San Diego fires

[xoxoxoBruce]

Glad you're OK, man.
I guess this will impact the SoCal housing market, big time.

[steambender]

2+ years to get rebuilt for the people with money, good insurance and assertive management personalities. Not that many custom builders to do rebuilds, and new development builders business model doesn't handle demo, rebuilds very well, so there is a long waiting list.

The people who live out in areas like Ramona (not the developments , but in the country, hills and canyons) frequently like the isolated lifestyle, and some don't have the money or coping skills to rebuild what they've spent 20+ years evolving as a home. some of them still haven't gotten rebuilt in 4 years, and just got sent back to start over.

and the market should get a slight bump, too. but, people will also move out because of this.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Progress towards containment is being made on most if not all fires up at the more northerly end of things, where most of the evacuations... weren't. The greatest number of evacuations is still down in San Diego County.

1800 houses destroyed overall, and five deaths.

In Oxnard, we did have one little smudge-fire located right by a highway on-ramp -- Rose Avenue onto the 101 -- that was immediately squashed by the local FD. That probably was some dildoid flicking a butt out the car window. They apparently didn't have the advantage of being brought up by a forest ranger...

[steambender]

A month ago my brother visited from back east. We drove the 45 minutes out through Ramona and witch creek to Julian for lunch and apple pie, the town specialty. Our trip was cut short by a wildfire on the backside of town, and we were passed by a steady stream of CalFire trucks heading up to town as we went back downhill home to Scripps Ranch. I took the opportunity to show him how absolutely arid the vegetation was and the extreme fire risk. He got to walk on a beach and see a wildfire in the same day.

Anyone with any sensitivity to their local surroundings would see the hazard. They think, or so they've said, that the wind downed power lines for the witch fire, and that an exploding transformer started at least one of the secondary fires. Too many others to be spontaneous.

Four years ago I rode my bike through the area 1-2 miles away where 350 houses were burned. They wouldn't let people in for quite a while, there was some looting, but I got in earlier on a bike than they would have let a car in. It looked like the California version of Germany and London after the firebombings, even down to being mostly black and gray. Blue sky and sunny, being southern California.

[tw]

Originally Posted by steambender

Four years ago I rode my bike through the area 1-2 miles away where 350 houses were burned. ... but I got in earlier on a bike than they would have let a car in.

As a first one in such locations and being on a bike, what precautions were necessary? Do the streets remain clear? Are there numerous obstructions to be removed? Are flat tires a serious risk? Anything apparent as a threat to you - wildlife or inorganic?

[Cloud]

I wonder at the contrast between this disaster, and the Katrina hurricane. Similar stadiums as refuges; one a horror story of backing up toilets, no facilities, etc., the other described as a "county fair" with an overabundance of volunteers, and massages provided to evacuees.

Is it just a smaller disaster? Was New Orleans just a poorer place with fewer facilities? Has FEMA really learned its lessons?

As an aside, I'm always flabbergasted by the number of people who don't have disaster plans or supplies on hand. In California, surely, where people deal with earthquakes all the time, shouldn't most of these people have emergency supplies on hand? I guess it's just one of those things that people know they should do, but somehow never get around to it. Like me!

[ZenGum]

Originally Posted by Cloud

As an aside, I'm always flabbergasted by the number of people who don't have disaster plans or supplies on hand. In California, surely, where people deal with earthquakes all the time, shouldn't most of these people have emergency supplies on hand? I guess it's just one of those things that people know they should do, but somehow never get around to it. Like me!

Japan is the most earthquake prone country in on Earth (according to some) and gets regular tsunamis, typhoons, flood, volcanoes, blizzards (in the north and mountains) ... about the only thing it doesn't get are huge fires and droughts, although droughts are starting to happen.
The government urges everyone to have 3 days worth of water, food and other supplies per person in disaster packs ready to go ... yet barely 15 or 20 % of the people I have spoken to have them. Usually it is older people too. I guess they've seen it before. It's hard to convince people by telling them.
And even those with packs often seem to forget toilet paper. Du-u-uh!

I too have noted the difference between this and Katrina, and I'm wondering why. Got no answer though.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

I too have noted the difference between this and Katrina, and I'm wondering why. Got no answer though.

I think the main difference is that a hurricane wipes out all the power in the region and causes widespread destruction everywhere in the area. These fires are widespread, but they don't cause the same overwhelming destruction everywhere. Some places burn, some don't. The systems (electricity, plumbing, etc.) still work, for the most part, even though so many individual buildings were lost.

