I had money to invest, I would invest in the green technologies of the future.

What political fads have come and gone in the past and how good are you at guessing when a fad ends in favor of something else?

[sugarpop]

Originally Posted by lookout123

What political fads have come and gone in the past and how good are you at guessing when a fad ends in favor of something else?

Well see, I don't believe green technologies ARE fads. I believe that is the way of the future. We cannot keep sustaining this planet with fuels that come from oil and coal and such. We should have been on this path for the past 40 years, but after Carter, Reagan threw it all out the window in favor of big oil, going so far as to take the solar panels off the White House. Just think where we would be now if we had continued on the path with solar and wind, et al. We would probably be completely free of our addiction to foreign oil. We would be much more self sufficient as a country, and as a people. I just think the people weren't ready for it because they didn't know enough about it. Then we had too many years of Reaganomics and Bush badmouthing green technology. Now, people are more savvy about this stuff. Younger generations KNOW we have to change our ways. I have been learning about alternative energy since the 70s when I worked at the Science Museum. It is no longer a dream. The future is here. Now.

[lookout123]

OK. good luck with that. You might notice not a lot of serious investment money is chasing green...anything.

[Pico and ME]

Lookout, do you think there will be any major trend shifts when the dust settles? Say in the next 5 years or so. (Generally speaking since you cant be specific. ) How do guys in finance go about forecasting in times like these?

[sugarpop]

Originally Posted by lookout123

OK. good luck with that. You might notice not a lot of serious investment money is chasing green...anything.

Well, considering where we are now, I wouldn't really be bragging about how smart financial wizards are.

[ZenGum]

Thanks for the thoughts, Lookout, your 4th question is exactly what I am trying to find. I appreciate your professional caution.

[lookout123]

Well, considering where we are now, I wouldn't really be bragging about how smart financial wizards are.

Why? You don't believe some people are making money in this environment? Do you believe noone expected this downturn and put their money on the sidelines until things were more attractive?

[sugarpop]

Of course not, but respectfully, "financial wizards" caused this wreckage. And where were the people who saw it coming? Why didn't they warn us? Why didn't they do anything to stop it? Was it simply because they wanted to make more money?

[lookout123]

More than a few people did warn people about this. People did see it coming. Those people will continue to 1) preserve assets, and 2) grow assets in any market environment because they don't get caught up with the crowd. The reason they didn't stop it is because it can't be stopped. People are greedy. People are stupid. People are sheep. Individuals who are quite intelligent become sheep when put into groups - welcome to human nature. That is why fortunes are made and lost in every economic cycle.

You may not have seen it coming or you may have ignored the warnings of those who saw it on the horizon, but that doesn't mean everyone was caught by surprise.