Quote:
Originally posted by Undertoad
Castro will die or become infirm and Cuba will become a Democracy. Within 5 years it will be one of the most stunning turnarounds in the world, producing not just great economic growth but remarkable achievements in the arts.
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Remove the time of death constraint, and it could be a most accurate prediction. Cuba has some of Central America's most productive and resourceful people restrained too long by a series of self-serving governments, and now with enough independent thinkers (and supportive relative in FL) as to stand up and create their own businesses (as opposed to waiting for the US, Japan, and EU building those businesses).
Least likely prediction involved Colin Powell, who is restrained by large numbers of Bush extremists in State, Defense, and the White House. Also Ashcroft will remain because he represents the mindset of most of the Bush administration including all in Sec of Defense, most of George Jr White House advisors, and even Colin Powell's own Asst Sec of State. To be so successful, Powell must o be among moderates - intelligent thinkers. Currently, he works with too many who make decisions based first on political bias.
Striking is how active Tony Blair is in world affairs, and how detached the current US Administration is to most all world affairs. Tony Blair is the most likely current world leader to be nominated for a Nobel Prize.
Music will not change signficantly. Not since the first half of the 1900s have teens and adults shared so common an interest in the same music. Division of music tastes began with the Beatles and remained for decades. Remember: the Beatles, Rolling Stones, MoTown, Mamas and Papas, Tina Turner, etc - none of the biggest selling records ever won a Grammy - or were even nominated. In the 70s, it was only 1950s music artists who won Grammy awards because literally - anyone over thirty back then could not be trusted. Today, there is very little such disagreement in music tastes.
The recession will continue in 2002. There is no reason to believe that a problem so hindering this nation's productive 7% will be circumvented. That problem is centered on lack of net access and all the associated technology that will be stifled as a result. Add to that a serious transportation industry crisis, and other big industry inflexibility (ie. USX and Bethlehem Steel), a George Jr need to rescue badly managed companies that must be bankrupt (see increased tarriffs masking as punitive fines and retaliation), a sudden exposure of too many other big companies who have been living off the fat to cook the books (none though as big as Enron), another major downsizing or purchase of AT&T (maybe a bankruptcy of the little that remains), and a Congress that will endorse status quo - 2002 will be the year that we discover reality. It is overdue. Things have been a little too easy the past decade. Storm clouds have been collecting this past year and mostly unreported in the news.
During 2002, some major innovations will be created and yet unreported because of their insignificance to the general public - most likely in the fields of genetics and quantum physics (including optics). Again, science will attempt to address a need for a sufficiently sized quantum physics research tool, and again, another Bush will stifle a technology he cannot understand. Some sort of major problem, possibly a near disaster, will occur in the ISS program.
The one thing I fear most, is not likely, BUT we should not be surprised if it happens - we will attack Iraq. Should it happen, it will be bad for the US, and good for the anti-humanity extremist, Sharon, who will remain in power at the end of 2002.
A number of Central European nations will enter the EU this year. Ironically, Turkey will be denied consideration even though Cyprus will be considered (but rejected).
Mass race riots with signficant deaths will occur in a Pacific Island nation, but will be largely ignored in the US press.
Price of oil will remain at current unhealthy low prices causing major economic and political upheavels throughout the world - especially in the Middle East and in some non Middle East oil producers.
Another major dispute over nuclear waste will be fought - and nothing productive will result. Nuclear waster storage is a major problem in every nuclear power plant - a problem that will remain until a near miss problem (probably a radioactive fire) occurs somewhere.