Predictions for 2002

[Undertoad]

I'm recycling a K5 post here, but I think it will go over better here than it will there. Post your own predictions!

<b>Entertainment</b>

The consolidation in cable system ownership will start more serious wars in licensing fees. The number of channels available for home viewers may even shrink (for the first time in how long?) as either channel operators find it hard to make enough to stay afloat OR as cable system operators drop them as the next stage in the wars.

The "next big thing" will arrive in popular music, coalescing a new youth culture - and to the amazement of previous generations, it will NOT be about rebellion, disorder, etc. but will go in the opposite direction: orderly, clean, safe, and even to be played at moderate volumes. (Something apropos for the coming-of-age of the Barney generation.)

<b>Technology</b>

Microsoft Passport will fail to capture the interest of both the public and any large enough number of vendors to create the necessary critical mass MS needs to turn it into anything near a monopoly.

Mozilla and Mozilla-based browsers will have 10% market share by the end of the year.

<b>World</b>

The US will retain the backing of its international coalition while broadening the war on terrorism to at least one more country - which probably not be Iraq. Unrest will increase in smaller countries who wonder if they're next, with leaders who don't know which way to direct the public opinion.

Castro will die or become infirm and Cuba will become a Democracy. Within 5 years it will be one of the most stunning turnarounds in the world, producing not just great economic growth but remarkable achievements in the arts.

Colin Powell will architect a major peace initiative somewhere in the world and will win the Nobel Peace Prize.

<b>Politics</b>

The Democratic party will win seats in both houses of congress.

Ashcroft will make what is interpreted as a major mistake, will basically be told to resign, and will do so.

You forgot one part.

Mozilla or Mozilla-based browsers will have 10% market share. That 10% will be pissed off about that goddamn text entry bug that dhamsaic is dealing with right now as he types this in. Argh!

[verbatim]

I think the music one pretty much hits the nail on the head. These days, esp after the WTC thing, everyone is willingly falling head over heels to be a mindless member of society. Music will head this direction too. I really dont care, as long as it is good and isnt your typical from-a-can-made-6-months-ago-bye-it-or-die Britany Spears crap.






Heres one of mine. There is a local radion station here in CentralPA that likes to push the edge and make fun of people. (Its 93.5 WTPA). I have a feeling that one radio station like this will pull a media stunt by playing *nothing* but songs that deal with crashing, burning, terrorism, death, carnage, etc..... for a weekend. And my bet is that they will NOT get investigated or questioned, but some little 10 year old kid who plays Cops and Robbers on the playground will get suspended and questioned by authorities. Thats cause gov't sucks, but at least its our gov't, something that we can be proud of.

[tw]

Originally posted by Undertoad
Castro will die or become infirm and Cuba will become a Democracy. Within 5 years it will be one of the most stunning turnarounds in the world, producing not just great economic growth but remarkable achievements in the arts.

Remove the time of death constraint, and it could be a most accurate prediction. Cuba has some of Central America's most productive and resourceful people restrained too long by a series of self-serving governments, and now with enough independent thinkers (and supportive relative in FL) as to stand up and create their own businesses (as opposed to waiting for the US, Japan, and EU building those businesses).

Least likely prediction involved Colin Powell, who is restrained by large numbers of Bush extremists in State, Defense, and the White House. Also Ashcroft will remain because he represents the mindset of most of the Bush administration including all in Sec of Defense, most of George Jr White House advisors, and even Colin Powell's own Asst Sec of State. To be so successful, Powell must o be among moderates - intelligent thinkers. Currently, he works with too many who make decisions based first on political bias.

Striking is how active Tony Blair is in world affairs, and how detached the current US Administration is to most all world affairs. Tony Blair is the most likely current world leader to be nominated for a Nobel Prize.

Music will not change signficantly. Not since the first half of the 1900s have teens and adults shared so common an interest in the same music. Division of music tastes began with the Beatles and remained for decades. Remember: the Beatles, Rolling Stones, MoTown, Mamas and Papas, Tina Turner, etc - none of the biggest selling records ever won a Grammy - or were even nominated. In the 70s, it was only 1950s music artists who won Grammy awards because literally - anyone over thirty back then could not be trusted. Today, there is very little such disagreement in music tastes.

