[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by bluesdave

Bruce, you underestimate the importance of ocean temperatures. While the media seems to give more time to air temperature, it is actually the ocean temperature that interests us more. Ocean temperatures can be directly linked to precipitation over land.

You misunderstood or I wasn't clear, probably the latter.
I was having trouble reconciling the 420kyr graph with all the articles about regional fluctuations of considerable magnitude. The ocean temperature makes more sense because it's slower to react and smooths the fluctuations. It's like sitting in a warm bath when someone opens the door and lets in a draft for a brief time, then closes the door and turns on a heater. The bath won't change much.
That said, the 420kyr graph doesn't show me much, except the environment has never been static and cycles constantly. Also, I'm not convinced the neat, precise numbers are accurate, but I don't care because they are not important, unlike the trends.

BTW, I had a lengthy discussion with our senior scientist about you yesterday, and our on-going debate about global warming. I explained that you are a very smart guy, and an engineer, and that you want to see "proof" that Man is involved in global warming.

Hey now, don't be calling me an engineer...tw is an engineer...I'm just an average working guy that's skeptical of dire warnings from the media. Jaded if you will, by the predictions of dire consequences from a multitude of threats, that never come to fruition.

He said that there isn't any research that on its own actually says: "Man, you did it", which is pretty much what I tried to tell you once. You have to take all of the research and draw conclusions based on the bulk of evidence. He said that no one so far has been able to come up with a single experiment that will prove or disprove man's impact. That is how we work - how science works. You have an idea that you want to test, then design an experiment to test your theory.

Thank You, it's nice to hear that scientists, unlike engineers, admit there is an uncertainty they can't eliminate entirely. Of course, that position keeps them employed, but kidding aside, the future is a gigantic puzzle with many, if not most, pieces missing. All you can do is keep looking for the key pieces, based on what you do know and gut feeling.
Every time I hear of a scientist winning an accolade, I wonder how many dedicated scientists, his work was based on, got diddly squat recognition?

In one your posts you said that the world has been warming since the last ice age (12,000 years ago). I was reminded that in fact this is not correct. Air and ocean temperatures climbed to a height at about 10,000 years ago, and then gradually declined again. This continued until around 140 years ago when temperatures started to climb again. This is where the connection to man comes in. It ties in with the Industrial Revolution.

Is this where the predictions of a return of the Ice Ages came from?....or was/is that just media hype?
Hippikos pointed out there was a dip in temperature, mid 20th century, but I think that was explained as the accumulation of aerosols(dirt) in the air from inefficient coal burning during the previous 100 years. Back when the people in Pittsburgh, PA, never saw the Sun because of the smokestacks belching soot.

We also talked about the ozone hole over Antarctica. Did you realise that it is now at its second largest size? This also affects the Earth's climate.

I did not. I've read a considerable amount of information about the ozone layer and I think I understand how and why it works. I am under the impression that variation in that antarctic hole is pretty much out of our control once halocarbons were addressed. Not so?

If you want to satisfy your engineering need for complicated equations, have a look at this page. It discusses ocean currents in the Pacific.

UM,....this is not my vocation.....I'll leave the calculations to yuze guys.

Here is a great Google resource for finding sites that look at global change. If you dig deep enough you will also find pages that discuss why reflection (reflectivity), is not as simple as some people have made out in this thread. There are many factors that interact, and by chopping down trees you do not automatically reduce air temperature because more sunlight is being reflected. You have to take into account the loss of the transpiration by the trees that no longer exist. Sorry if that sounds like double Dutch, but there is actually a complicated mathematical formula for working out the likely temperature change of a cleared area (we use it in our models).

Thanks for the link. No, it's not double dutch, it's the reality that things are very complicated because of interactions and dependencies in nature.
The other problem with turning the forest into a wheat field is the perspective. One side says look at this wonderful tool of food production, while the other side decries the loss of the bugeyed toad that lived there. Meanwhile, you are stuck in the middle trying to understand the real impact on the future, but neither side will listen to you.

I hope you will begin to see that we are not idiots. We don't publish papers with dire warnings just for the fun of it. A lot of work (and I mean a *lot* of blood, sweat and tears), goes into each and every research project.

Idiots? Never did, never will. The problem is, and has always been, the people that add hyperbole, pro and con, to your reports..... or ignore the reports and just spew the hyperbole.
You must admit, a long, difficult, even career spanning, research project that comes up with accurate data and correct conclusions, is still just a tiny piece of the big puzzle. You know, the work the guy that gets the accolades, is based on.

I really, really, really, appreciate you shedding light on a topic that's already seen enough heat from people that care more about defending their honor or making a political statement, than getting at the truth. Seriously, dude (good thing), you're a breath of fresh air.

Now, I'm not saying you're not using this thread to justify to your boss, hanging out in the Cellar when you should be working. Just that we're grateful.