Quote:
Originally posted by vsp
If I was applying for a job with 999 others, and only two of us were brought back for a second interview (myself being one of them), I'd be a hell of a lot more confident after the reduction than before...
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Well, that's not an effective parallel, since it's a decision based on information about all of the choices, and there is no random element.
Say you're outside with some friends, staring at a beautiful starry sky with a new moon. Your friend tells you that she's chosen one star from the sky, and wants you to guess which one she is thinking of. You contemplate the question for a moment, then, from the thousands of visible stars, you indicate a star in the western sky. She responds with, "Ok, I was thinking of the one you pointed out, or..." she points to another, near the south horizon... "that one." Which is more likely? There are only two stars now to choose from, so you might think the chances are 50/50, but in order for it to be the star you pointed out, you would had to have correctly guessed from all the stars in the sky.
What are the chances that you guessed right, and she just picked some random star as an alternative? And what are the chances you guessed wrong, and she's pointing out her real star as an alternative?
Another example... say you entered a contest for a $1 million prize. The company conducting the contest is bringing every entrant into their office, so you go wait your turn in line. Once you get in, they tell you that the winner of the $1 million was either you, or some lady named Blarda in Columbus, OH. You have to pay them $1000 to find out, or keep your money and risk losing the $1 million. Do you think you ave a 50/50 chance of being the winner, or do you just keep your $1000?