The recession will continue in 2002. There is no reason to believe that a problem so hindering this nation's productive 7% will be circumvented. That problem is centered on lack of net access and all the associated technology that will be stifled as a result. Add to that a serious transportation industry crisis, and other big industry inflexibility (ie. USX and Bethlehem Steel), a George Jr need to rescue badly managed companies that must be bankrupt (see increased tarriffs masking as punitive fines and retaliation), a sudden exposure of too many other big companies who have been living off the fat to cook the books (none though as big as Enron), another major downsizing or purchase of AT&T (maybe a bankruptcy of the little that remains), and a Congress that will endorse status quo - 2002 will be the year that we discover reality. It is overdue. Things have been a little too easy the past decade. Storm clouds have been collecting this past year and mostly unreported in the news.

During 2002, some major innovations will be created and yet unreported because of their insignificance to the general public - most likely in the fields of genetics and quantum physics (including optics). Again, science will attempt to address a need for a sufficiently sized quantum physics research tool, and again, another Bush will stifle a technology he cannot understand. Some sort of major problem, possibly a near disaster, will occur in the ISS program.

The one thing I fear most, is not likely, BUT we should not be surprised if it happens - we will attack Iraq. Should it happen, it will be bad for the US, and good for the anti-humanity extremist, Sharon, who will remain in power at the end of 2002.

A number of Central European nations will enter the EU this year. Ironically, Turkey will be denied consideration even though Cyprus will be considered (but rejected).

Mass race riots with signficant deaths will occur in a Pacific Island nation, but will be largely ignored in the US press.

Price of oil will remain at current unhealthy low prices causing major economic and political upheavels throughout the world - especially in the Middle East and in some non Middle East oil producers.

Another major dispute over nuclear waste will be fought - and nothing productive will result. Nuclear waster storage is a major problem in every nuclear power plant - a problem that will remain until a near miss problem (probably a radioactive fire) occurs somewhere.

[Undertoad]

Someone on K5 pointed out that it'll be hard for Mozilla to break 10% because new systems are sold with IE as the default. But I'm sticking to it: I'll go for the AOL ploy where AOL goes with Mozilla to head off proprietary MS incursions.

(Do you still get re-directed to MSN Search if you mis-type an URL while using AOL?)

[jaguar]

The "next big thing" will arrive in popular music, coalescing a new youth culture - and to the amazement of previous generations, it will NOT be about rebellion, disorder, etc. but will go in the opposite direction: orderly, clean, safe, and even to be played at moderate volumes. (Something apropos for the coming-of-age of the Barney generation.)

That was interesting...
Popular music today seems to be divided into two camps, the Poppy type shit 9britey SPears et al) and the more rough 'n' tuble ramstien, Linkin Park and Limp Bizkits of this world. BUt underneath its all carefuly homogonised shit, all so carefuly tempered to nto offend anyone its not funny. And its building something. Its liek the more PC our society gets, the more it hides its anger, its hate, pain, suffering, it all gets swpt under the carpet and it seems to be building up, like live lava under a thin crust, occasionally breaking hte surface in bloody murders, school shootings, work shootings, suicides. Look at japan, the most....clen? society in the world and its kids are going nuts. THousands of girls are leaving thier homes to live on the streets because they DOn't want that kindof safe lifestyle, they are actively rejecting it, boys are going nuts, killing parents purely to see what it was like, its a generation spinning off the track. I kind of expect more, more shootings, more bizzare nutters coming out fo the woodwork, more backlase, more chinks in your "smile the world is watching" faces.

One thing i do expect is a larger backlash to the RIAA (Rightious Idiots Associacion of America) as they start to mainstrem thigs liek copy-proected cds that don't work properly in half the players in the world.

