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#1 |
Radical Centrist
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cottage of Prussia
Posts: 31,423
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(part 2)
If you look at the regular season record against the spread you notice that it's incredibly close. Almost all teams are .500 against the spread or one game off it. Since you must win 55% of the time to make money, this is a terrible atmosphere for betting. So what is special about the teams higher or lower than .500 against the spread. The teams you would have won money betting on this year are the Packers, Bengals, 49ers. One expected to win, one expected to lose, and one average. The teams you would have lost betting for are the Rams, Colts, Chargers. One expected to lose and two average. What you notice above all else is that teams with a good record do well against the spread and teams with a poor record do poorly against the spread. This is exactly in line with expectations. We should think that the "expectations" wagers are now taken into account and people are betting underdogs against teams known to be good. |
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#2 |
Free
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,513
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Its a pretty simple thing UT, there are two possibilities in a Football game in regards to the bet.
There are a lot of games starting with 85%-95% lopsided bets. When this is the case, they take the money, especially in the play-offs, and in Thursday or Sunday night games. You may continue to believe that the lop-sided bets are lost due coincidence or not, it makes no difference to me. If you followed the money as I do, you would find that it is too common that the 5%-15% wins to be a coincidence. The house wins, fix or no fix. What the media sells, never wins. The masses buy, the masses lose. Those are the facts. Your details are unnecessary.
__________________
pls stfu k thx |
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