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Yelof · 05-13-2004, 04:58 PM

I think a successful exit strategy needs to get 3 things right

1) Federalism: the Kurds, the Sunni and the Shia all want to go different directions. The Kurds want to protect their self rule, the Sunni want to protect their previous privillaged position and the Shia want majority voting because they are the majority. Iraq can't be allowed to break up due to the dissabling effect that would have on Turkey, Syria, Saudi and Iran. A difficult balancing act has to be made, each of the three governments has to have some legitimacy, as does the fedral level, the US cannot now deliver that legitimacy, the UN and the Arab league could. US has to allow direct elections in each area without predujcing the result.

2) Exit date: US should announce when it is leaving and that it doesn't intend to keep bases in Iraq, the exception to this would be the Kurds, but if bases are kept in Iraq to further regional goals of the US as is now imagined by Bushco this will enrage many in Iraq. The Iraqi government that comes into being in June has to have the power to ask US withdrawl should it want. US troops should stop policing duties as soon as possible, they all ill suited to it.

3) Money: The US and international donors should continue to invest in Iraq, Iraqi debt should also be written off in a phased manner, the money should go directly to Iraqi control, American contractors are vastly over paided and the money is thus inefficiently spent, less money could be spent in this way. American companies cannot end up owninf too much of Iraqi wealth of else the locals will smell a fish.

I think the US should reduce expectations of what they are going to get out of Iraq, oil flowing rather then oil in American control, peaceful rather then peaceful and friendly, US troops out rather then US troops stationed in convient bases.

Bush is not going to get any of the above right and I hate to think what stage the mess will be in by November when kerry gets to try to fix it. But if the above isn't attempted I think the alternative is Vietnam 2 followed by Lebanon 2

05-13-2004, 04:58 PM	#31
Yelof neither here nor there Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 179	I think a successful exit strategy needs to get 3 things right 1) Federalism: the Kurds, the Sunni and the Shia all want to go different directions. The Kurds want to protect their self rule, the Sunni want to protect their previous privillaged position and the Shia want majority voting because they are the majority. Iraq can't be allowed to break up due to the dissabling effect that would have on Turkey, Syria, Saudi and Iran. A difficult balancing act has to be made, each of the three governments has to have some legitimacy, as does the fedral level, the US cannot now deliver that legitimacy, the UN and the Arab league could. US has to allow direct elections in each area without predujcing the result. 2) Exit date: US should announce when it is leaving and that it doesn't intend to keep bases in Iraq, the exception to this would be the Kurds, but if bases are kept in Iraq to further regional goals of the US as is now imagined by Bushco this will enrage many in Iraq. The Iraqi government that comes into being in June has to have the power to ask US withdrawl should it want. US troops should stop policing duties as soon as possible, they all ill suited to it. 3) Money: The US and international donors should continue to invest in Iraq, Iraqi debt should also be written off in a phased manner, the money should go directly to Iraqi control, American contractors are vastly over paided and the money is thus inefficiently spent, less money could be spent in this way. American companies cannot end up owninf too much of Iraqi wealth of else the locals will smell a fish. I think the US should reduce expectations of what they are going to get out of Iraq, oil flowing rather then oil in American control, peaceful rather then peaceful and friendly, US troops out rather then US troops stationed in convient bases. Bush is not going to get any of the above right and I hate to think what stage the mess will be in by November when kerry gets to try to fix it. But if the above isn't attempted I think the alternative is Vietnam 2 followed by Lebanon 2