[Lamplighter]

Originally Posted by smoothmoniker

That's just not true. Sorry, I know that everyone believes this,
but the research just doesn't back it up. In fact, sex offenders as a group have just about the
LOWEST recidivism rate of any criminal group.

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/how-likely-are-sex-offenders-to-repeat-their-crimes-258/

In my reading, the links really don't support that conclusion.
A serious problem lies in the classification of "sex criminals",
and GunMaster's thoughts (above) seem closer to what the data shows.

From your primary link:

One reason for the numerical confusion may be that supporters of sex-offender registries
who say sex offenders are more likely than not to re-offend are considering the rate
of repeat sex offenses of sex criminals compared with the rate of sex offenses of prisoners released for other crimes.
Sex criminals are less likely to be arrested for another crime of any type,
but they commit more sex crimes than other groups of criminals.
(In general, criminals are more likely to commit crimes in their category than are criminals from other categories.)

Here is the hard nut at the center of the statistical debate:

Rankings assigned by the current test – called the Static 99 –
determine which offenders must publicly declare their crime and can affect everything
from sex offenders' chances at employment to their housing options.

But the single test, which bases its risk assessment on factors such as age, marital status,
previous offenses and the victim's gender, can often be misleading even for adult male sex offenders.
And it is stacked against juvenile offenders entering the adult prison system, who,
because they are younger than 24 and unmarried, get two quick strikes against them.

For juveniles, women and child pornography offenders, "there's no research to show [the Static 99] is valid,"
said Allison Taylor, executive director of the Texas Council on Sex Offender Treatment.
"It's easy to see a 48-year-old pedophile who comes out as low-risk – we see that all the time."

The distorted rankings can lead an 18-year-old with a minor crime record who has consensual sex
with his 15-year-old girlfriend to be labeled a high-risk sex offender for life.
Conversely, a 45-year-old married woman with a history of molesting her 5-year-old niece will often be ranked low-risk.

The result is that some predatory parolees are labeled low-risk and not forced to notify the community.
Juvenile offenders with so-called "Romeo and Juliet" crimes wear these scarlet letters instead.

Further, the link to the Texas article acknowledges that the are no plans to re-evaluate the existing group
of (released) sex offenders so data from the two groups will unavoidably be merged... garbage in, garbage out.

As I read these particular links, the recidivism (re-arrest/conviction/incarceration) rate for the
individuals of real concern is about 20-25%.
Of course, that is not speaking to the additional problem of the undetected/under-reported sex crimes.