Quote:
Originally Posted by Undertoad
The New Scientist story also says it's new data from Europe that drives the change in the model
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UTs premise is that the model was defective because an infected person would only infect 2.4 others.
The model did not say 2.4 people WILL be infected - as UT misrepresents. The model said IF the number was 2.4, then these very bad things are expected.
That number was only one input to the model - not a conclusion from the model as UT would have us believe. And as DanaC correctly noted. The model said if infections were only 2.4, then these bad things will happen. Apparently the infection rate is about 3. So things may be even worse.
The model, as reported, said nothing about death rates. Another data input projected that 4.4% of those infected will require hospitalization. Not death. Hospitalization. UT claims the model was defective because death rates in UK may only be 20,000. Hospitalization numbers and death numbers obviously are different.
If 60% must recover from this virus before it subsides, then we can expect maybe 7+ million Americans will eventually require hospitalization. Since nothing was done for supplies, then more nurses and doctors will die. How many? Depends on whether that 7 million arrive immediately. Or require hospitalization between now and November.
Longer means less nurses and doctors are infected. And less people die due to no ventilators.
Another input to the model notes about 8 ICU beds per 100,000 people exist. A number that would never be that low had the nation been led by someone who wanted to avert disaster.
Isolation and lockdown will do nothing to end this pandemic. Those only slow the spread so that medical people have time to obtain 'withheld and now limited' equipment. So that less nurses and doctors die.
Isolation and lockdown made more necessary because 85% of this problem is directly traceable to top management. A White House intentionally subverted any response for two months. As a result, lockdowns may be necessary in some places well into or after May.
Of course, he says it will all be over before Easter. He lies. He would have us do what is clearly wrong and dangerous. We all know who he is.
Lessons from Singapore, Hong Kong, and S Korea demonstrated a pandemic is less problematic when prevention was implemented sooner. Key is testing. No test kits were made or obtained in the US because the White House subverted necessary actions.
Some 3500 people were potential victims on the Grand Princess (outside San Francisco). Many days later, they could only find 45 test kits for that ship. What most prevents widespread infection are test kits and laboratories with equipment to process those kits.
Only place that could do testing in American was the CDC in Atlanta. Two months after the threat was obvious, expected, known, and spreading.
Also key are test kits that can identify an infected person in minutes. That was clearly defined as necessary in the NSC report (a Pandemic Playbook) that was disposed, mocked, and rescinded in 2018. We know by who.
On Tuesday, the president again lied on his propaganda network - Fox. Saying that his administration could not have foreseen the coronavirus pandemic. Even though the intelligence community bluntly told him - in no uncertain terms - it was coming on Jan 12.
Things that could have been done when this pandemic was obvious in January were poo-pooed. He even admits he will intentionally lie to make himself look better. And to make others feel better. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to a man that UT still praises.
Today, NYC has no more available ventilators. 16,000 are in military storage that Trump said would be distributed last week. They still have not shipped. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to who? Trump then said so many ventilators were not necessary. Apparently his staff scolded him. He denied his lie but hours later.
To further promote himself, Trump is moving his hundreds man entourage to Norfolk to sent off a hospital ship Comfort. Why expose hundreds more to infections? Well that ship could not move. Since facts were ignored on 12 Jan, then the ship was under reconstruction and unavailable. As of this afternoon, it still has not moved while ceremonies continue.
Standard SOP is a boss implementing what informed employees say. And not the boss telling the informed that they are wrong and evil. He is also not smarter than the Generals. He has a 30 second attention span. Another reason why more doctors and nurses may die.