North Korea warns of war

[classicman]

North Korea announced Tuesday a freeze in relations with South Korea and threatened military retaliation in response to alleged intrusions into its waters by the South Korean navy.

North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said it would "abrogate the agreement on non-aggression" amid heightened tensions on the divided peninsular over the sinking of a South Korean warship earlier this year.

An official South Korean report accused the Communist North of firing a torpedo at the ship, killing 46 sailors.

A North Korean military official accused the South of intruding into North Korean waters in the Yellow Sea from May 14 to 24, the Yonhap news agency reported.

"This is a deliberate provocation aimed to spark off another military conflict in the West Sea of Korea and thus push to a war phase the present north-south relations," the official said in a statement, according to Yonhap.

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This may all be posturing, but it is certainly headed in the wrong direction.

[Ibby]

The biggest problem with the North Korea situation is that the North can literally level the entire city of Seoul within 20-30 minutes. They have THAT MUCH artillery pointed at it - and that ISN'T counting the missiles. If Kim decides he's in danger, or wants to start a war (with the Sultanistic government structure, it's really ALL about what Kim says), Seoul is just GONE. North Korea would get it's ass kicked - China wouldn't come to their support, I think, if they could absolutely say Kim started it. China would definitely try to retain its political power on the peninsula, but would be unlikely to send combat troops to fight the U.S. and South Korea if Kim were to unilaterally attack. So basically what it comes down to is, if Kim is REALLY trying to start something here, we can't make the first military move, or China will get involved - but if China can be persuaded or convinced to withdraw its support of the North, in exchange for continued political power in the area, Kim would really be out of luck - at the cost of, basically, the entire population of Seoul.

[classicman]

... and the US could wipe the entire country off the map in seconds.

[Ibby]

Originally Posted by classicman

... and the US could wipe the entire country off the map in seconds.

Without China retaliating? No. That is exactly how NOT to avoid WWIII over this.

[classicman]

There will be retaliation no matter what. I really don't think that is avoidable.

[Spexxvet]

I think you'd change your mind if your Momma was living there.

[classicman]

Sorry spexxie it wouldn't change my mind one iota.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by tw

But there is a larger question being asked. Who ordered the attack? Very good reasons to believe a power struggle is ongoing in N Korea. The extremists may be exercising power. Or the attack could have been a fringe element of the NK military doing it on their own.

Yes, I've heard that theory as well. From what I know, the two more probable theories are NK retaliating against SK for an event last year when SK ships attacked a NK vessel for crossing into SK waters. NK denies they crossed but I doubt anyone outside of NK believe them.

The second theory I've heard is that a rouge group of soldiers decided to escalate the conflict and attacked SK on their own. Kim obviously could not allow people to think he doesn't have complete control so he would never admit it.

Unfortunately, we have very little intelligence about NK so we probably will not know for some time, if ever.

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

Apparently divers found bits of the torpedo at the wreck site.

Every site I've read states that there is almost no doubt that NK torpedoed the SK ship. I think there were investigators from Canada, Sweden (a neutral country), and some other place and they all said NK did it.

Originally Posted by Ibram

Without China retaliating? No. That is exactly how NOT to avoid WWIII over this.

I know China supports NK because they have interests in the region but do you really think they will escalate to that level over NK? If I remember correctly, you live in China (?), so you probably have better insight with this issue but I don't think China's interests in NK are worth what they lose over a world war, even a proxy war.

[Ibby]

A nuclear or massive-scale-conventional assault on North Korea would definitely spark Chinese retaliation, to save face if nothing else. China would feel the need to ensure its interests on the peninsula are kept safe - any solution to the North Korea problem would require Chinese support.

Think of it as, North Korea is China's unruly little brother. China wouldn't necessarily mind someone helping them take care of the rowdy little bugger, as long as they didn't, you know, pound him into oblivion. Kim is embarrassing the Chinese government by throwing his tantrums, but they don't just want him - or, rather, their influence over the region - to just disappear.

China is the biggest player in the region, and ANY solution to the NK problem would need their full support, and to ensure their influence and interests are upheld.

ETA: also, would the U.S.'s interests in Japan or Taiwan or Canada be worth the cost of a war to defend them? Probably not, logically speaking, but treaties and a sense of duty to our friends mean that we would do so anyway. Likewise, China would come to North Korea's aid if they were not reassured that their interests would be looked out for.

ETA 2: Besides, if you were China and detected an ICBM launch towards you, you'd probably shoot first and ask questions later, too.

[Spexxvet]

Originally Posted by classicman

Sorry spexxie it wouldn't change my mind one iota.

You heartless bastard! I'm telling your mom what you said.

Seriously, you'd really sacrifice your own mother just to start a war with NK?

[tw]

Originally Posted by Ibram

China is the biggest player in the region, and ANY solution to the NK problem would need their full support, and to ensure their influence and interests are upheld.

Which explains why Hilary Clinton is apparently doing shuttle diplomacy. And it is making the Chinese leadership suddenly take note.

BBC News reports a rather interesting observation. China is completely confused by this entire issue. Not that it has attracted so much attention - far more than China apparently expected. China apparently cannot figure out why N Korea did this.

It sounds so much like what happened during the silly Spy Plane incident. Chinese leadership was the last to learn what had happened. Was completely blindsided by the turmoil and rumblings of war. But this is a different Chinese leadership. According to the BBC, Chinese are stalling for time until they can figure out what this is all about.

This is part of a long process of China coming to grips with its responsibilities to the world. Normally China would avoid the entire issue because they see no profit in it. But the issue has been forced upon them. More reasons for their confusion.

[jinx]

They better get used to it.
"How dare China police the world!!" "Why isn't China policing the world?!?" "How could they let this happen?" "When are they gonna fix it?!"

Suckers.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Spexxvet

Seriously, you'd really sacrifice your own mother just to start a war with NK?

No, but we would easily sacrifice yours....