North Korea fires missles

[MsSparkie]

Not as sophisicated as those of the USA or other strong military countries, but they are buying their technology somewhere.

A cry for attention? Do they plan to hold the west to ransom for not going further?

From another source: "Dubya shouldnt' do anything but tell the Chinese to rein in their chihuahua. China is the 800 pound gorilla here. Kim Il is nucking futz and needs a retroactive abortion."

Do you figure this will go anywhere more serious? Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, N. Korea.

What do you think?

[AlternateGray]

Let's hope to hell we don't do anything about it. I've often heard criticism of the president for ignoring N. Korea in favor of Iraq. THIS IS A BAD THING? It may aggravate the situation to ignore it, but I sincerely hope the next administration is the one to deal with N. Korea. Preferably an administration that doesn't kick all the Generals out of the room when they're planning a freaking war (Someone actually must have thought, "What could possibly go wrong? How hard can war be? We don' need no stinkin' Generals").

Hopefully N. Korea is just being its usual belligerent self. War would be bad there (LOTS of civilians would die. I mean LOTS. Seven figures.) What we need in Korea is a whup-ass diplomat and international backing. The problem with any sort of military conflict is, if we don't disable a lot of their military very quickly, Seoul is gone. Like, poof. And now that they have ICBM's and nukes? Yup. Ignore 'em until we have a savvy admin., keep plugging away with diplomacy of all kinds, keep the nukes on standby as a last ditch option in case Kim Il gets an itchy trigger finger. Tactical nukes, people, not strategic. I wouldn't even advocate that if it wasn't for the population of South Korea that was at risk.

Although I suppose we could always just sell South Korea to 'em. It wouldn't be the first time. And it would save lives. Capitalism in Action, heh.

Last I'd heard, China had lost much of its influence over N. Korea.

[Undertoad]

Instapundit links to this Strategypage article which says

While everyone's attention was focused on North Korean missiles, the real story is the North Korean economy. It continues to fall apart, and more North Koreans are unhappy about that. Worse yet, more North Koreans are finding out how badly they have been screwed by their leaders. Meanwhile, North Korean officials engage in even more bizarre behavior. For example, food and fuel supplies sent to North Korea have been halted, not to force North Korea to stop missile tests or participate in peace talks, but to return the Chinese trains the aid was carried in on. In the last few weeks, the North Koreans have just kept the trains, sending the Chinese crews back across the border. North Korea just ignores Chinese demands that the trains be returned, and insists that the trains are part of the aid program. It's no secret that North Korean railroad stock is falling apart, after decades of poor maintenance and not much new equipment. Stealing Chinese trains is a typical loony-tune North Korean solution to the problem. If the North Koreans appear to make no sense, that's because they don't. Put simply, when their unworkable economic policies don't work, the North Koreans just conjure up new, and equally unworkable, plans. The Chinese have tried to talk the North Koreans out of these pointless fantasies, and for their trouble they have their trains stolen. How do you negotiate under these conditions? No one knows.

I bet the US position is to do as little as possible, drag everything out.

It's not our problem. It's Japan's, China's, South Korea's. Japan is looking for a UNSC resolution denouncing the tests. This is the Team America World Police solution, telling them if they do it again they will be sent another nasty letter. No military solution here, the best approach is to wait it out as long as possible until the country dies a natural death.

[AlternateGray]

[quote=Undertoad]It's not our problem. It's Japan's, China's, South Korea's. QUOTE]

I thought our treaty with Japan included defending them against hostile nations. I'm pretty sure we have an agreement with South Korea to do the same, although I don't know how formal it is- I know during WWII
we pledged to defend their sovereignty once they were freed from the Japanese. Or something like that. 'Course, you could say North Korea wasn't in existence then, so that doesn't count, but that's a little shady.

And really, if we don't defend South Korea, it would fall to the North overnight; do we really want lil' Kimmie to have access to the South's resources? Won't it just bite us in the ass if they start really screwing with Japan, and we have to deal with it then?

[Griff]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

I bet the US position is to do as little as possible, drag everything out.