Also, in Katrina, everybody had to evacuate. In San Diego, only some people did. Those who didn't are able to help the victims.

[steambender]

For the most part, the areas evacuated were not inner city, dense urban populations. Plus, San diego has a highly developed sense of volunteerism and service - 100 thousand active duty personnel, 300 thousand retired military. People are offering to pick up and do laundry for the stadium refugees!

We went through this 4 years ago, and everybody learned lessons from it. there are still people who had no clue, but most people effected in Ranch Bernardo (worst hit) were white collar, and the houses than burned average probably $750k. Their coping skills are reasonable. And the denser parts of the city and hotels were open to absorb the evacuees. remember that at peak only about 15,000 peple went to qualcomm. All the others (the balance of the 500,000+ potential evacuees) got absorbed by the community. the number of homes lost will be less than 5000, so the destruction is much less that Katerina, and the infrastucture is still in place.

San diego has had some high profile city management issues, financial mismanagement, and rubber stamping developers plans, that type of thing. But therre is still a sense of amatuerism to the city politics compared to say, Chicago. almost innocence, and it comes out in the community spirit in a big way at times like this.

"High Fire Danger" is a season here and the level of awareness is very high. It's always a question of when and where, not if.

There's also the difference between having emergency supplies in your house, and what you can pack in your car and take with you on less than an hours notice. Ranch Bernardo got evacuated at 4:00 AM on short notice, the fires moved the 20 miles overnight.

kids, pets, important papers, computers, overnight clothes...gee we're out of room, can't take our years' survivalist supplies.

[Cloud]

Good points Steambender.

Tho the emergency preparedness info I've come across says to have BOTH 1) bulk supplies of food, water, etc.; and a backpack or other "quick-grab" thing with essentials in it.

I keep meaning to do this . . . fortunately, very few natural disasters in my area. Still, could be a plague or something . . .

[steambender]

the topic of grab and go energency supplies gets talked about a lot.

Do a quick experiment-

1. back a car out of garage so you have some clear floor space.

2. start a pile of everything you and the people (& pets)you are responsible for would need for 24 hours of survival

at least one gallon of water per person
shelter in which to sleep
clothing for 95+ days and 50 degree nights
blankets or sleeping bags
sun shade for the day
personal hygiene supplies (we were peeing behind the grocery store)
food
a source of power for cell phones and radios
anything you need to prepare, cook & consume the food
transportation for all of the above
fuel for the transportation - we watched many people pull up to opur local gas station after it closed - they were SOL.
trashbags

non essentials to survival:
activites for the kids and any restless adults, you do nothing but wait and worry once you have a place to be.
important identity and property ownership papers.
computers
irreplaceable photos, etc.


Now how big is that pile, how long did it take you to collect it, does it fit into your transportation?

multiply it by more than one day.

Have you ever practiced using it? (gone camping) or does your version of camping involve curling irons and room service?

so, how easy is it to not look prepared, and who among us is ready RIGHT NOW?

[Cicero]

Hmmm. Good Question. Glatt's right about the power.

I think the difference is, being able to drive to safety, and resources. And if you don't like that....you can drive somewhere else.

Here are some marked differences:

One massive group is trapped inside of a burning hot, and putrid watery hell with no means to get out for weeks on end.


The other:

Tiny small groups are free to leave a hot burning hell with their house in the rearview of their hummer to go eat and rest at Grandma's for a few days clutching their insurance policys.


I can give you a more detailed list but I'm already tired of my own opinion on this one.

[HungLikeJesus]

Steambender,
That's a good point. But 90% of what you'll need for 3 days, you'll need for one day.

[Undertoad]

Now you have to worry about changing out the batteries every once in a while, making sure the water is still potable, putting in fresh twinkies every other year, getting fresh stable fuel every quarter, organizing your whole home so the passports and pictures are in a case with a handle, etc. etc. This is just too much fuckin work for a guy who can't manage regular vacuuming or cashing of donation checks.

[steambender]

UT
you are so right...life is too hectic for all of the just in case planning.

and the memories and urgency fade with time even after you've had to do it.

it's an attitude, and a little planning and preparation. we'll do better next time, and we don't or won't prepack any perishables, just use what's around the house at the time.

It just irks me to hear people say "why weren't they more ready?" Who is so organized and in control of their normal life much less contingency planning...

glad things are getting back to mormal.