During 2002, some major innovations will be created and yet unreported because of their insignificance to the general public

As it has been for hundreds of years =)

Mass race riots with signficant deaths will occur in a Pacific Island nation, but will be largely ignored in the US press.

Fiji?

Tony Blair is the most likely current world leader to be nominated for a Nobel Prize.

And one of the most undeserving.

Also Ashcroft will remain because he represents the mindset of most of the Bush administration including all in Sec of Defense, most of George Jr White House advisors, and even Colin Powell's own Asst Sec of State.

Sad but true.

I think the music one pretty much hits the nail on the head. These days, esp after the WTC thing, everyone is willingly falling head over heels to be a mindless member of society. Music will head this direction too. I really dont care, as long as it is good and isnt your typical from-a-can-made-6-months-ago-bye-it-or-die Britany Spears crap.

Mabye in the US but a storm is brewing overseas. S11 merely highlighted for many countires, large parts of Europe and Asia how mypoic the US is, and the retaliation rubbed allot of people the wrong way, what the US sees as Envy is actually Fury.

Mozilla and Mozilla-based browsers will have 10% market share by the end of the year.

Howmany non-tech people have even heard of mozilla? Honestly... If it gets a larger percentage than Linux's on the desktop ill be pleasently suprised but i don't expect it.

Castro will die or become infirm and Cuba will become a Democracy. Within 5 years it will be one of the most stunning turnarounds in the world, producing not just great economic growth but remarkable achievements in the arts.

I can see VIetnam doing the same, but not so soon, but when it does it really will be the new "young tiger" of asia.

I think Indonesia might continue to drift towards fragmentation too.

[verbatim]

Originally posted by jaguar
That was interesting...
Popular music today seems to be divided into two camps, the Poppy type shit 9britey SPears et al) and the more rough 'n' tuble ramstien, Linkin Park and Limp Bizkits of this world. BUt underneath its all carefuly homogonised shit, all so carefuly tempered to nto offend anyone its not funny. And its building something. Its liek the more PC our society gets, the more it hides its anger, its hate, pain, suffering, it all gets swpt under the carpet and it seems to be building up, like live lava under a thin crust, occasionally breaking hte surface in bloody murders, school shootings, work shootings, suicides. Look at japan, the most....clen? society in the world and its kids are going nuts. THousands of girls are leaving thier homes to live on the streets because they DOn't want that kindof safe lifestyle, they are actively rejecting it, boys are going nuts, killing parents purely to see what it was like, its a generation spinning off the track. I kind of expect more, more shootings, more bizzare nutters coming out fo the woodwork, more backlase, more chinks in your "smile the world is watching" faces.

How true. I have a friend (as I do many) who gets upset at the slightest insult or disgrace of another human being. But she is not an angry person, not at all.

<rant>
But me, on the other hand, I get pissed off by PC. This is just going to get so totally offtopic you migh as well skip to the next post. I think people should stop worrying so much as to who toes they are stepping on and hope that everyone else should be a little tougher. Take a joke, people, laugh it off. The only point to PC, as I see it, is to make the racists stand out that much further. And frankly its not worth the effort. Now if a person is being trampled on it is right to help them out and tell the other person to piss off. Lets have some humility, people.
</rant>



Check out the [H]ard|Forum they seem to have done something cool for once.

[SteveDallas]

Hmm.. entertainment.. well we will have the DirecTV/Dish Network merger approved this year.. or not... that's right along with the consolidation. But if you're a satellite subscriber or you've researched it, and you live in the Philly area, you know that Comcast Sportsnet is not available except on cable TV, due to Comcast exploiting a loophole in the program access laws. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as I suspect we will see more legal manuvering and programming cancelled over stuff like this.

technology.. there are signs that we may finally be stopping the regimented lockstep upgrading to whatever Microsoft releases. If our photocopier manufacturer walked in the door and told us we had to buy new copiers, even though our old ones were working fine, we'd boot em out. Yet nobody blinks at "planned obsolesence" in the computing world. Where I work we used a DOS-based accounting program till about 2 months ago. It worked and we knew how to use it, so the CFO & I decided it was silly to upgrade. We were forced to because they ended support for the DOS version, and the Windows version is bloated and overly complex. Maybe XP will finally make people take a step back and realize that a new OS announcement from M$ does not send out death rays and make their perfectly good systems stop working.

