[smurfalicious]

The NFL has made it clear that a decision as to Mike Vick's punishment for violation of league policies won't be made until after he pleads guilty to pending charges, if he indeed pleads guilty.

But to the extent that Vick or anyone else thinks that a suspension will be served while he is in prison, we don't think it should be that simple or easy for him.

In order to make the suspension have the intended deterrent effect on other players, the suspension should not begin until after Vick is released from custody.

Commissioner Roger Goodell has broad discretion in determining Vick's punishment. Under the Personal Conduct Policy, Goodell has sole authority to fashion the penalty, and he likewise is the person who will review the decision on appeal.

If Vick pleads guilty, he likely won't be sentenced until November or December. If his jail term starts in January 2008, he'll be unavailable for the entire 2008 season. If Goodell imposes a one-year suspension that begins after Vick is released, Vick will be knocked out for the 2009 campaign.

Though we don't think that Vick will get a lifetime ban from Goodell, we think that it will be for at least two years -- one year for dog fighting, and one year for gambling. If the suspensions start after he gets out of jail, he won't be eligible to be back on the field until 2011, when he'll be 31 years old.

Even then, we're not sure anyone will sign him -- and we have a feeling that the NFL owners will be urged by the powers-that-be never to bring Vick back to the league, since to do so would provide a constant reminder of one of the most troubling player misconduct episodes in NFL history.

(emphasis mine)

Per published reports, Mike Vick has until 9:00 a.m. EDT to accept a deal that would entail pleading guilty to pending conspiracy charges in exchange for a recommendation by prosecutors of a 12-18 month jail term...

If Vick doesn't take the deal, he most likely will be indicted on more charges next week. There still has been no mention (that we've seen) as to whether a guilty plea on federal charges will include a commitment that he won't be prosecuted in Virginia for dog fighting, animal cruelty, or gambling.