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Well I take solace in the fact that past Iowa straw poll winners did not do so well in either the Iowa Caucus, the Republican Primary and ultimately the election. So why is everyone calling it a "Bellwether"?
Year------Ames poll winner---------GOP Nominee------President
1979---------G H Bush-------------------R. Reagan-----------R. Reagan
1987---------Pat Roberson---------------G H Bush------------G H Bush
1995----------B Dole/P Gramm tie-------B Dole----------------B Clinton
1999---------GW Bush-------------------GW Bush-------------GW Bush
200----------M Romney------------------J McCain--------------B Obama
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