We have to because the real problem here probably isn't nukes or missiles. Isn't the real problem all that functional conventional hardware pointed South?

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by Griff

We have to because the real problem here probably isn't nukes or missiles. Isn't the real problem all that functional conventional hardware pointed South?

That is my understanding, yes, while the nukes are an issue the US isn't really concerned with DPRK launching them, but with obliterating Seoul which is within easy shelling distance. I think this comes down to more of the worry of DPRK retaliating against South Korea if we were to try to intervene in any of their arms development and that is why we're hopeful that China will start putting more pressure on Kim.

[Kitsune]

Ah, it feels good to be at bravo-plus, again.

[MaggieL]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

Ah, it feels good to be at bravo-plus, again.

You'll note that that only referrs to the alert level for the site physical security at NORAD. Doesn't have anything to do with the alert level *of* NORAD...it's not a DEFCON or an EMERGCON. If you don't live at NORAD (like SG-1 does) it doesn't affect you at all.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by MaggieL

it's not a DEFCON or an EMERGCON.

I was wondering about this, yesterday -- is the homeland security color chart a direct reflection of the DEFCON level?

I really enjoyed this simple solution to the DPRK missile problem:

Invite him over for face-to-face talks about the stuff that matters and sweeten the diplomacy with a guided tour of Universal Studios, lunch with Stephen Spielberg and a life-long subscription to Netflix and Blockbusters.

The missile crisis will be over and North Korea will become a fabulous location for Mission Impossible 4.

...or maybe I just really enjoyed the visual of Kim Jong-il throwing a bowl of kimchi at a plasma TV in anger on the evening of the 4th.

[Beestie]

That was just KJI's way of saying "Happy Fourth of July!"

Thanks, buddy - we love you too.

[Undertoad]

We defend those areas but with China's involvement, the last thing the world needs is another stupid proxy war. The news channels are all scary-like but the truth is, the missile failed (or, much less likely, was caused to fail [link: animation video of missile intercept at 60 seconds]) and hopefully our subs will be collecting the missile pieces so the good guys will know what happened and the bad guys won't.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The news channels are all scary-like but the truth is, the missile failed (or, much less likely, was caused to fail

Which goes right back to asking - have you first put yourself into the perspective of the various players in N Korea? Do you understand why S Koreans now consider America a greater threat to peace? Why would they cause missiles to fail? It is a likely scenario and a rather interestingly insightful comment from UT.

Why did they fuel that rocket last week when it had to be launched in two day or eat itself? Oh. Maybe they were going through the steps repeatedly so that everyone knew what was coming. Maybe the purpose was attention? Why would they do that if they wanted to develop offensive weapons? Or maybe N Korea is trying to address the same problem that causes so many S Koreans worry. Southerners are not worried about the North. If you are thinking long term, then a first concept in your mind is, "How will N Korea merge with S Korea just like the Germanys?" "How will it be done when entire generations of N Koreans don't even have knowledge of the world - a problem that Germany did not have?"

Did you ask yourself those questions - or even consider them? If you are thinking 'them verses us', then you have no idea what those missile launches may be about.

I suggest a review this web site in about 3 hours for informaton on their 5 July broadcast to better appreciate the so many perspectives. Appreciate that if you have a belligerent attitude of N Korean missile launches, then you don't understand what is happening AND don't understand the attitudes of both S Korea and Japan: corrected URL
Radio Times of 5 Jul 2006

To appreicate why most S Koreans consider the US a greater threat to their objectives, only then are you ready to appreciate why N Korea may be launching so many missiles. But it means you also understand both North and South Korean objectives. Again, it begs you to learn about and take on so many perspectives in a very complex political discussion. A discusson nearly terminated when someone threw a grenade in the room: "Axis of Evil".

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by tw

Why would they cause them to fail? It is a likely scenario.

How likely?

[tw]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

How likely?

Not very. But it is an interesting possibility due to what N Korea's European educated leader must do to bring his country back into the world.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by tw

N Korea's European educated leader

this is false