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tw · 03-23-2003, 09:39 PM

In the Gulf war, half of coalition casulties were in the transport and support troops. This in a supply line that was relatively safe and short. Here lies a big difference. Even the first major city to be attacked, Umm Qasr, still is not captured. At least combat is still ongoing. 1st Marines apparently gave up trying to take Basara and moved on quickly to catch up with Third Army.

Third Army took one (of three) major bridges in Nasiriyah, then moved on north. One bridge was important for Marines who would cross the Euphrates River and follow 3rd Army northward.

But Iraqi strategy is starting to unfold. Hide out in towns where air power and ground troops don't find them. After major combat forces pass by, then move out to attack supply units. No major cities up the trail have been secured as 1000 Marines discovered when they tried to move in and through those bridges at Nasiriyah in what was to be an undefended town.

Third Army, in the meantime, is spread out from As-Samawah to An-Najaf and probably has armored scouts or special forces in Al-Kufah, north of Najaf (where a camoflagued chemical weapon plant may have been discovered). Next major town will be Karbala which is also downstream of a major lake. This lake may be significant if created by a dam that could be blown to massively flood the Euphrates River Valley - the supply line.

Based upon highways, Third Army will cross east of the Euphrates after Karbala and move into south Baghdad. Marines will cross east of Euphrates at Samawah and head for Baghdad via Ad Diwanyah and Al-Hillah (formally known as Babylon).

But this is not open desert. Futile land with many geological features making armor tank battles more a surprise advantage for defenders. A smart Saddam would have left problems hidden in every town in lower Iraq and prepared his best divisions for combat south of Baghdad.

Army and Marines have serous problems fighting up here. Too far from secure airbases and from supplies in Kuwait and from air support on carriers. Much air support would need to airborne refuel just to get into battle. Already planes in close ground attack are coming back with battle damage - and this has only been skirmishes.

The most critical problem is fuel and delivery of airborne weapons. Unlike the Gulf war where the Saudis provided all fuel for free and quickly, instead this army will have serious fuel problems. Kuwait is supplying some fuel that must be converted - not compatible with military vehicles. Having not secured major cities on rivers, fuel supply could be an even greater problem.

During the Gulf War, the armored flanking attack - the left hook - was stopped time and time again because they did not have fuel. In fact the general in charge of III(?) Corp in that war complained that fuel supply line was 'broken'. This supply line to forces attacking Baghdad is about 4 or five times longer - and not secure. In addition, the civilians and military units are not surrendering as the George Jr administration (apparently) expected in their plans.

I expect severe warfare in the regions south of Baghdad as the Tigris and Euphrates merge onto Baghdad around Karbala, Al-Hindiyah, and Al Musayyib. Saddam's armies first want their attackers on long, expose supply lines, subject to repeated guerilla (irregulars) attack, while attacking in land where air power and long range armor is less effective.

Reporters in Kuwait are saying the population is getting nervous. They were told this Iraq invasion would be a cake walk. They were told Iraqis would surrender in mass numbers. Its not happening.

US Army top generals are finally coming to appreciate special forces. As a result, two major airfields in Western Iraq called H2 and H3 were taken. This may become important. Supply will become a serious problem which is why air access through Israel and Jordan to these airfields may be so essential.

Why are all these important? Attacking armies are suppose to outnumber their opposition three to one. This Anglo/American army has no such advantage. If the battle in S Baghdad bogs down, more combat units will need be rushed in without time to be delivered via Suez Canal, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Persian Gulf. If it gets bad, the Fourth Infantry may even need be rushed from the shores of Turkey through Israel and Jordan. Not that I expect it to get this bad. But with supply lines now so exposed, and with too many Republican Guard in terrain more suited to their equipment, then this worst case scenario cannot be discounted.

03-23-2003, 09:39 PM	#27
tw Read? I only know how to write. Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,933	In the Gulf war, half of coalition casulties were in the transport and support troops. This in a supply line that was relatively safe and short. Here lies a big difference. Even the first major city to be attacked, Umm Qasr, still is not captured. At least combat is still ongoing. 1st Marines apparently gave up trying to take Basara and moved on quickly to catch up with Third Army. Third Army took one (of three) major bridges in Nasiriyah, then moved on north. One bridge was important for Marines who would cross the Euphrates River and follow 3rd Army northward. But Iraqi strategy is starting to unfold. Hide out in towns where air power and ground troops don't find them. After major combat forces pass by, then move out to attack supply units. No major cities up the trail have been secured as 1000 Marines discovered when they tried to move in and through those bridges at Nasiriyah in what was to be an undefended town. Third Army, in the meantime, is spread out from As-Samawah to An-Najaf and probably has armored scouts or special forces in Al-Kufah, north of Najaf (where a camoflagued chemical weapon plant may have been discovered). Next major town will be Karbala which is also downstream of a major lake. This lake may be significant if created by a dam that could be blown to massively flood the Euphrates River Valley - the supply line. Based upon highways, Third Army will cross east of the Euphrates after Karbala and move into south Baghdad. Marines will cross east of Euphrates at Samawah and head for Baghdad via Ad Diwanyah and Al-Hillah (formally known as Babylon). But this is not open desert. Futile land with many geological features making armor tank battles more a surprise advantage for defenders. A smart Saddam would have left problems hidden in every town in lower Iraq and prepared his best divisions for combat south of Baghdad. Army and Marines have serous problems fighting up here. Too far from secure airbases and from supplies in Kuwait and from air support on carriers. Much air support would need to airborne refuel just to get into battle. Already planes in close ground attack are coming back with battle damage - and this has only been skirmishes. The most critical problem is fuel and delivery of airborne weapons. Unlike the Gulf war where the Saudis provided all fuel for free and quickly, instead this army will have serious fuel problems. Kuwait is supplying some fuel that must be converted - not compatible with military vehicles. Having not secured major cities on rivers, fuel supply could be an even greater problem. During the Gulf War, the armored flanking attack - the left hook - was stopped time and time again because they did not have fuel. In fact the general in charge of III(?) Corp in that war complained that fuel supply line was 'broken'. This supply line to forces attacking Baghdad is about 4 or five times longer - and not secure. In addition, the civilians and military units are not surrendering as the George Jr administration (apparently) expected in their plans. I expect severe warfare in the regions south of Baghdad as the Tigris and Euphrates merge onto Baghdad around Karbala, Al-Hindiyah, and Al Musayyib. Saddam's armies first want their attackers on long, expose supply lines, subject to repeated guerilla (irregulars) attack, while attacking in land where air power and long range armor is less effective. Reporters in Kuwait are saying the population is getting nervous. They were told this Iraq invasion would be a cake walk. They were told Iraqis would surrender in mass numbers. Its not happening. US Army top generals are finally coming to appreciate special forces. As a result, two major airfields in Western Iraq called H2 and H3 were taken. This may become important. Supply will become a serious problem which is why air access through Israel and Jordan to these airfields may be so essential. Why are all these important? Attacking armies are suppose to outnumber their opposition three to one. This Anglo/American army has no such advantage. If the battle in S Baghdad bogs down, more combat units will need be rushed in without time to be delivered via Suez Canal, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Persian Gulf. If it gets bad, the Fourth Infantry may even need be rushed from the shores of Turkey through Israel and Jordan. Not that I expect it to get this bad. But with supply lines now so exposed, and with too many Republican Guard in terrain more suited to their equipment, then this worst case scenario cannot be discounted.