[ZenGum]

I have been unable to find the original story, but I recall that about 2 or 3 months ago there was a slight change in the collection of death statistics in Iraq. The change was that for bodies found dumped, if they had been shot from behind (i.e. back of the head, execution style) it was still logged as insurgency related, but if they had been shot from in front it was recorded as crime.
I wonder how much of the drop in statistics is due to this simple change. Some, perhaps, but I guess not much; this wouldn't affect the stats for mortar and rocket attacks, for example.
I believe that violence has actually decreased. I guess this is partly because of the surge, partly because of Iraqis confronting and defeating some hostile groups, but also very largely because a considerable amount of population shifting has taken place. There are millions displaced both internally and externally. The rival groups have been segregated, so there is less fighting.
I do believe that the surge has squeezed the lid back onto the violence for a while. But I don't believe that the insurgents/civil war forces have been defeated or pacified. Just driven into hiding, waiting for the draw-down.
Yeah, Vietnam, escalation, Tet, guerrilla tactics/strategies, public support and the lack thereof .... its all been said.