And according to
this page at eBay, I win. I have proof it was delivered. So any money I give him is because I'm a nice guy.
And crunching the numbers:
Auction total was for $280.77 (which includes shipping)
Paypal took $8.44 and sent me a payment for $272.33
Ebay will take 10% and after I pay I'll have $244.25
Shipping was $31.77 so we're down to $212.48
If I go halfsies with him, he'll get back $106.24 of his $280.77
And I'll get $106.24 for my troubles.
Hopefully a neighbor took it in for him so it wouldn't get stolen and it will still turn up.
If he gives me negative feedback, I'll still have 96.9% positive feedback.