The Fourth Turning

Undertoad · 09-23-2001, 12:29 AM

"A spark will ignite a new mood... An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies?. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability-problem areas where, during the Unraveling, America will hav eneglected, denied, or delayed needed action. Anger at 'mistakes we made' will translate into calls for action, regardless of the heightened public risk. It is unlikely the catalyst will worsen into a full-fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while. The local rebellion will probably be quelled, terrorists foiled, fiscal crisis averted, disaster halted, or war fever cooled. Yet even if dire consequences are temporarily averted, America will have entered the Fourth Turning."

- Strauss and Howe, <i>The Fourth Turning</i>, 1996

How ya like them apples?

They were a little off. They predicted it for 2005.

But despite your initial reaction, no, this isn't some kind of Nostradamus or biblical code or etc. Strauss and Howe are historians and sociologists. Think-tank types. They were studying generations and generational effects when they found that the generations were similar in history. They found the patterns that repeated themselves, patterns of history that have been studied before, and connected their generational findings to explain them.

And predict them. America has been through several "crisis" periods, following "unravelings". The revolution. The civil war. The depression/WW2.

The conditions that existed before all those crisis periods are occurring now. 911 could be the spark that starts the next period of crisis.

Crisis sounds scary, but although it's a period of upheaval and such, it doesn't have to mean personal crisis, not necessarily. It is a societal change, a change in societal attitudes, reflected in its tastes, mores, etc.

jaguar · 09-23-2001, 12:41 AM

Anyone here read Asimov? Foundation series...hello?
This is clearly a seldon crisis

Or mabye Bin Laden is the mule.

More seriously history is littered of giants being beaten down by far smaller enemies due to thier internal weaknesses being ignored for so long. Corperate collapses are like this, it hits critcal mass where mismanagement and corruption swallow the entity combined with outside forces. The same can happen to empires. America is an empire.
Personally i expect american society to combust under the weight of the next generation of SSSCA's and DMCAs. Something has gotta snap sooner or later. Either that or your gonna have 250million happy little proles.

Argh i'm becoming a troll.

elSicomoro · 09-23-2001, 01:10 AM

Very interesting POV.

I fear that if any societal changes come our way because of what has happened, it will make us a more conservative society...sort of taking a step backward.

jaguar · 09-23-2001, 06:19 AM

Pretty much. Liberation tends to happen when there is good economic conditions and no war. 60s were the biggest liberation ever.

elSicomoro · 09-23-2001, 03:41 PM

Well, that's not completely true. The Vietnam war heated up in the late 60s. The late 70s seem to have been liberal as well, and the US wasn't in the best of shape at that time economically. Granted, I don't know much about the rest of the world at that time...

09-23-2001, 12:29 AM	#1
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	The Fourth Turning "A spark will ignite a new mood... An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies?. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability-problem areas where, during the Unraveling, America will hav eneglected, denied, or delayed needed action. Anger at 'mistakes we made' will translate into calls for action, regardless of the heightened public risk. It is unlikely the catalyst will worsen into a full-fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while. The local rebellion will probably be quelled, terrorists foiled, fiscal crisis averted, disaster halted, or war fever cooled. Yet even if dire consequences are temporarily averted, America will have entered the Fourth Turning." - Strauss and Howe, <i>The Fourth Turning</i>, 1996 How ya like them apples? They were a little off. They predicted it for 2005. But despite your initial reaction, no, this isn't some kind of Nostradamus or biblical code or etc. Strauss and Howe are historians and sociologists. Think-tank types. They were studying generations and generational effects when they found that the generations were similar in history. They found the patterns that repeated themselves, patterns of history that have been studied before, and connected their generational findings to explain them. And predict them. America has been through several "crisis" periods, following "unravelings". The revolution. The civil war. The depression/WW2. The conditions that existed before all those crisis periods are occurring now. 911 could be the spark that starts the next period of crisis. Crisis sounds scary, but although it's a period of upheaval and such, it doesn't have to mean personal crisis, not necessarily. It is a societal change, a change in societal attitudes, reflected in its tastes, mores, etc.

09-23-2001, 12:41 AM	#2
jaguar whig Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 5,075	Anyone here read Asimov? Foundation series...hello? This is clearly a seldon crisis Or mabye Bin Laden is the mule. More seriously history is littered of giants being beaten down by far smaller enemies due to thier internal weaknesses being ignored for so long. Corperate collapses are like this, it hits critcal mass where mismanagement and corruption swallow the entity combined with outside forces. The same can happen to empires. America is an empire. Personally i expect american society to combust under the weight of the next generation of SSSCA's and DMCAs. Something has gotta snap sooner or later. Either that or your gonna have 250million happy little proles. Argh i'm becoming a troll. __________________ Good friends, good books and a sleepy conscience: this is the ideal life. - Twain

09-23-2001, 06:19 AM	#4
jaguar whig Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 5,075	Pretty much. Liberation tends to happen when there is good economic conditions and no war. 60s were the biggest liberation ever. __________________ Good friends, good books and a sleepy conscience: this is the ideal life. - Twain

09-23-2001, 01:10 AM	#3
elSicomoro Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 12,486	Very interesting POV. I fear that if any societal changes come our way because of what has happened, it will make us a more conservative society...sort of taking a step backward.

09-23-2001, 03:41 PM	#5
elSicomoro Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 12,486	Well, that's not completely true. The Vietnam war heated up in the late 60s. The late 70s seem to have been liberal as well, and the US wasn't in the best of shape at that time economically. Granted, I don't know much about the rest of the world at that time...

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