The "next big thing".... you're basically suggesting a "generational" theory of history, that whole masses of people born close to the same time are in some sense a unit because they reacted to the same events at the same points in their lives. Bob Strauss & Neil Howe developed this extensively in some of their books, especially "Generations: The Future History of America." I think this view of history has some merit (the child-centric culture of today as a reaction against the excesses of the 70s? yeah, I might buy that) but is ultimately too simplistic. By this kind of predicting, there should have by now been a big new crisis around the turn of the century (9/11 sure qualifies) and we would be led in it by a new generation of leaders (oops, Bush & Co. aren't very new are they?).

[Undertoad]

K, you've spotted my main influence! I re-read Strauss/Howe's "The Fourth Turning" once in a while. There's also a site to discuss the book at www.fourthturning.com. The consensus there, I think, was that 9/11 was not the actual fourth turning (which is due in 2005), but a startling precursor to it.

[BrianR]

Video telephones and DVD rewinders.

Think of the implications to the phone sex industry.
Truth in advertising now applies fully.

And the DVD rewinder is my new get rich quick scheme.
There are so many dodos who still haven't learned to program their VCR
and now that DVDs are even more complicated (for them) that they'll buy
one to save wear and tear on their DVD player just like they did with VHS
rewinders of yesterday.

Brian

Video telephones bombed about 10 years ago. AT&T actually thought people would pay $1500 for that piece of shit.

Well, I know one family that did. But they didn't have anyone to use it with. Haha

[BrianR]

With the Internet pervading everything from portable laptops to my refrigerator, everyone
willl soon have broadband access to telephone and internet servers.

Maybe not quite tomorrow, but in the next ten years or so. It'll take a while to upgrade all
the copper wires to fiber optics.

Mark my words.

Brian

I believe you. That's an easy prediction. Of course it'll happen some day. But not for 2002. Maybe for 2015.

[tw]

Originally posted by BrianR
... Maybe not quite tomorrow, but in the next ten years or so. It'll take a while to upgrade all the copper wires to fiber optics.

Unfortunately this represents the thinking of Robert Allen of AT&T - and AT&T corporate mentality today. Copper wire is not the bottleneck. We have excess fiber optic. What we have is a shortage of communication industry executives who are willing to pioneer innovation. The problem is not copper wire - today as it was not copper wire when I posted this same in the Cellar in 1997(?).

The problem is a fear to abandon circuit switch technology. High communication costs are directly traceable to this obsolete technology. We knew it would become obsolete about 1990. The future is packet switch technology. Qwest understood that when they first created a network just for packet switching. But with so many fearful of innovation in the 'last mile' providers, well, how much 1990 technology broadband is on your block.

Broadband does not require fiber optic. It requires packet switch technology and the 20+ year old technologies for that existing copper wire. The problem is directly traceable to people who still think like those IBM corporate executives in 1981. Estridge's innovation plans for the IBM PC were to create the next wave machines - IBM AT and IBM PC, Jr. But if they obsoleted the IBM PC, then all that investment money for the PC would be lost. So instead they dumbed down the PC Jr so that the PC would sell for eight years. What nonsense. MBA mentalities. Making innovation decisions based upon capital ROI and not based upon the product. And so we still don't have packet switch broadband communication.

Fiber is not the future solution. Packet switched technology is the future solution. The bottleneck has created a symptom of economic recession called circuit switch technology.

[russotto]

Originally posted by tw
Fiber is not the future solution. Packet switched technology is the future solution. The bottleneck has created a symptom of economic recession called circuit switch technology.

T1, frame relay, DSL, and cable modems use packet switched technology. The dearth of broadband has nothing to do with a lack of packet switched technology. And it has a lot more to do with Verizon than AT&T.

Circuit switching still has its place; you can't really maintain the quality of voice calls without it.