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aimeecc · 01-10-2008, 09:42 AM

I've been to Iraq, and my opinion is... There's no easy solution.
If we pull out, the predictable out come is no more Americans killed (in Iraq at least). But what about Iraq? Will it descend further into civil war? I'd bet yes. Can Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki unify Iraq? Um, no.
Fast forward a few more years... more dead on both sides. Slightly improved security. More Iraqi forces trained and equipped... When the US pulls out, will it descend into civil war? I think so. The Iraqi forces will break down by sect, and sectarian violence will return. Hatred doesn't go away just because more security forces are trained. Will whomever the new PM is be able to unify Iraq? Probably not, because he probably got elected by whatever sect he's from. Probably Shi'a, unless they boycott the elections for some reason or another. The Sunnis will be pissed (again, still, always) and they'll start killing the Shia's who in turn will kill Sunnis... sound familiar?

When I was there, the Iraqi Minister of Interior would not talk to the Iraqi Minister of Defense. The US wanted to have the two coordinate on training and equipping (so the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army would have interoperable equipment), but they refused to even meet. How can reconstruction be done if the top leadership refuses to talk to each other?

Over simplified? Yeah, probably. But the hatred Iraqis show for one another doesn't disappear overnight. Or in 2 years. Or in 10. It doesn't matter how many we train or how stable we make it... once we leave, the hatred will surface and the killings will begin again.

Prior to the UN, most nations just exterminated or drove away whatever minority rebelled the most. Then the other minorities were too scared to rebel. Its harsh, but thats how it worked. Another common method was to kill the men or enslave them and send then to far reaches of the kingdom. Women were married to the soldiers, and the minority 'bred' out. So, the historic traditional solutions aren't going to work in Iraq today.

Iraq has to come to its own solution. Vietnam did. We may not like that they are Communist, but its stable there. Ok, so the quality of life isn't that great either. And they have restrictions on travel for their people (far greater than any restrictions the US has ever put on their citizens, may I point out?). And they don't have fredom of expression. Or too many other freedoms. But its stable at least.

01-10-2008, 09:42 AM	#11
aimeecc Super Intendent Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Arlington, VA Posts: 249	I've been to Iraq, and my opinion is... There's no easy solution. If we pull out, the predictable out come is no more Americans killed (in Iraq at least). But what about Iraq? Will it descend further into civil war? I'd bet yes. Can Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki unify Iraq? Um, no. Fast forward a few more years... more dead on both sides. Slightly improved security. More Iraqi forces trained and equipped... When the US pulls out, will it descend into civil war? I think so. The Iraqi forces will break down by sect, and sectarian violence will return. Hatred doesn't go away just because more security forces are trained. Will whomever the new PM is be able to unify Iraq? Probably not, because he probably got elected by whatever sect he's from. Probably Shi'a, unless they boycott the elections for some reason or another. The Sunnis will be pissed (again, still, always) and they'll start killing the Shia's who in turn will kill Sunnis... sound familiar? When I was there, the Iraqi Minister of Interior would not talk to the Iraqi Minister of Defense. The US wanted to have the two coordinate on training and equipping (so the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army would have interoperable equipment), but they refused to even meet. How can reconstruction be done if the top leadership refuses to talk to each other? Over simplified? Yeah, probably. But the hatred Iraqis show for one another doesn't disappear overnight. Or in 2 years. Or in 10. It doesn't matter how many we train or how stable we make it... once we leave, the hatred will surface and the killings will begin again. Prior to the UN, most nations just exterminated or drove away whatever minority rebelled the most. Then the other minorities were too scared to rebel. Its harsh, but thats how it worked. Another common method was to kill the men or enslave them and send then to far reaches of the kingdom. Women were married to the soldiers, and the minority 'bred' out. So, the historic traditional solutions aren't going to work in Iraq today. Iraq has to come to its own solution. Vietnam did. We may not like that they are Communist, but its stable there. Ok, so the quality of life isn't that great either. And they have restrictions on travel for their people (far greater than any restrictions the US has ever put on their citizens, may I point out?). And they don't have fredom of expression. Or too many other freedoms. But its stable at least.