Predictions for 2002

[Undertoad]

I'm recycling a K5 post here, but I think it will go over better here than it will there. Post your own predictions!

<b>Entertainment</b>

The consolidation in cable system ownership will start more serious wars in licensing fees. The number of channels available for home viewers may even shrink (for the first time in how long?) as either channel operators find it hard to make enough to stay afloat OR as cable system operators drop them as the next stage in the wars.

The "next big thing" will arrive in popular music, coalescing a new youth culture - and to the amazement of previous generations, it will NOT be about rebellion, disorder, etc. but will go in the opposite direction: orderly, clean, safe, and even to be played at moderate volumes. (Something apropos for the coming-of-age of the Barney generation.)

<b>Technology</b>

Microsoft Passport will fail to capture the interest of both the public and any large enough number of vendors to create the necessary critical mass MS needs to turn it into anything near a monopoly.

Mozilla and Mozilla-based browsers will have 10% market share by the end of the year.

<b>World</b>

The US will retain the backing of its international coalition while broadening the war on terrorism to at least one more country - which probably not be Iraq. Unrest will increase in smaller countries who wonder if they're next, with leaders who don't know which way to direct the public opinion.

Castro will die or become infirm and Cuba will become a Democracy. Within 5 years it will be one of the most stunning turnarounds in the world, producing not just great economic growth but remarkable achievements in the arts.

Colin Powell will architect a major peace initiative somewhere in the world and will win the Nobel Peace Prize.

<b>Politics</b>

The Democratic party will win seats in both houses of congress.

Ashcroft will make what is interpreted as a major mistake, will basically be told to resign, and will do so.