Obama: "I'm ready to negotiate with you, Iran." Iran: "Fuck you."

Originally Posted by Zhuge Liang

Ahem. Moving the topic back to the OP...watch the Iranian elections. If Ali Khamenei throws his weight behind Mohammad Khatami's or Mehdi Karroubi's challenge to Ahmadinejad's Presidency, things could get interesting. It could be that they intend to use the nuclear issue to hang him in the elections, let him be the face of the rejectionist camp and take the fall for it at a time when many states are willing to consider rapprochment with the US, North Korea nonwithstanding.

It seems the main worry among Iran's diplomatic corps is that Obama's change in tack is purely tactical and done to shore up world opinion - in other words to get them into talks, make unreasonable demands that Iran could never accept, have the talks collapse and let world opinion hang them. I don't think that is his intention here, but international politics is not a game where loser's get off easy.

For his part, Obama is almost certainly aware of the poisonous levels of infighting among the Iranian leadership, and wishes to proceed cautiously, for fear of insulting one or favouring another to the degree it sets the factions off into another round of infighting. In a country where there is no single, unified command of the armed forces, that is usually a bad idea.

Isn't diplomacy fun?

I think Obama might proceed on multiple diplomatic tracks to subtlety pressure Iran.

Working with the Russians by showing a willingness to abandon Bush's plan for US missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republican in return for more Russian pressure and/or stiffer economic sanctions on Iran.

Opening discussion with Syria to persuade them, perhaps with incentives, that it is not in their interest to be a Iranian puppet state.

And working quietly and behind the scenes through these renewed external relations with the more "moderate" elements in the Iranian government.

Diplomacy can be fun and productive if applied more effectively than the bullying approach of the last eight years.