The hawkish case for Kerry

Undertoad · 09-20-2004, 08:09 AM

Michael Totten is one of my daily blog visits. I find him interesting because he is a swing voter. Coming from neither particular side gives him insights that partisans simply don't have, because they often have blinders on.

Today he makes The hawkish case for Kerry in Tech Central Station. (Tomorrow he makes the liberal case for Bush.)

Quote:

Whether Bush lied about Saddam's weapons or not (and I don't think he did) he does not have the political capital to make a similar case against another regime in the future. If US intelligence shows the mullahs in Iran are nearly finished with nuclear weapons, you can bet your bottom dollar the Bush Administration will lay groundwork for pre-emption. And if Bush goes to Congress to ask for permission, or to the UN and NATO to ask for help, people will laugh. And it will be devastating.

John Kerry is not interested in pre-emption now. But he is not in office. He is not responsible for the defense of the country today. He does not receive the same intelligence briefings as Bush, nor does he have advisors who suggest actual courses of action. He has campaign advisors, and they are completely different animals.

Democrats will justifiably scoff if Bush wants to wage another pre-emptive war. But they won't scoff if John Kerry does. They will sit up and take notice, and so will some people in Europe. Kerry can change the minds of skeptics. Bush can't.

xoxoxoBruce · 09-20-2004, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Whether Bush lied about Saddam's weapons or not (and I don't think he did) he does not have the political capital to make a similar case against another regime in the future.

I'd say that's a good thing. Preemption is a dangerous strategy.

Happy Monkey · 09-20-2004, 12:06 PM

And it looks as if Kerry may have begun his campaign!

lookout123 · 09-20-2004, 12:19 PM

looks like Kerry finally got a speech writer who is worth a damn.

glatt · 09-20-2004, 12:31 PM

That was a pretty good speech. But 99.9% of Americans will never read or hear it.

Happy Monkey · 09-20-2004, 12:41 PM

It was on CNN live, and I expect he'll be repeating it, and using portions of it in the debates (tentatively back up to three).

I've gotta say I've been hoping the "rope-a-dope" strategy some people were ascribing to him was real. It's looking like it may be.

lookout123 · 09-20-2004, 12:46 PM

HM - that may turn out to be true, but i'm not buying it. the reason it worked for Ali is that he was a true heavy-weight. he was world class. i just don't see evidence to tell me that Kerry has that in him.

his big chance is coming up though. Kerry is a good debater in technical terms, the concern is whether or not he can come off as likeable to the american people rather than the cold fish they think he is.

bush is not a good public speaker, especially in an impromptu fashion. the only thing he has going for him is his down home "aw shucks" act.

i wish it was Nov 3rd already so the lawyers can swoop in. that way in 6-8 weeks we'll know who the president will be.

Happy Monkey · 09-20-2004, 12:58 PM

Kerry hasn't lost an election yet... Who even thought he had a chance before the Iowa primary? It was all about Dean and Gephardt, then Bam! Kerry's it.

The debates should be interesting...

Undertoad · 09-20-2004, 01:08 PM

I was gonna say, that was a barn-burner. It was exactly right, exactly what was called for. Not name-cally "W stands for Wrong", but a strong case for why the Pres was wrong.

I for one was impressed by, finally, putting it in the frame of view of the overall terror war. "Can anyone seriously say this President has handled Iraq in a way that makes us stronger in the war on terrorism?"

It was serious, it was strong, it was smart... well done.

Pie · 09-20-2004, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad

It was serious, it was strong, it was smart... well done.

The only problem (for me) is that I kept hearing Clinton's voice in my head while I was reading it.

Kerry hired a damn fine speechwriter; I'll have to see how the candidate did with the delivery before I'll start cheering.
- Pie

lookout123 · 09-20-2004, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pie

I'll have to see how the candidate did with the delivery before I'll start cheering.
- Pie

you don't have hear it - just imagine a man's deep voice, then remove any inflection or hint of emotion. that should about cover it.

warch · 09-20-2004, 02:29 PM

Bravo Kerry on Iraq. (I saw the speech via email from the campaign today). and thanks for the links Tony. The hawk case for Kerry is great- its kind of suggesting the play of almost a good cop-bad cop scenario- the power of a new leadership to move forward with a new leverage. And I'm intrigued to hear the liberal case for Bush. Free the world- offensively?

xoxoxoBruce · 09-20-2004, 03:52 PM

Even if Bush does poorly in the debates he still has an ace in the hole.

Happy Monkey · 09-20-2004, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pie

I'll have to see how the candidate did with the delivery before I'll start cheering.

Here's the link. (CSPAN)

richlevy · 09-20-2004, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

Here's the link. (CSPAN)

I had already read the text. Nice delivery. I'm really looking forward to the debates, but I think Bush will duck them with some 'crisis'.

Bush got a lot of free passes with Gore. This time I think Kerry will press him harder.

09-20-2004, 12:06 PM	#3
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	And it looks as if Kerry may have begun his campaign! __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

09-20-2004, 12:19 PM	#4
lookout123 changed his status to single Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Right behind you. No, the other side. Posts: 10,308	looks like Kerry finally got a speech writer who is worth a damn. __________________ Getting knocked down is no sin, it's not getting back up that's the sin

09-20-2004, 12:41 PM	#6
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	It was on CNN live, and I expect he'll be repeating it, and using portions of it in the debates (tentatively back up to three). I've gotta say I've been hoping the "rope-a-dope" strategy some people were ascribing to him was real. It's looking like it may be. __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

09-20-2004, 12:46 PM	#7
lookout123 changed his status to single Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Right behind you. No, the other side. Posts: 10,308	HM - that may turn out to be true, but i'm not buying it. the reason it worked for Ali is that he was a true heavy-weight. he was world class. i just don't see evidence to tell me that Kerry has that in him. his big chance is coming up though. Kerry is a good debater in technical terms, the concern is whether or not he can come off as likeable to the american people rather than the cold fish they think he is. bush is not a good public speaker, especially in an impromptu fashion. the only thing he has going for him is his down home "aw shucks" act. i wish it was Nov 3rd already so the lawyers can swoop in. that way in 6-8 weeks we'll know who the president will be. __________________ Getting knocked down is no sin, it's not getting back up that's the sin

09-20-2004, 12:58 PM	#8
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	Kerry hasn't lost an election yet... Who even thought he had a chance before the Iowa primary? It was all about Dean and Gephardt, then Bam! Kerry's it. The debates should be interesting... __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

09-20-2004, 12:31 PM	#5
glatt ™ Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Arlington, VA Posts: 27,717	That was a pretty good speech. But 99.9% of Americans will never read or hear it.

09-20-2004, 01:08 PM	#9
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	I was gonna say, that was a barn-burner. It was exactly right, exactly what was called for. Not name-cally "W stands for Wrong", but a strong case for why the Pres was wrong. I for one was impressed by, finally, putting it in the frame of view of the overall terror war. "Can anyone seriously say this President has handled Iraq in a way that makes us stronger in the war on terrorism?" It was serious, it was strong, it was smart... well done.

09-20-2004, 02:29 PM	#12
warch lurkin old school Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,796	Bravo Kerry on Iraq. (I saw the speech via email from the campaign today). and thanks for the links Tony. The hawk case for Kerry is great- its kind of suggesting the play of almost a good cop-bad cop scenario- the power of a new leadership to move forward with a new leverage. And I'm intrigued to hear the liberal case for Bush. Free the world- offensively?

09-20-2004, 03:52 PM	#13
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	Even if Bush does poorly in the debates he still has an ace in the hole. __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

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