An alliance between China and Japan----China

[Billy]

China is a kind of Confucian state, where more value is placed on
earthly profit than religiouse ethics. This may explain, at least partly,
the extraordinary performance of its economy in recent years, because people
are now allowed to seek monetary returns by following their
desire-greed-with virtuallt no restraints.

In contrast, the history of Western capitalism is characterised by
checks and balances between greed to achieve maximum profit and ethics to
suppess greed. The mutual interaction of greed and ethics, when it worked
proprely, let to the healthy development of capitalism in the west.

In China, most people are now pursuing profits wih no restraining
ethics, which seems to produce extraordinary energy and power. According to
some historians, the communist regime will fall by the end of the 21st
century because of its imperialistic nature.

Other historians claim there appears to be a 300-year cycle for Chinese
dynasties and the current one, which started at the time of the Opium War of
1840-42, might soon reach its peak and follow a declining path, possibly for
another 150 years.

One thing appears certain: China will continue to grow, at least in the
near future, and will become the most influential nation, at least in Asia.
The current regime appeas to be sustaining high growth and social stability
with little public dissatisfaction.

However such stability is only superficial and there are potentially
seriouse problems with the political regime. At present, no dissenting voice
is allowed and it is impossible to form an opposition. Those who desire a
more decentralised government are unable to openly demand a federal system.

Whine internal suppression is obvouse, most citizens appear not to oppose
it, as rapid economic development is taking place and the general standard
of living is quickly improving. But this will not last forever and internal
contradictions will surface sooner or later.

Some people say China's leaders are well aware of this, and gradual
democratisation and Westernisation will take place. However, it is unlikely,
and fundamental changes are needed to make China a fully open and advanced
society.

The question is when that will happen. Certainly not within the next five
to 10 years. China's economy could grow at about 7 per cent annum for
another 10 years, but it can not contine forever. Eventually, perhaps in 30
to 40 years, people will be sated economically-but not politically or
socially.

Internal differences and inequalities are already developing rapidaly. A
strain between coastal and inland regions is becoming apparent, and the gap
between rich and poor is widening.

Further, external pressure will play a key role in reforming China. For
example, as a member of the WTO, China will have to open its agricultural
market and encourage imports in that sector. That might cause a fundamental
change in the rural sector and clould lead to political change. China may be
collectivismm as opposed to the Western style based on globalisation will
make it unfeasible.

From South China Morning Post, Feb. 20 2003 www.scmp.com