Quote:
from NY Times of 7 Apr 2004
And in a further indication of widening opposition to the coalition's presence, Bulgaria has asked the United States to send troops to reinforce a 450-strong Bulgarian battalion in the southern Iraqi city of Karbala, where the Shiite uprising has spread.
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Ukraninians were driven out of Al Kut. British were attacked in Basara. Nasiriyah has also suffered attacks. These are Shiite regions. Marines are having difficulty getting into Fallujah and were suprised in Ramadi - Sunni Triangle regions north and northwest of Baghdad. These are serious problems. But by themselves, they do not yet indicate a complete collapse of Iraq / American resolution. The heart of Shiite country is where we 'take the temperature' of these people.
Towns to watch are An Hindiyah, Al Hillah, Al Kufah (or Kufa), Shamiyah, Diwanihyah, and the town where Jessica was rescued - An Najaf. These areas are under control of a moderate Ayatolla Sistani whom Americans have never met and who still calls for peaceful settlement. If violence advocated by young Turk clerics (Sadr is not yet an Ayatolla) expands beyond simple convoy attacks, then all has gone to hell. Kufa is reported entirely controlled by Mr. Sadr's militia.
One major reason to be concerned for this region. Tobiasly is stationed somewhere in here. The fact that Bulgarians at the northern end of the critical region have called for help is a major blow to any peaceful American withdrawl - the so called George Jr exit strategy. Current news is not good. But these towns on the Eupharates, south of Baghdad and north of Samawah and Nasiriyah, are critical to where the Iraq invasion and occupation will go.
Tone has changed in Iraqi newspapers. They are not calling the undeclared American war a liberation. More are using words such as occupation. Today, the word intafada began appearing in Iraqi newspapers. Events in these weeks will be as significant as the battle for the Karbala gap and at Saddam International airport.
Watch both for violence in those towns and for how widespread the inevitable violence is. Complicating the issue is an Islam festival, the holiday of Arbaeen, which starts on Friday in Najaf - where Sadr is rumored to be hiding.