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Undertoad · 12-13-2011, 09:07 AM

(part 2)

If you look at the regular season record against the spread you notice that it's incredibly close. Almost all teams are .500 against the spread or one game off it. Since you must win 55% of the time to make money, this is a terrible atmosphere for betting.

So what is special about the teams higher or lower than .500 against the spread. The teams you would have won money betting on this year are the Packers, Bengals, 49ers. One expected to win, one expected to lose, and one average. The teams you would have lost betting for are the Rams, Colts, Chargers. One expected to lose and two average.

What you notice above all else is that teams with a good record do well against the spread and teams with a poor record do poorly against the spread. This is exactly in line with expectations. We should think that the "expectations" wagers are now taken into account and people are betting underdogs against teams known to be good.

12-13-2011, 09:07 AM	#300
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	(part 2) If you look at the regular season record against the spread you notice that it's incredibly close. Almost all teams are .500 against the spread or one game off it. Since you must win 55% of the time to make money, this is a terrible atmosphere for betting. So what is special about the teams higher or lower than .500 against the spread. The teams you would have won money betting on this year are the Packers, Bengals, 49ers. One expected to win, one expected to lose, and one average. The teams you would have lost betting for are the Rams, Colts, Chargers. One expected to lose and two average. What you notice above all else is that teams with a good record do well against the spread and teams with a poor record do poorly against the spread. This is exactly in line with expectations. We should think that the "expectations" wagers are now taken into account and people are betting underdogs against teams known to be good.