UG, Japan would not have lasted to the end of the month. They were being attacked from both sides since the USSR declared war on them, had no supply of oil so they would be sitting ducks, and were honestly considering trying to end the war before the bombs dropped, and I have heard of pretty credible sources that said, if I remember correctly, that the Japanese tried to end the war sometime after Okinawa on conditional terms but Truman denied to pursue his goal of "unconditional surrender".
Just think about it. We cut off their oil supplies so they wouldn't have been able to have the same tactics as in the other island attacks, were getting bombed to the fucking ground by US air forces, had another enemy declare war on them who they went to NUMEROUS times to try to end the war with with an economic ideology that they could never accept and were faced a 100% chance of losing the war. To think they would have held out until true unconditional surrender is laughable. They were done before the United States bombed them.
Also, then you have to look at the motives for the United States to drop an atomic bomb on the USSR. Truman did not like Stalin and knew there was going to be an arms race after the war and wanted to have the upper hand. It makes MUCH more sense that the atomic bomb was dropped to intimidate the Soviets while giving Truman the credit of unconditional surrender. Many modern historians acknowledge this so it isn't just some conspiracy theory.
If the war went on, it would just have been become a race to defeat Japan between the US and Soviets. The US was not going to stop and by looking at the Soviet invasion, they were not going to either. On top of that, Japan did not want to become a second Germany with a North and South Japan. They had a monarchy, which would have been the direct opposite of Communism, so they would have tried to stop the Soviets even more than the United States like Germany did. The estimated million death toll its complete bullshit.
Here is a book if you are interested:
http://www.amazon.com/Racing-Enemy-S.../dp/0674016939
If you want more proof:
Quote:
On June 9, the Emperor's confidant, Marquis Kōichi Kido, wrote a "Draft Plan for Controlling the Crisis Situation", warning that by the end of the year, Japan's ability to wage modern war would be extinguished and the government would be unable to contain civil unrest.
"...we cannot be sure we will not share the fate of Germany and be reduced to adverse circumstances under which we will not attain even our supreme object of safeguarding the Imperial Household and preserving the national polity".[7]
Kido proposed that the Emperor himself take action, offering to end the war on "very generous terms". Kido proposed that Japan give up occupied European colonies, provided they were granted independence, and that the nation disarm and for a time be "content with minimum defense". With the Emperor's authorization, Kido approached several members of the Supreme Council, the "Big Six". Togo was very supportive. Suzuki and Admiral Mitsumasa Yonai, the Navy minister, were both cautiously supportive; both wondered what the other thought. General Korechika Anami, the Army minister, was ambivalent, insisting that diplomacy must wait until "after the United States has sustained heavy losses in [Ketsu-Go]".[8]
In June, the Emperor lost confidence in the chances of achieving a military victory. The battle of Okinawa was lost, and he learned of the weakness of the Japanese army in China, of the navy, and of the army defending the Home Islands.
... according to [Prince Higashikuni's] report it was not just the coast defense; the divisions reserved to engage in the decisive battle also did not have sufficient numbers of weapons. I was told that the iron from bomb fragments dropped by the enemy was being used to make shovels. This confirmed my opinion that we were no longer in a position to continue the war.[9]
On June 22, the Emperor summoned the Big Six to a meeting. Unusually, he spoke first. "I desire that concrete plans to end the war, unhampered by existing policy, be speedily studied and that efforts made to implement them."[10] It was agreed to solicit Soviet aid in ending the war. Other neutral nations, like Switzerland, Sweden, and the Vatican City were known to be willing to play a role in making peace, but they were so small they could not have done more than deliver the Allies' terms of surrender and Japan's acceptance or rejection. The Japanese hoped that the Soviet Union could be persuaded to act as an agent for Japan in negotiations with the Western Allies. There was no agreement on what peace terms Japan might accept, or when to approach the Allies. The leaders of the Army were confident of their ability to deal the Americans a crippling blow when they attempted to invade Kyūshū in late 1945.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrend...s_within_Japan