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It's the difference between the popular vote and the electoral votes. They may be within a handful of points of each other in the popular vote, but Hillary is going to easily sweep the states with the most electoral votes. Not even close. The only way that won't happen is if her supporters think she has it locked up, so they stay home. But Trump is remaining so terrifying, they will come out in droves.
The NYT this week had a big spreadsheet of all the polls for all the states by several different poling companies, and every single one of them showed Hillary has around a 85% - 95% chance of winning this. The real question now is the Senate. The Democrats have a 50/50 shot of winning the Senate as well.
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