[tw]

We are not sitting in a stable or comfortable position. Simply a Fatwah from a Grand Ayatollah could bring the cards all crashing down. We are becoming more and more indebted to Ayatollah Sistani - and yet no American has ever even met the man. For example, he ordered no American troops to attack Najaf - where Al Sayd is said to be located. Notice that we will do as he says (at least if smarter military commanders are in charge).

Our position is really that tenuous. Based upon a clear timeline of events, we will have to keep increasing troops in Iraq - by a military already repeatedly extending tours of duty far beyond what anyone intended and what the military can maintain over long term. There are no safe roads in Shi'ite or Sunni Iraq. It has become that bad.

IOW we are slowly getting boxed in by events. No hope now of even reconstituting the Iraqi military and police with people who have now heart and soul of the insurgents. Even the so called Iraqi army defected or ran when confronted by the latest uprisings - just like the S Vietnamese army.

Having so messed things up, by claiming Iraq as if it was some kind of prize, even the UN will not accept offers of help without major George Jr concessions. Concessions must be so great that insurgents will consider it a victory and welcome the UN.

Currently there is no exit strategy just as there was no other acceptable exit strategy in Somolia - other than what Clinton did.

Now for the dangerous part. Summer and the hot tempers associated are coming. We cannot even maintain Saddam's levels of electricity. However 6 (or was it 8) gas turbine generators are being installed. OK. But will there be fuel available to keep these turbines running over the summer. Yes we can protect the turbines. But we cannot even maintain a pipeline from the Kurdish north into Turkey. Pipeline still has not delivered any oil. How then will we maintain fuel to turbines via Sunni controlled lands?

When the electricity goes out, who does the little Iraqi blame? Not the insurgent who takes out the electricity. He blames the electric company - in this case called the United States. It is so easy to recruit when the big, bad US cannot even maintain electricity when most needed - a hot summer. Again, we are exposed in another no win situation with no clear solution and plenty of downside. All that remains to happen is the 5 o'clock follies.

Upside - pray like hell that the Grand Ayatollahs stay friendly. We are down to that few friends of power in country - and a large block of neutrals who could easily be converted into insurgents.

Our best hope is to get out as soon as possible - and that will mean major concessions. George Jr will never make those concessions. In fact, in his last press conference, he could not even admit to a single mistake after standing for a full embarrassing moment without a single idea. Is that arrogence? Maybe. But that means he (and clearly his power brokers Cheney, Rumsfeld, Perl, Wolfowich, Rice, Rove, Armitage, etc) will never make the necessary concessions to get out of Iraq.

Somehow this president acutally thinks the current military situation will resolve itself. Like in VietNam, the president remains naively attached to a military solution.