An alliance between China and Japan----China

[Billy]

China is a kind of Confucian state, where more value is placed on
earthly profit than religiouse ethics. This may explain, at least partly,
the extraordinary performance of its economy in recent years, because people
are now allowed to seek monetary returns by following their
desire-greed-with virtuallt no restraints.

In contrast, the history of Western capitalism is characterised by
checks and balances between greed to achieve maximum profit and ethics to
suppess greed. The mutual interaction of greed and ethics, when it worked
proprely, let to the healthy development of capitalism in the west.

In China, most people are now pursuing profits wih no restraining
ethics, which seems to produce extraordinary energy and power. According to
some historians, the communist regime will fall by the end of the 21st
century because of its imperialistic nature.

Other historians claim there appears to be a 300-year cycle for Chinese
dynasties and the current one, which started at the time of the Opium War of
1840-42, might soon reach its peak and follow a declining path, possibly for
another 150 years.

One thing appears certain: China will continue to grow, at least in the
near future, and will become the most influential nation, at least in Asia.
The current regime appeas to be sustaining high growth and social stability
with little public dissatisfaction.

However such stability is only superficial and there are potentially
seriouse problems with the political regime. At present, no dissenting voice
is allowed and it is impossible to form an opposition. Those who desire a
more decentralised government are unable to openly demand a federal system.

Whine internal suppression is obvouse, most citizens appear not to oppose
it, as rapid economic development is taking place and the general standard
of living is quickly improving. But this will not last forever and internal
contradictions will surface sooner or later.

Some people say China's leaders are well aware of this, and gradual
democratisation and Westernisation will take place. However, it is unlikely,
and fundamental changes are needed to make China a fully open and advanced
society.

The question is when that will happen. Certainly not within the next five
to 10 years. China's economy could grow at about 7 per cent annum for
another 10 years, but it can not contine forever. Eventually, perhaps in 30
to 40 years, people will be sated economically-but not politically or
socially.

Internal differences and inequalities are already developing rapidaly. A
strain between coastal and inland regions is becoming apparent, and the gap
between rich and poor is widening.

Further, external pressure will play a key role in reforming China. For
example, as a member of the WTO, China will have to open its agricultural
market and encourage imports in that sector. That might cause a fundamental
change in the rural sector and clould lead to political change. China may be
collectivismm as opposed to the Western style based on globalisation will
make it unfeasible.

From South China Morning Post, Feb. 20 2003 www.scmp.com

[Undertoad]

Very interesting! (But nothing about Japan in it?)

[xoxoxoBruce]

This appears to be a Hong Kong paper. Do other papers in China print articles like this or other criticisms of the government?

[Billy]

I am very busy and tired on work.

[xoxoxoBruce]

No problem, Billy. We'll be here when you're ready.

[Billy]

What Japan should do, vis-a-vis China, is obviouse; it must accept the reality that China is radily becoming the most influential country in Asia, but it is still full of political and social contradictions.

Japan should also admit to its shared roots with China, while recognising it has chosen to embrace a Western social system and Western values.

Japan does not need to adopt a confrontational attitude towards China, but it should maintain close relations with the US to restain China's expansionary policy in Asia.

While the security treaty between the US and Japan allows Japan to avoid developing nuclear weapons, it needs a better defence system to take into account the situation on Korean peninsula.

At the same time, Japan should have a deeper understanding of China's people, itis culture ans society, abd understand that the two nations need each other.

The Sino-Japanese relationship has lasted for almost 2,000 years-the longest bilateral relationship in history-a fact that deserves appreciation and respect.

Unfortunately, the history of the Sino-Japan relationship has not been one of equal reiprocity. In much of its history, Japan has learned from China, but there was a kind of role reversal after the Sina-Japan war at the end of the 19th century - at least from Japan's viewpoint. It might be safely said that Japan's policy towards China during this period was seriously mistaken, and Japan needs to acknowledge that fact.

[Billy]

Originally posted by xoxoxoBruce
Do other papers in China print articles like this or other criticisms of the government?

There are few media like SCMP, but very leasst. The South Weekend was famouse for its criticisms. The the government limite it. The editors have been changed 5 times. Then it can not sho the criticisms now. So it is not popular as ago.

[Billy]

In fact, the partical is not right for all its contents, but at least it is reasonabke. In China, we have only about 20% negative content on media.

I will finish inputting it nest time.

[Billy]

By the same token, China should recognise the importance of Japan as the only democratic and economically advanced nation in Asia. With its refined culture, advanced technology and peace-loving attitude, Japan should be regarded as a valuable resource for China and the rest of Aisa.

In this regard, China must stop its negative campaign, which focuses only on the Japanese invasion of 1937-1945. The younger generation in China should also be taught about the political, social and economic conditions in China and the rest of the world at the same time. The two countries need to recognise their respective values and bulid long-lasting relations based on shared roots in the East, just as the US and Britain have bulit relations in the West.

Japan has to revitalise its economy and society to compete - and co-operate - with China. Deregulation is essential to encourage new industry, which will offer new employment opportunities. It is vital, therefore, to reform Japan's low-productivity sectors, some of which may move into overseas markets, including China.

That should be seen as desirable, in the same way that Japanese car manufacturers, electronic industries and the like have moved into forrign capital and technology, and Japanese companies can take advantage of the situation. At the first sight, it might appear that Chinese companies are out of performing their Japanese conterparts, mainly due to low costs. But many Japanese companies are exporting from China to Southeast Asia and the rest of the world.

Both countries are probably most concerned about their domestic employment situation, Japan needs to sonsider not only short-tern employment opportunities, but long-term population declines and immigration trends. In this, China could also paly an role for Japan.

Finally, Japan needs more effective diplomacy to deal with rapidly changing international relations in Asia and the Pacific Rim.

Political and economic strategies need to be better co-ordinated to advance Japan's free-trade agreement initiative in relation to China's skilful manoeuvring towards its own agreement in Southeast Asia.

Japan has to openly discuss where its national interests lie. This has become ever more important with the emergence of China's economic and military influence in Aisa.

Although there is unlikely to be any consensus soon on the issue, given the political and intellectual climate in Japan, the nation needs to achieve at least a critical mass to formulate national strategies and polices among political and intellectual leaders.

Based on the discussions about national interests, Japan can then effectively pursue important global objectives, suck as world peace, justice and humanity.

Writer, Toyoo Gyohten, is president of the Institute for International Monetary Affairs