Are political polls ever right?

Undertoad · 12-30-2002, 12:08 AM

A little 15-minute study of whether polls have any connection to reality.

I took this page which lists the "last-minute" polls taken just before election day. I decided to limit it to the senate races.

The polls were exactly right 3 times, within their published margin of error 7 times, and "wrong" - outside their margin of error - 10 times.

No wonder the elections were such a surprise.

The biggest offender was Zogby, which got it wrong 7 out of 9 times.

South Dakota
Zogby GOP 5%
USA/CNN/Gallup GOP 3%
Actual DEM 1%
Zogby wrong, U/C/G at outskirts of margin of error

Minnesota
Zogby DEM 6%
Actual GOP 3%
Zogby wrong

Missouri
Zogby GOP 8%
U/C/G GOP 4%
Actual GOP 1%
Zogby wrong, U/C/G within margin of error

Colorado
Zogby DEM 5%
U/C/G GOP 2%
Actual GOP 5%
Zogby wrong, U/C/G within margin of error

New Hampshire
American Research Grp GOP 4%
Univ of NH GOP 1%
Actual GOP 4%
ARG exactly right, UoNH within margin of error

Arkansas
Zogby DEM 13%
USA Today/Gallup DEM 8%
Actual DEM 8%
Zogby wrong, U/G exactly right

New Jersey
Zogby DEM 13%
Quinnipiac DEM 11%
Actual DEM 10%
Zogby and Quinnipac within margin of error

Texas
Zogby GOP 4%
Actual GOP 12%
Zogby wrong

Georgia
Zogby DEM 2%
Actual GOP 7%
Zogby wrong

N Carolina
Zogby GOP 10%
Actual GOP 9%
Zogby right

Iowa
Survey USA DEM 22%
Des Moines Register DEM 9%
Actual DEM 10%
Survey USA wrong, Des Moines Register within marg of error

South Carolina
Mason Dixon GOP 17%
Survey USA GOP 1%
Actual GOP 10%
Both Mason Dixon and Survey USA wrong... in different directions.

Tennessee
Survey USA GOP 11%
Mason Dixon GOP 10%
Actual GOP 10%
Mason Dixon exactly right, Survey USA within marg of err

12-30-2002, 12:08 AM	#1
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	Are political polls ever right? A little 15-minute study of whether polls have any connection to reality. I took this page which lists the "last-minute" polls taken just before election day. I decided to limit it to the senate races. The polls were exactly right 3 times, within their published margin of error 7 times, and "wrong" - outside their margin of error - 10 times. No wonder the elections were such a surprise. The biggest offender was Zogby, which got it wrong 7 out of 9 times. South Dakota Zogby GOP 5% USA/CNN/Gallup GOP 3% Actual DEM 1% Zogby wrong, U/C/G at outskirts of margin of error Minnesota Zogby DEM 6% Actual GOP 3% Zogby wrong Missouri Zogby GOP 8% U/C/G GOP 4% Actual GOP 1% Zogby wrong, U/C/G within margin of error Colorado Zogby DEM 5% U/C/G GOP 2% Actual GOP 5% Zogby wrong, U/C/G within margin of error New Hampshire American Research Grp GOP 4% Univ of NH GOP 1% Actual GOP 4% ARG exactly right, UoNH within margin of error Arkansas Zogby DEM 13% USA Today/Gallup DEM 8% Actual DEM 8% Zogby wrong, U/G exactly right New Jersey Zogby DEM 13% Quinnipiac DEM 11% Actual DEM 10% Zogby and Quinnipac within margin of error Texas Zogby GOP 4% Actual GOP 12% Zogby wrong Georgia Zogby DEM 2% Actual GOP 7% Zogby wrong N Carolina Zogby GOP 10% Actual GOP 9% Zogby right Iowa Survey USA DEM 22% Des Moines Register DEM 9% Actual DEM 10% Survey USA wrong, Des Moines Register within marg of error South Carolina Mason Dixon GOP 17% Survey USA GOP 1% Actual GOP 10% Both Mason Dixon and Survey USA wrong... in different directions. Tennessee Survey USA GOP 11% Mason Dixon GOP 10% Actual GOP 10% Mason Dixon exactly right, Survey USA within marg of err

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