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A few days ago, it had only a 20% chance of becoming a named storm. It is now called Ernesto. If it follows the track of previous weather, then it should pass south of Cuba and land somewhere in the center Gulf of Mexico. Maybe by Tuesday.
Gulf has achieved water temperatures approaching 85 degrees F (30 degrees C). With even warmer water in the center. Once that 20% storm got into the warmest water in the Atlantic, it became a tropical storm. We should expect it to become a hurricane in the even warmer Gulf. Most probable target may be Mexico or south since prevailing winds have been southbound. However that could easily change by next week.
Now would be a good time to start stocking for this year's hurricane party.
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