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Originally Posted by UT in October 2002
A lot of folks wring their hands over sustainability, but they usually make the mistake of not considering improved productivity and new innovation over that time period.
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George Will comes to this same conclusion in today's Washington Post, in a piece titled "Why doom has not materialized".
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...b19_story.html
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Originally Posted by GW
In 1972, we were warned (by computer models developed at MIT) that we were doomed. We were supposed to be pretty much extinct by now, or at least miserable. We are neither. So, what went wrong?
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The modelers examined 19 commodities and said that 12 would be gone long before now — aluminum, copper, gold, lead, mercury, molybdenum, natural gas, oil, silver, tin, tungsten and zinc.
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The modelers missed something — human ingenuity in discovering, extracting and innovating. Which did not just appear after 1972.
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It turned out that when the commodities were needed, more were always found; or in the case of one of them (mercury), replaced with something else and nobody much noticed.
Impending doom always makes an exciting story, and a story you want to repeat to others. But the real story -- actually more exciting, if you stop to think about it -- is how mankind's innovations overcome almost all obstacles. Stuff just gets better.