Huckabee and Obama Triumph in Iowa

[piercehawkeye45]

Article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us...4elect.html?hp


Distributions:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election...states/IA.html

Democrats: (100% reporting)

Barack Obama 940 37.6%
John Edwards 744 29.7%
Hillary Clinton 737 29.5%
Bill Richardson 53 2.1%
Joe Biden 23 0.9%
Others 3 0.1%
Chris Dodd 1 0.0%
Mike Gravel 0 0.0%
Dennis J. Kucinich 0 0.0%


Republicans: (93% reporting)

Mike Huckabee 38,656 34.4%
W. Mitt Romney 28,311 25.2%
Fred Thompson 15,044 13.4%
John McCain 14,759 13.1%
Ron Paul 11,216 10.0%
Rudy Giuliani 3,860 3.4%
Duncan Hunter 499 0.4%
Tom Tancredo 5 0.0%

[Radar]

Ron Paul did very well. He beat Rudy Giulani 3 to 1 and his numbers are growing. Thompson is dropping out and asking his few supporters to back McCain, but he will probably drop out too. Romney's numbers are dropping and Paul's are growing.

It was only a few short weeks ago that nobody even knew who Mike Huckabee was and now he won the Iowa Caucus. If he can do that, Ron Paul can certainly win in other states.

[LJ]

we just CAN'T have a president named Huckabee. we'll be laughingstocks.

[Radar]

We'd be much better off with a president named Ron Paul (except for his views on abortion and immigration)

[piercehawkeye45]

Ron Paul will not win. I guarantee it.

[Ibby]

I'm glad edwards beat hillary... even if only marginally

But this is probably the end of his campaign, judging by some very convincing dkos diaries I read the past few days. A first-place in Iowa would have meant HUGE funding and HUGE gains in all the polls - but anything else and his already lagging campaign faces much worse odds.
Hillary, on the other hand, is far from defeated... unfortunately.

From a different dkos story, on the other hand, from before the results started coming in, making predictions -

Obama
Edwards
Clintons

From a pure horserace view, this is the most fun set of scenarios, because they lead to the most uncertain result. I suspect Obama would get most of Clinton's African-American support, but I think it becomes a fairly wide-open contest, with the starkest contrast in messages and agendas. Obama would have a big edge in financial resources, but endorsements by people with lots of operatives and good lists, like mayors and governors, would be crucial, because they can activate GOTV networks that won't be created in the month between now and Super Tuesday. Also, labor endorsements would matter a lot, because even Obama wouldn't be able to spend massive amounts of money on paid media in that many states. Edwards has four international unions, Obama has none; would labor stay out of the race, or would they sense an opportunity for them to provide the decisive support to a candidate, thus making him even more beholden to them for their support in securing the nomination? I think it could lean slightly Obama, but in that pairing, Edwards just might win it.

Lots of things could shake up these scenarios; just remember how high McCain was riding in 2000 after New Hampshire, and how he was done in by dirty tricks and his own miscues in South Carolina. But as of today, a couple hours before the caucuses begin, these seem to me the most plausible scenarios.

Of course, by tomorrow, everything could be different.

[Radar]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Ron Paul will not win. I guarantee it.

Of course he won't. He wants to actually change things. Those in charge would never allow him to be elected. Republicans and Democrats have worked a long time to keep those out who don't follow the program of violating the Constitution, attacking civil rights, stealing from Americans, etc.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by LJ

we just CAN'T have a president named Huckabee. we'll be laughingstocks.

I really don't want another strongly religious person as president. We don't need another president who thinks he is on a mission from God. Of all the Republicans, Huckabee is the very last one I would want as president.

I have a feeling that only the uber-conservative Republicans went to the caucuses, and the moderates stayed home, and that's how Huckabee won. Gotta hope some of the others pull ahead when the more populous states get their turn.

[LabRat]

For the record, I did not caucus, nor did my husband. He was out of town, I did not plan on going. Neither of us would have chosen Huckabee, and he was the not the first choice of anyone we have spoken politics with recently.

[TheMercenary]

As long as Hitlery and Edwards loses I am good.

[lookout123]

i hear only the best presidents come from arkansas. or at least that is what i've been reading for the last 7 years.

[classicman]

^^^ ^^^

[Radar]

I don't know about the best. Clinton wasn't a great president, but he was a million times better than Bush. I'll take a tax & spend socialist over an illiterate, military deserting, recordsetting deficit spending, psycho who violates our civil rights, openly admits to treason (spying on Americans), tosses out habeus corpus, starts an unwinnable, unwarranted, unprovoked and unconstitutional war of aggression against a nation that never posed any harm to ours, who outs CIA operatives, refuses to disclose meetings with energy companies, has evidence of torture destroyed, etc...

[classicman]

That was very well written Radar - there is a lot more commonality here than you probably realized. Certainly more than I did.

[ZenGum]

Yeah, it kind of freaks me out when Radar goes and says something I agree with. It's just so... unexpected...


EDIT:

an illiterate, military deserting, recordsetting deficit spending, psycho who violates our civil rights, openly admits to treason (spying on Americans), tosses out habeus corpus, starts an unwinnable, unwarranted, unprovoked and unconstitutional war of aggression against a nation that never posed any harm to ours, who outs CIA operatives, refuses to disclose meetings with energy companies, has evidence of torture destroyed, etc...

"That is not true. I am no longer illiterate..." [/Mayor Quimby]