December 7, 2006: Bad skiing in Alps

Undertoad · 12-07-2006, 07:56 AM

Well this is one of those I's of the D that just strike me, in a strange way. I don't know if it'll strike you too. There's nothing immediately mind-boggling about it, but it tells a very large story that gets larger the longer you think about it.

What you're looking at there is the bottom of a ski run in Val Gardena, Italy. Officials are trying to figure out whether to cancel World Cup races that are scheduled to be held there. There have already been several races cancelled this year.

In one sense, it's fascinating to see snow making and snow management reach the point where they could concentrate all of it on one particular run. Fascinating to see what they'll do to try to put on the event.

In another sense, it's evidence of a larger story, because the Alps are experiencing their warmest period in 1300 years.

Of course, you don't want to connect the picture to the global warming theories, because it's only evidence of one area during one particular month. And you don't want to specifically look for evidence of global warming, because if you look for it, you'll find it. Psychologists call it Confirmation bias, a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. If it's freezing cold, you don't put it into your pile of evidence; if it's warm, you do.

(At this point, I believe there is roughly 99% scientific consensus that warming is occurring, two-thirds consensus about man's role in it and no consensus whatsoever about what should be done.)

Sheldonrs · 12-07-2006, 08:27 AM

Global Warming Critic: "Move along people, nothing to see here". "Just a natural phenomenon".

kelso · 12-07-2006, 08:42 AM

When I lived in a ski village in Switzerland this is what we kept a pair of rock skis for, usually at the beginning and end of the winter season.

Emrikol · 12-07-2006, 09:00 AM

Duh. Simple answer: Nuclear Winter

Bromskloss · 12-07-2006, 09:22 AM

Quote:

(At this point, I believe there is roughly 99% scientific consensus that warming is occurring, two-thirds consensus about man's role in it and no consensus whatsoever about what should be done.

Really? Where did you get that from? I can absolutetly not say I'm sure myself, but I definitely have gotten another picture. Let me split it up:

Is warming occuring?
If yes, is it caused by man?
If yes again, what should be done?

I don't know what is asked for here, really. Seems like a matter of how you define "warming".
This is a better question, IMO, but I sure would think there are more than 2/3 answering "yes".
Aren't there some obvious answers to this one? Such as "do not let out CO_2 and similar"?

(How do you write subscripts, btw?)

dar512 · 12-07-2006, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bromskloss

Aren't there some obvious answers to this one? Such as "do not let out CO_2 and similar"?

That's a lot easier said than done...

Have you seen the fart thread?

9th Engineer · 12-07-2006, 09:43 AM

Right, our brilliant and well educated CEO's and other MBA's can't seem to figure out how to reduce emissions without threatening to fire half the workforce. Does anyone have any idea how depressing it is to listen to these people talk about partying 4-5 nights a week while only carrying a basic credit load, and then realize that we're going to rely on them in situations like these? Perhaps we should follow China's example and place engineers in top government and corporate positions!

Bromskloss · 12-07-2006, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dar512

That's a lot easier said than done...

Have you seen the fart thread?

Haha.

Don't try for too long or you'll turn

.

Happy Monkey · 12-07-2006, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bromskloss

I don't know what is asked for here, really. Seems like a matter of how you define "warming".

What are the options?

garren_bagley · 12-07-2006, 09:56 AM

....then the artificial snow would melt. What we have here is a lack of precipitation.

Bromskloss · 12-07-2006, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

What are the options?

The average temperature, over some period of time, rising above some specific value, mabye. What I intended to say is that I'd like to see a more specific question than "are we having a global warming".

But actually, I might have changed my mind right now. Perhaps there is no obvious definition. This would enable one scientist to say "Look, the temperature has gone awry!" while another responds "Kind of looks like the normal noisy curve to me.".

nephtes · 12-08-2006, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bromskloss

Is warming occuring?
If yes, is it caused by man?
If yes again, what should be done?

You know, I've always thought that #2 is a bit irrelevant to #3. If warming is in fact taking place, to a point that threatens the biosphere and/or us, then it seems like we should figure out what can be done regardless of whether or not it's caused by human activity or not. If greenhouse gases are in fact part of the cause, then indicates a certain set of potential solutions, but not whether or not a solution is needed.

xoxoxoBruce · 12-08-2006, 05:09 PM

You skipped a step;

1 - Is warming occuring?
1a - Is it a problem?
1b - If so how much?
2 - If yes, is it caused by man?
3 - If yes again, what should be done?

answers;
1 - yes
1a - We don't know
1b - We know some changes and their expected result, but since we don't know how warm it will get, we don't know the whole story. Plus there is bound to be things happening that nobody expected.
2 - Caused, no. Contributed to, yes. Disagreement on how much.
3 - That depends on 1a & 1b, change is not inherently bad.

