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perth · 06-22-2004, 05:40 PM

I have a friend who plays the lottery. Each week he buys a ticket playing the exact same numbers he always has. He believes that doing so somehow improves his chances of winning because, to paraphrase, "odds are, the numbers will come up eventually!"

I disagree, and my contention is this: each lottery drawing is a separate, self-contained incident. Previous incidents have no bearing or effect on the current incident, and the current incident will have no relationship whatsoever to the next incident. So trying to locate a pattern by examining history is, in this case, a waste of time. In my mind, there is no pattern, and can be no pattern without removing the fundamental randomness of the lottery. My understanding of statistics is admittedly very very basic, but this seems like common sense to me.

Am I wrong? Are your odds improved by playing your (un)lucky numbers every week versus letting the machine pick new ones for you each week? Opinions? Facts?

06-22-2004, 05:40 PM	#1
perth Strong Silent Type Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Fort Collins, CO Posts: 1,949	Lottery Odds I have a friend who plays the lottery. Each week he buys a ticket playing the exact same numbers he always has. He believes that doing so somehow improves his chances of winning because, to paraphrase, "odds are, the numbers will come up eventually!" I disagree, and my contention is this: each lottery drawing is a separate, self-contained incident. Previous incidents have no bearing or effect on the current incident, and the current incident will have no relationship whatsoever to the next incident. So trying to locate a pattern by examining history is, in this case, a waste of time. In my mind, there is no pattern, and can be no pattern without removing the fundamental randomness of the lottery. My understanding of statistics is admittedly very very basic, but this seems like common sense to me. Am I wrong? Are your odds improved by playing your (un)lucky numbers every week versus letting the machine pick new ones for you each week? Opinions? Facts?