A speck of optimism

[Undertoad]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1530762.ece

Optimism:

MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.


The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week.

Things still suck, but are better now than under Saddam:

One in four Iraqis has had a family member murdered, says the poll by Opinion Research Business. In Baghdad, the capital, one in four has had a relative kidnapped and one in three said members of their family had fled abroad. But when asked whether they preferred life under Saddam, the dictator who was executed last December, or under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, most replied that things were better for them today.

We forgot to tell the Iraqis they are in civil war:

Only 27% think there is a civil war in Iraq, compared with 61% who do not, according to the survey carried out last month.

Surge will succeed, and then things will improve once foreign troops go:

By a majority of two to one, Iraqis believe military operations now under way will disarm all militias. More than half say security will improve after a withdrawal of multinational forces.

Surge is succeeding, and in the complicated picture, the media only reports the bad stuff and so we are amazed by this poll:

Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, said the findings pointed to progress. “There is no widespread violence in the four southern provinces and the fact that the picture is more complex than the stereotype usually portrayed is reflected in today’s poll,” she said.

[Undertoad]

Wretchard's take, the poll doesn't represent reality, but what Iraqis want and expect it to be:

It is interesting to speculate on where the Coalition presence fits into the picture. The coalition is obviously necessary to "disarm all militias", but its eventual departure is also desired. This squares with what I've frequently heard in round-table blogger discussions with officers in Iraq that nearly every Iraqi wants the US to leave, but very few of them want America to leave immediately.

What the poll amounts to is a snapshot of what the Iraqi public thinks the trajectory should be. It implies that they desire a post-Saddam world free of certain influences which they are now struggling against; that the US has a role in helping them reach that state after which they devoutly wish it would leave. But as to what the future state is the poll gives precious little indication. All we can surmise that it is a fundamentally national state without militias, but the poll as reported lets us see no further. And neither perhaps can anyone else.

[xoxoxoBruce]

I'm curious who took that pole and how. Iraqis? Foreigners? Door to door?
You have to admit it's a daunting task for outsiders.

[Hippikos]

The regrets of the man who brought down Saddam


Audrey Gillan
Monday March 19, 2007
The Guardian

His hands were bleeding and his eyes filled with tears as, four years ago, he slammed a sledgehammer into the tiled plinth that held a 20ft bronze statue of Saddam Hussein. Then Kadhim al-Jubouri spoke of his joy at being the leader of the crowd that toppled the statue in Baghdad's Firdous Square. Now, he is filled with nothing but regret.

The moment became symbolic across the world as it signalled the fall of the dictator. Wearing a black vest, Mr al-Jubouri, an Iraqi weightlifting champion, pounded through the concrete in an attempt to smash the statue and all it meant to him. Now, on the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, he says: "I really regret bringing down the statue. The Americans are worse than the dictatorship. Every day is worse than the previous day."

The weightlifter had also been a mechanic and had felt the full weight of Saddam's regime when he was sent to Abu Ghraib prison by the Iraqi leader's son, Uday, after complaining that he had not been paid for fixing his motorcycle.

He explained: "There were lots of people from my tribe who were also put in prison or hanged. It became my dream ever since I saw them building that statue to one day topple it."

Yet he now says he would prefer to be living under Saddam than under US occupation. He said: "The devil you know [is] better than the devil you don't. We no longer know friend from foe. The situation is becoming more dangerous. It's not getting better at all. People are poor and the prices are going higher and higher."

Saddam, he says, "was like Stalin. But the occupation is proving to be worse".

According to an opinion poll of 5,000 Iraqis carried out over the past month, 49% say they are better off now than under Saddam, and 26% say life was better under Saddam. More than one in four said they had had a close relative murdered in the past three years.

· Regrets of the Statue Man, the first of three films by Guardian Films to mark the fourth anniversary of the invasion, will be broadcast on ITV news at 6.30pm and 10.30pm tonight

[Undertoad]

Poll taken by Opinion Research Business

More than one in four said they had had a close relative murdered in the past three years.

The Graudian added the word "close". It doesn't appear in the poll or in any other story about the poll.

Iraqi families are extended families, not the nuclear families we are familiar with.

[Hippikos]

I think it's way to early to speak about optimism. Sooner or later US/UK troops will leave Iraq, probably until the end of 2008. Nobody knows what will happen then, one can only pray for the Iraqi's.

