Followup, the latest IPCC report agrees that cyclonic storms are decreasing; notes that the only reason we think they aren't is because we're watching closer; and mentions there is some supporting science for why they may decrease during warming.
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3.3.6 Tropical cyclones and extratropical storms
Most recent studies on observed trends in the attributes of tropical cyclones are focusing on the satellite era starting in 1979 (Rienecker et al., 2011), but the study of observed trends is complicated by the heterogeneity of constantly advancing remote sensing techniques and instrumentation during this period (e.g., Landsea et al., 2006; Walsh et al., 2016). Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy (Emanuel, 2005; Elsner et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2010; Holland and Bruyère, 2014; Klotzbach and Landsea, 2015; Walsh et al., 2016). A theoretical physical basis for such a decrease to occur under global warming has recently been provided by Kang and Elsner (2015).
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