Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Cyclefrance
The chance that the virus will mutate to become airborne between humans is a relatively big jump, as is the option that it mutates into something extremely fatal as opposed to having its potency alternatively reduced and becoming an extension of an existing flu virus, maybe more virulent but not as fatal as it otherwise could be.
|
True on both counts, but having its potency reduced isn't necessarily a good thing. Right now, something like 50-75% of the people infected can expect to die a fairly rapid death. But at least they if they die quickly, they won't go on to infect others. If the potency drops down to something like 5%, which is what the Spanish Flu was, then you can expect those 95% who don't die to walk around infecting others. The percentage of those who die of the infection may be lower, but the total number of dead can be much much higher.
Also, the chance that the virus will mutate so it can spread between humans is a huge jump, as you said. But the real danger isn't that it will happen once the birds in the West get infected. Here in the West, we keep our poultry in barns and can isolate them pretty easily. In Asia, the poultry is kept outside a lot more. And there are millions of domestic fowl in Asia. You can think of each one as a petrie dish, where an experimental strain improvement program is going on. If it mutates in Asia, it will spread from human to human like wildfire. No part of the world will be safe.
It really doesn't look too good.
I spend a fair bit of of time wondering if I should stock up on food. I figure I'd need about 2-4 months worth. That's a lot of food. And it ain't cheap. If I go that route, then I have to consider how much I'd be willing to defend that food in a real crisis, and do I plan for that by going out and getting a gun today? It would make sense to. I just really don't want to start down that path. I'm not the loony survivalist type.