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That isnt saying his model was wrong -
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That's a hard sell.
Going from projecting 500K to 20K (UK deaths) is quite a disparity considering there's been no vaccine or treatment, only more pathogen information and social distancing. Something wasn't right with that earlier model even for the prevailing circumstances. Variables used in the equation were probably too low of certainty to yield statistically meaningful results and shouldn't have been employed without a disclaimer.