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piercehawkeye45 · 08-17-2008, 07:01 PM

I have read a lot of different sources on this and here is a basic outline. Everything I have listed is what I believe to be true but I am not 100% certain because of potential media inaccuracies, biases, and lack of ability to get the needed information.

Some underlying facts:

South Ossetia has tried to break away from Georgia since the early 90's
Russian and South Ossetia's ties are very strong
Georgia wants to join NATO
Russia does not want Georgia to join NATO
NATO and Russia are involved in power struggle
No real economic importance in South Ossetia
There is a pipeline that goes through Georgia
NATO wants pro-NATO countries in control of the pipeline
Russia would benefit from taking control of the pipeline
The US needs Russia support for other issues

The real four possibilities I see for the start of this are:

Russia
South Ossetia separatists
Georgia
NATO (US)

Keeping all four possibilities open, this longtime ethnic conflict seemed to explode when Georgian troops started attacking SO separatists and Russian "peacekeepers". Then in response, Russia invaded SO, pushing the Georgian army out, and then kept going into Georgia. I am pretty sure that Russians have stopped their advance but I am not sure.

In Poland, the US made an agreement with Poland to place an anti-missile defense during the conflict.

Parts I do not know that would be helpful:

length of time it took Russia to react
NATOs knowledge of Georgia's invasion
Whether Georgia withdrew troops from Iraq before invasion
Whether US knew/helped with Georgia's troop withdrawals from Iraq

Looking though all this I cannot find any clear cut evidence of what actually happened. I do not believe this is US or NATO backed invasion. NATO and the US have nothing to gain from SO and need Russia with some other issues. They have control of the pipeline and knowing the risk that Russia would retaliate and threaten this pipeline would force NATO countries to react, something they do not want to do seeing how they did not support Georgia when Russia invaded. There are potential conspiracy theories that NATO encouraged Georgia to test out Russian reactions for other future events but I don't see anything to really back up this claim.

I see a perfect possibility that this is just Georgia wanting to control SO and bit more than they could chew. They either did not know that Russia would retaliate or expected NATO backup. The only "success" the Georgian's had were to look weak and as the victim in the western media.

Another possibility is that this the work of SO separatists without Russian involvement that exploded out of control. They may have known that even though the Russians didn't instigate the attacks, they would have the SO's back if Georgia attacked. The timing with the Olympics is fishy, Georgia, Russia, or NATO would use that more strategically then SO, but could be a coincidence or very good planning by the SO separatists.

The last possibility would be Russian caused. I have real doubts that Russia was only SO's knight in shining armor because they went farther into Georgia then needed but that could just be Russia making a show out of Georgia to prevent any other attacks on pro-Russian ground. I am 50/50 on whether Russia could have instigated the conflict because Russia's retaliation seemed to be more symbolic then actually political. Russia does not have much to gain from this besides protecting its "territory". There is the pipeline but Russia knows full well that taking control of the pipeline would start a massive shit storm.

I don't know if this small conflict will start to anything bigger, a second cold war, or is just another small power struggle and ethnic conflict but the Polish agreement is very interesting. This very strongly hints that these missile defense systems are geared towards Russia and not Iran and that Poland sees Russia as a threat.

Hopefully this will not escalate out of control and people will remember the real victims are the numerous SO and Georgian citizens that have died in the fighting.

Edit- Merc's last article goes very well with Poland's.

08-17-2008, 07:01 PM	#72
piercehawkeye45 Franklin Pierce Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,695	Some analysis on the situation I have read a lot of different sources on this and here is a basic outline. Everything I have listed is what I believe to be true but I am not 100% certain because of potential media inaccuracies, biases, and lack of ability to get the needed information. Some underlying facts: South Ossetia has tried to break away from Georgia since the early 90's Russian and South Ossetia's ties are very strong Georgia wants to join NATO Russia does not want Georgia to join NATO NATO and Russia are involved in power struggle No real economic importance in South Ossetia There is a pipeline that goes through Georgia NATO wants pro-NATO countries in control of the pipeline Russia would benefit from taking control of the pipeline The US needs Russia support for other issues The real four possibilities I see for the start of this are: Russia South Ossetia separatists Georgia NATO (US) Keeping all four possibilities open, this longtime ethnic conflict seemed to explode when Georgian troops started attacking SO separatists and Russian "peacekeepers". Then in response, Russia invaded SO, pushing the Georgian army out, and then kept going into Georgia. I am pretty sure that Russians have stopped their advance but I am not sure. In Poland, the US made an agreement with Poland to place an anti-missile defense during the conflict. Parts I do not know that would be helpful: length of time it took Russia to react NATOs knowledge of Georgia's invasion Whether Georgia withdrew troops from Iraq before invasion Whether US knew/helped with Georgia's troop withdrawals from Iraq Looking though all this I cannot find any clear cut evidence of what actually happened. I do not believe this is US or NATO backed invasion. NATO and the US have nothing to gain from SO and need Russia with some other issues. They have control of the pipeline and knowing the risk that Russia would retaliate and threaten this pipeline would force NATO countries to react, something they do not want to do seeing how they did not support Georgia when Russia invaded. There are potential conspiracy theories that NATO encouraged Georgia to test out Russian reactions for other future events but I don't see anything to really back up this claim. I see a perfect possibility that this is just Georgia wanting to control SO and bit more than they could chew. They either did not know that Russia would retaliate or expected NATO backup. The only "success" the Georgian's had were to look weak and as the victim in the western media. Another possibility is that this the work of SO separatists without Russian involvement that exploded out of control. They may have known that even though the Russians didn't instigate the attacks, they would have the SO's back if Georgia attacked. The timing with the Olympics is fishy, Georgia, Russia, or NATO would use that more strategically then SO, but could be a coincidence or very good planning by the SO separatists. The last possibility would be Russian caused. I have real doubts that Russia was only SO's knight in shining armor because they went farther into Georgia then needed but that could just be Russia making a show out of Georgia to prevent any other attacks on pro-Russian ground. I am 50/50 on whether Russia could have instigated the conflict because Russia's retaliation seemed to be more symbolic then actually political. Russia does not have much to gain from this besides protecting its "territory". There is the pipeline but Russia knows full well that taking control of the pipeline would start a massive shit storm. I don't know if this small conflict will start to anything bigger, a second cold war, or is just another small power struggle and ethnic conflict but the Polish agreement is very interesting. This very strongly hints that these missile defense systems are geared towards Russia and not Iran and that Poland sees Russia as a threat. Hopefully this will not escalate out of control and people will remember the real victims are the numerous SO and Georgian citizens that have died in the fighting. Edit- Merc's last article goes very well with Poland's. __________________ I like my perspectives like I like my baseball caps: one size fits all.