That's not even it, in a nut shell. Way more complicated than that.

Undertoad · 12-07-2006, 09:57 AM

on (2) I would love to post a cite, but it's almost impossible to find anything not written by hand-wringers on either side. Last year I saw a set of poll numbers of scientists -- I think, maybe even climate scientists -- that showed an increasing trends in belief in climate change.

bhaemolytic · 12-07-2006, 10:34 AM

As for the scientific consensus on global warming, here it is, published in Science (a peer-reviewed and arguably one the most respected scientific publications in the world.)

"BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" by Naolmi Oreskes. Published in Science 3 December 2004:
Vol. 306. no. 5702, p. 1686

As the author states, "The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and failed to do anything about it.

Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen."

12-07-2006, 07:56 AM	#1
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	December 7, 2006: Bad skiing in Alps Well this is one of those I's of the D that just strike me, in a strange way. I don't know if it'll strike you too. There's nothing immediately mind-boggling about it, but it tells a very large story that gets larger the longer you think about it. What you're looking at there is the bottom of a ski run in Val Gardena, Italy. Officials are trying to figure out whether to cancel World Cup races that are scheduled to be held there. There have already been several races cancelled this year. In one sense, it's fascinating to see snow making and snow management reach the point where they could concentrate all of it on one particular run. Fascinating to see what they'll do to try to put on the event. In another sense, it's evidence of a larger story, because the Alps are experiencing their warmest period in 1300 years. Of course, you don't want to connect the picture to the global warming theories, because it's only evidence of one area during one particular month. And you don't want to specifically look for evidence of global warming, because if you look for it, you'll find it. Psychologists call it Confirmation bias, a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. If it's freezing cold, you don't put it into your pile of evidence; if it's warm, you do. (At this point, I believe there is roughly 99% scientific consensus that warming is occurring, two-thirds consensus about man's role in it and no consensus whatsoever about what should be done.)

12-07-2006, 09:43 AM	#7
9th Engineer Bioengineer and aspiring lawer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 872	Right, our brilliant and well educated CEO's and other MBA's can't seem to figure out how to reduce emissions without threatening to fire half the workforce. Does anyone have any idea how depressing it is to listen to these people talk about partying 4-5 nights a week while only carrying a basic credit load, and then realize that we're going to rely on them in situations like these? Perhaps we should follow China's example and place engineers in top government and corporate positions! __________________ The most valuable renewable resource is stupidity.

12-07-2006, 09:56 AM	#10
garren_bagley The Man Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Fort Worth, TX Posts: 1	If it were too warm..... ....then the artificial snow would melt. What we have here is a lack of precipitation.

12-08-2006, 05:09 PM	#13
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	You skipped a step; 1 - Is warming occuring? 1a - Is it a problem? 1b - If so how much? 2 - If yes, is it caused by man? 3 - If yes again, what should be done? answers; 1 - yes 1a - We don't know 1b - We know some changes and their expected result, but since we don't know how warm it will get, we don't know the whole story. Plus there is bound to be things happening that nobody expected. 2 - Caused, no. Contributed to, yes. Disagreement on how much. 3 - That depends on 1a & 1b, change is not inherently bad. That's not even it, in a nut shell. Way more complicated than that. __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

12-07-2006, 08:27 AM	#2
Sheldonrs Master Dwellar Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 4,412	Global Warming Critic: "Move along people, nothing to see here". "Just a natural phenomenon". __________________ Laugh and the world laughs with you; cry and the world laughs AT you.

12-07-2006, 08:42 AM	#3
kelso Resident-in-Training Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Colombia Posts: 7	When I lived in a ski village in Switzerland this is what we kept a pair of rock skis for, usually at the beginning and end of the winter season.

12-07-2006, 09:00 AM	#4
Emrikol Compatriot-at-Arms Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 107	Duh. Simple answer: Nuclear Winter

12-07-2006, 09:57 AM	#14
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	on (2) I would love to post a cite, but it's almost impossible to find anything not written by hand-wringers on either side. Last year I saw a set of poll numbers of scientists -- I think, maybe even climate scientists -- that showed an increasing trends in belief in climate change.

12-07-2006, 10:34 AM	#15
bhaemolytic Person Who Has Posted Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2	As for the scientific consensus on global warming, here it is, published in Science (a peer-reviewed and arguably one the most respected scientific publications in the world.) "BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" by Naolmi Oreskes. Published in Science 3 December 2004: Vol. 306. no. 5702, p. 1686 As the author states, "The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and failed to do anything about it. Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen."

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