|
Those initial projections were based on the information available at the time on rates of infection - and based on what we understand of how infectious the virus is - each person infected 2.5 others leading to exponential growth. We are now seeing the impact of social distancing measures in countries which are further along the path - we are also testing more so getting more data
There are many different statistical models and they are very fluid as the situation develops. One of the key factors was the potential for health systems to become overwhelmed by the speed of the disease. In some places that is happening, but these tend to be at a local rather than national level as yet.
Maybe those figures would not have been so far off the mark had so many places not gone to full or partial lockdown
|