From Hope to Despair in Baghdad

[xoxoxoBruce]

We can't know, but I'd speculate than under Saddam the relentless repression gave little reason things would ever be better.
Even with the current chaos, at least there's hope, now.

[Griff]

I hope the Iraqis can turn things around. I also hope a positive outcome doesn't green light an attack on Iran.

[Hippikos]

That hope dwindles with the years that the chaos continues. As the man said, with Saddam you know where you were at. Now, nobody knows. Hope, based on what? If you don't know what is going to happen, than what to hope for? Easy to say from our ez-chair.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Griff

I also hope a positive outcome doesn't green light an attack on Iran.

Hopefully we can avoid that in '08.

[Perry Winkle]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Doesn't anyone do anything for themselves anymore?

Always hiring out the dirty work...what's the world come to?

[Undertoad]

A speck of optimism. Mohammad Fadhil in Baghdad:

No doubt people who follow the news as it is being reported in the West get the impression that we’re fighting a lost war, and I feel that there won’t be a day when our struggle to live a normal life and what we achieve in this path will make headlines that run above those of death.

You look around in Baghdad now and see hundreds of men working in the streets to pick up garbage; to plant flowers and paint the blast walls in joyful colors. Many of Baghdad’s squares are becoming green and clean. The picture isn’t perfect, but it’s a clear attempt to beat violence and ease pain through giving the spring a chance to shine.

Nights in Baghdad now are far from quiet, but the sounds cause less anxiety for me than they did before. I recognize the rumble of armor and thump of guns and they assure me that the gangs and militias do not dominate the night as they once did.

When Arabs or westerners ask me about the situation and I answer that hope remains and that we’re looking forward to a better future most would say ‘Are you living in this world?’ I answer, ‘Yes, it’s you who live in the parallel world the media built for you with images of only death and destruction’.

If it surprised some of them that a poll found Iraqis optimistic, then I’m surprised that someone finally bothered to ask Iraqis how they feel.

Just as free birds would never return to the cage, we don’t want to return to the days of the tyrant. Birds do not care that beasts roam outside and would not feel nostalgic for a home or meal mixed with humiliation.

All that a free bird cares about is to spread wings and fly as it pleases.

http://pajamasmedia.com/2007/03/bagh...kpoint_and.php

[glatt]

Keep 'em coming. The news out of Iraq is so overwhelmingly negative, it's nice to hear at least one person there with a different point of view.

[TheMercenary]

Baghdad security crackdown seriously curbs killings of US soldiers

MIL-IRAQ-US SOLDIERS
Baghdad security crackdown seriously curbs killings of US soldiers

BAGHDAD, March 14 (KUNA) -- The rate of killings of US troops in Iraq has been on the decline, down by 60 percent, since the launch of the new security measures in Baghdad, according to statistics revealed by the Multi-National Force -Iraq Combined Press Information Centre.

Only 17 members of the US military in Iraq have been killed since February 14 till March 13, compared to 42 from January 13 to February 13; the rate was on the decline during the first month of the security crackdown, compared to a month before.

Two of the 17 soldiers died at US Baghdad camps of non-combat causes.

The remarkable decrease in killings among the US troops came at a time when more of these troops were deployed in the Iraqi capital, especially in districts previously regarded as extremely hazardous for them such as Al-Sadr City, Al-Azamiyah, and Al-Doura.

Meanwhile, US attacks on insurgent strongholds north of Baghdad curbed attacks against helicopters. Before the new security plan, many such craft were downed leaving 20 soldiers dead.

The US army in Iraq had earlier said that sectarian fighting and violence in Baghdad had dropped sharply, by about 80 percent, since the launch of the plan.

The statistics excluded US troops killed in other governorates such as Al-Anbar, Diyala, and Salahiddin.

As to the latest human losses, the US army announced Wednesday that two American soldiers had been killed, one in southern Baghdad and the other northeast of the capital.(end) ahh.

msa
KUNA 141130 Mar 07NNNN

[tw]

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

The rate of killings of US troops in Iraq has been on the decline, down by ...

Which was also reported after Tet. Meanwhile that is exactly how insurgencies work. Need we return to Fajullah? The insurgency simply moved to other towns - leaving only enough in Fajullah to interest the Marines.

But then that is also what MacAurthur over 50 years ago and Sze Tze over 2500 years ago both noted. That is how Americans fought the Revolutionary War. Once we learn how smart commanders operate, well, those numbers only imply the insurgents are smart - or getting smarter. Welcome to Vietnam when these same 'body count' numbers proved America was winning the war.