Somebody knows somth'in bout birth'n hurricanes

[plthijinx]

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.....28.59 INCHES

jeez-louise! a cat 3 already and the second major hurricane in a row. cripes! it's only freakin' july!

[tw]

As with last year, been watching storms roll off Africa. Emily is just above South America at about 65 degrees W. Behind her are two more storms at about 40 W and 28 W. The second looked like it was going to be another whopper. It started to spin, then spread out (disintegrated) upon hitting the Atlantic. Meanwhile the next storm is about to roll out of Africa. It too could be Tropical Storm #6. These storms are rolling out of Africa just like they were last year. Except last year, this much 'rolling' was in August and September.

[tw]

Storms continued to roll off of Africa. But few turned into tropical storms. The problem lately has been upper atmosphere winds that were (in simple terms) ripping the tops off of potential hurricanes. Meanwhile, a few did form only to turn northward before approaching the US. Latest (the first week in August) is Harvey. Currently located about 65 degree W (due south of Nova Scotia), Harvey can be see in this satellite photo. Notice potential hurricane producing storms continue to flow off of Africa:

[tw]

Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, and Nate are names you will become familiar with. As Harvey continues moving off to the NW - maybe going after the Brits - a new tropical depression has already formed before even getting half way across the Atlantic. Currently around 30-35 degree W, this storm is on a slightly more southern track that should bring it closer to the US mainland next week. Have you made your plans yet for August 13?

[tw]

Its now called Irene. But FL residents can take a breather. It too is headed north following the path of Tropical Storm Harvey - and maybe threaten Bermuda.

[glatt]

Looks like Irene is aimed right for the Cellar. It's still a tropical storm, but is expected to be upgraded to a hurricane before it hits Philadelphia on Thursday morning.



Edit: This image is hosted by NOAA, and is updated regularly. It seems to be turning more toward NYC now.

[wolf]

How are you going to make french toast out of that?

[plthijinx]

this'll help..... National Hurricane Center

[OnyxCougar]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...ON
TROPICAL STORM NATE... LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...AND A NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CENTER
NEAR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

Try this link, let me know if it works.....
http://www.weathertap.com/satellite/SATATLIR4ANI.html

There is also a storm right off the coast of florida...forecasters say it's unlikely, but it MAY become a depression/storm once it leaves the west coast of florida and then turn north....there is also another storm in the gulf of mexico that appears from animated images from weathertap.com to be coalescing (sp) a little too much for my liking.

Possibility of two more storms slamming the gulf coast, in the midst of chaos. Feels like Dennis/Floyd.

[tw]

Been watching the current tropical storms for weeks. Currently we are up to Nate. In the attached picture, Nate sits between Puerto Rico and Nova Scotia. The larger hurricane is maybe 500 miles to the NE. Notice I have also included other storms in the lower right corner. Is this a hurricane?

Katrina was a nothing the entire time it crossed the Atlantic. It only formed when it hit the Gulf Stream off of FL, made a left turn, and got into the Gulf of Mexico.

This is the problem. Surface temperatures in the Gulf have been at record levels - consistent with global warming - 85 plus degrees F. And since the temperatures are slowly getting warmer deeper every year, then hurricanes that get into the Gulf have been getting quite strong. This is not enough to prove global warming is causing more severe hurricanes. But it is why research is ongoing to better understand the process.

Andrew was a small storm that suddenly turned into a monster just as it hit the Gulf Stream. It is believed that Andrew yanked up a large warm pocket of water that suddenly charged it into a category 5 storm. It is also suspected that Katrina got same in the Gulf. Unfortuntely, last I read, we don't have data on such temperatures. Even the data buoys only monitor surface temperatures. There is much research to do in order to explain why Katrina, et al are occuring.

[tw]

Whoops! While I was not looking, that little storm off the FL coast (located where Katrina got her upbringing) has suddently turned into the 16th Tropical Depression of the season. Three of them are out there in the Atlantic. The remaining names are Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. It is possible we use them all.

[OnyxCougar]

I was just about to post that, Tee...the storm off the eastern coast of Florida is now TD16, and will be Ophelia if she strengthens that much.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html (NOAA IOD)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm (NOAA Hurricane Outlook)

The 4th and 5th pictures down illustrate why we're having more hurricanes (warmer than average surface temps and lower than average wind shear = more hurricanes. But they can't tell us WHY the temps are warmer or WHY the wind shear is lower.

Nevermind that pesky Kyoto treaty.....

[tw]

Originally Posted by OnyxCougar

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm (NOAA Hurricane Outlook)

The irony of the fourth and fifth pictures in that URL - Katrina neither formed nor passed through that black box called the "hurricane development region". What has made hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico so severe is abnormal warning throughout in the northern Gulf. The URL (dated 2 Aug 2005) does not even note that area as having unusually high water temperatures.

[OnyxCougar]

Actually, yes it does, the fourth picture is http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...08-02-2005.jpg, and that is the slide for high surface water temps.

??? Unless I misunderstood your post, Tee?

[tw]

Originally Posted by OnyxCougar

Actually, yes it does, the fourth picture is http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...08-02-2005.jpg, and that is the slide for high surface water temps.

??? Unless I misunderstood your post, Tee?

Draw a horizontal line between the southern tips of FL and TX. These past few years, the Gulf of Mexico above that line (along the US Gulf coast) were reported unusually warmer and warmer earlier in the season. At least that is what I was getting from summaries. This fourth picture does not suggest that. I don't know if this fourth picture is only for short term temperatures or for seasonal temperatures. But Katrina got most of its energy from the region above that horizontal line; an area that the fourth picture says is not above normal.

I cannot provide details since some usual sources such as the US Navy Surface Temperature maps long longer are available. Ironically many sources apparently were served out of New Orleans.

Shearing and other effects (some of which are somehow related to El Nino) can make or break hurricanes. These effects tend to cycle. But one effect that is not cycling - is only getting warming - is ocean temperature. That would mean more severe hurricanes that tend to cycle with wind shear and El Nino as they get worse over the decades. Currently the relationship between global warming (ocean warming) and more severe hurricanes is only apparent; has not been definitely proven.

But again, the irony is that Katrina got its energy in locations not listed as warmer (red) on that chart. Katrina never exited in the black box described as "the hurrican development region". OK, maybe Katrina was not really the big one (gasp). Maybe we are still waiting for the really big one from that "hurricane development region" and those red (warmer) regions.